Oh_If_Only

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About me Part Time trader with interest in Australian Stocks, US and Australian Stock Futures, and Commodities
Joined Toowoomba, Qld, Australia
Markets Allocation
75 % commodities 19 % stocks 3 % indices 3 % other
Top Mentioned Symbols
CL2! 13% | 5 CL1! 11% | 4 CLK 8% | 3 CLG 8% | 3
Oh_If_Only Oh_If_Only SI1!, D, Long ,
SI1!: Preparing to Long Silver SIK SI1!
70 1 0
SI1!, D Long
Preparing to Long Silver SIK SI1!

SIK18 SI1! May Futures Comex Update Apr30 Silver is trading into a down sloping wedge. The surrounding BB's are suggesting a lower boundary, downward penetration. I believe support could be found at the 16.30 level with a SL under 21Mar swing low at (say) 16.15 The long entry should be taken on an upside break and close above the yellow wedge radian and ideally ...

Oh_If_Only Oh_If_Only CL1!, 1D, Short ,
CL1!: Preparing to Short
212 0 3
CL1!, 1D Short
Preparing to Short

CL1! June2018 CLM as at Apr 29 Well, like most oil commentators, everyone has been expecting the break, either up or down, that just hasn't materialised. From my last post of Apr 22 (Chart of Apr 20), all we can see is sideways drift, so I have switched into candles to get (some) better perspective. In my last post, I commented I expected volume to ease, which ...

Oh_If_Only Oh_If_Only SI1!, 1D, Long ,
SI1!: Silver SIK May18 Possible Long Setup
69 1 4
SI1!, 1D Long
Silver SIK May18 Possible Long Setup

25 Apr 2018 Silver Comex May18 SIK2018 16.63 Price has reappeared back within its range channel after a brief flirt with the outside world. Normally rectangles are consolidation patterns with price eventually proceeding in the direction of the trend which preceeded the consolidation, which in Silver's case, looking at late Jan, was down. This would require a ...

Oh_If_Only Oh_If_Only CTN2018, D, Long ,
CTN2018: Long July18 Cotton
40 1 2
CTN2018, D Long
Long July18 Cotton

25 Apr 2018 Cotton #2 Ice July18 CTN2018 Price fall of Apr24 points to immediate support at 81.10 then 80.70 This latter support is significant and failure here (Daily close below) will open next support at 79.70 (double bottom retest) and 77.70 If the double bottom retest gives way then price will probably move down to 74.40 (minimum) or more likely 73.90 ...

Oh_If_Only Oh_If_Only CL1!, 1D,
CL1!: Trade the Price! Hold Long Until Trend Break
137 0 2
CL1!, 1D
Trade the Price! Hold Long Until Trend Break

WTI Jun18 CL1! 20 Apr $68.06 May closed Friday with a final OI of 3.7k contracts. June volume was down 140k on the day and OI reduced 3.1k Generally volume will trade lower for the remainder of this month then start to pick up early May and increase leading into contract close on May 22. So I would expect price to fade during this month, in the absence of an ...

Oh_If_Only Oh_If_Only ES1!, 1D, Short ,
ES1!: ES1! Short Jun18 S&P
67 0 2
ES1!, 1D Short
ES1! Short Jun18 S&P

Thought I would move away from Oil for a bit ... but not too far away ... ... (expecting $68 top then reverse. May CL1! rolls this Friday, volume has already moved down 216K last week to Friday on CL2! while OI has increased by about half that. I expect down this week, then up into the new month. So short til Friday on new month. Then open new long on new month ...

Oh_If_Only Oh_If_Only CL2!, 1D, Long ,
CL2!: Recoil Incomplete Retracement Short then Long
59 0 2
CL2!, 1D Long
Recoil Incomplete Retracement Short then Long

ny journey is normally predetermined with some planning (what time is my bus, flight, train?, what time should I leave home, hotel?, where will I get fuel, accommodation, meals etc). All sensible trading should have similar plans, and back up plans. Lately I have noticed considerable ES activity outside US trading hours. This must scare some traders when they are ...

Oh_If_Only Oh_If_Only CL2!, 1D,
CL2!: Jun18 WTI CL2! Oil Neutral
28 0 2
CL2!, 1D
Jun18 WTI CL2! Oil Neutral

WTI Jun CL2! It is rare for a major trend line to be penetrated and for that movement to continue the same day. So that is why I believe we will see some oscillation around this break on the Major for a day or 2 while price consolidates its latest movements. This will also be a major decision event as we have a trend break but a wedge coil under development, ...

Oh_If_Only Oh_If_Only CL2!, 1D,
CL2!: CL2! WTI Wedge wobble then Long
55 5 5
CL2!, 1D
CL2! WTI Wedge wobble then Long

Hello Supporters, Followers and General Interest Sideliners, Ok my rectangle got hit and we are sitting on major support. Take Short profit now. This price action is now taking on a developing wedge appearance. I believe price will wobble here for a few days then break to the up side. Take a Long position if the Red indicator line gets above 40 then rolls over. ...

Oh_If_Only Oh_If_Only CL2!, 1D, Short ,
CL2!: CL2! Jun18 WTI Short Update
39 2 4
CL2!, 1D Short
CL2! Jun18 WTI Short Update

Ok the small wedge I described in my post of Apr 03 ($65.11) penetrated and broke to the downside. My target was $62.06 which was achieved on Apr 04. Previous support at $64 was broken and the next 2 days were spent testing that level which was now providing resistance and this has held. This suggests further downside bounded my the downtrend line (resistance) and ...

Oh_If_Only Oh_If_Only CL2!, 1D, Short ,
CL2!: CLM18 (WTI Jun CL2!) Short
38 5 4
CL2!, 1D Short
CLM18 (WTI Jun CL2!) Short

I haven't posted for some time, but I have a (new) short position on CLM (June) which is why I am using CL2! My current interest is this rising wedge. I opened my short on the confirming bar of the 27th. I was expecting 3 to 5 bars down, thinking it would break and look for previous support at 62, but it was well supported at 64. Higher Highs and lows would ...

Oh_If_Only Oh_If_Only CL1!, D, Long ,
CL1!: WTI Long - Buy next week's dip at $US59
68 0 0
CL1!, D Long
WTI Long - Buy next week's dip at $US59

WTI Dec29 Quite a bullish looking chart! Expecting the previous Highs of $US61.40 to be tested, before we see any decent correction. Then a retest of support at $US57.40 or lower at $US 54.20 Current strength is a monthly/weekly/daily Swing High breakout, coupled with a weakening $US Buy the dips - next one should be next week around $US59.00

Oh_If_Only Oh_If_Only SB1!, D, Long ,
SB1!: Sugar Mar18
67 0 0
SB1!, D Long
Sugar Mar18

Detail is on the Chart

Oh_If_Only Oh_If_Only CLM2017, D,
CLM2017: WTI June Oil CLM7 Short/Neutral
92 0 8
CLM2017, D
WTI June Oil CLM7 Short/Neutral

Hello Supporters and Viewers, Here is new month Oil chart. Currently there is an "in-neck" bar forming which suggests further downside. Indicators are also suggesting more downside, as is the bulk of TV opinion. Looking at the main players, this view may be borne out. Call volumes are sitting 55-57 with a weekly change of +13k. Put volumes are at 50-52 with a ...

Oh_If_Only Oh_If_Only CL1!, D, Long ,
CL1!: US Oil WTI CL1! May
191 2 9
CL1!, D Long
US Oil WTI CL1! May

Oil Update. Refer related US OIl WTI CLK7 tag Hit my $52 ellipse. Open Producer positions have dropped to 638k Short and 379k Long net short 259k vs 253k Managed Money positions are 116k and 344k respectively; net 228k vs 210k last week May open Interest is 482k down from 586k I am expecting a drift upwards for the next few days then tailing off into contract ...

Oh_If_Only Oh_If_Only CLK2017, D, Long ,
CLK2017: US OIl WTI CLK7
96 0 4
CLK2017, D Long
US OIl WTI CLK7

May Oil contract rolls Apr 20. Expect a gap! Open Interest is currently 2.22m (Mar 28 CFTC Reports) Time Line: Mar 28, Mar 21, Mar 14, Mar 7, Feb 28 K (000's) Producer Longs: 410, 416, 402, 342, 323 Prdcr Shorts: 663, 678, 674, 663, 661 Prdcr Net: 253, 262, 272, 321, 338 Money Manager Longs: 345, 361, 384, 418, 429, 449 MM Shorts: 135, 128, 129, 61, 61, 44 MM ...

Oh_If_Only Oh_If_Only WES, D, Short ,
WES: AUS200 WES D Short
42 0 2
WES, D Short
AUS200 WES D Short

WES is ex dividend Mon 20 Feb by $1.03 so $43.09 - $1.03 := $42+/-. Allowing for slippage, it could trade down to $41.85 Monday before attempting to rally back to support at $42. But over the next few days I believe it will drift lower towards old resistance now support at $41.50 There is also that break away body gap at $40.98-41.18 which needs to fill. The keys ...

Oh_If_Only Oh_If_Only CLK2017, D, Long ,
CLK2017: May WTI CL K Long
123 4 8
CLK2017, D Long
May WTI CL K Long

Feb 17 18:00 AEDT March Futures expire next week hence I am using "K" May 17. As at Feb 7 Net Long CoT Managed Money stood at 360k open interest. (Source CME Group) I commented on the Weekly Chart last week, but thought I would add my view on the Daily, since I am now long oil. I believe this chart shows a bull flag on the late Nov 2016 rise. I have an up sloping ...

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ESM2018
S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURES
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DXY
US DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEX
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CL1!
LIGHT CRUDE OIL FUTURES
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ESH2018
S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURES
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SB1!
Sugar #11
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SILVER
SILVER (US$/OZ)
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AUS200
S&P/ASX index of Australian listed shares
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USOIL
Crude Oil (WTI)
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YM1!
DJI MINI FUTURES - CBTE - $5/PT
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SPX
S&P 500
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AU1!
Australian Dollar
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SP1!
S&P 500 FUTURES
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XAUUSD
Gold/U.S. Dollar
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SI1!
SILVER FUTURES
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CLG2017
LIGHT CRUDE OIL FUTURES
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WTIF2017
WTI MIDLAND (ARGUS) TRADE MONTH FUTURES
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