Bill_Howell

Bill_Howell

It seems like the SP500 still "wants" to inflate at about the same rate as during the covid years, ~14 nominal%/year (log rate 0.145)? That includes real economic growth, net exports, foreign investment, etc, but I have the suspicion that ongoing deficit spending is a key reason, in spite of rhetoric to the contrary. Nobody wants to be seen to cut spending and...

Bill_Howell Updated 

Inspired by @jbrothersjr blog : I revamped an old PineScript of mine, which you can hopefully access directly from within the chart on this posting, or perhaps I will have to post it separately. I have "hidden" many of the lines on the chart, but if they pop up then you should hide all but the . www.tradingview.com The general idea is to show the SP500...

Bill_Howell

This chart struck me as being a poetic dance. Simple, independent trend lines in gently (converging, diverging) trios, with USOIL's whirling rythm adjusting to the bands, reminding me of @fract charts. USOIL and TNX approach and disengage, eyeing each other while moving with the crowd on the floor. For some reason I'm humming Tchaichovsky's Swan Lake, rather...

Bill_Howell

For what it's worth, my 83 year semi-log detrend of the SP500 is currrently >= 2007 peak quarterly averaged levels. (semi-log detrended over the period 1926-2020, SP500 = 10^(0.792392+0.0289587*(year - 1926.25)) A separate plot (not shown here, with time-folding) puts 1929 & 2000 as the high years, well beyond the 1.618 Fib level. Although simple linear...

Bill_Howell

Here's my first shot at learning PineScript. I have adapted Kıvanç Özbilgiç's Turtle Trade PineScript : tr.tradingview.com I've also added an 83-year semi-log detrended SP500 index, which is explained at : www.billhowell.ca

Bill_Howell

I'm a crypto newbie, so the pricing relationship comparisons across time are very curious to me. Similarity of currency patterns over time on a linear scale, and crypto patterns on a logarithmic scale sort of make sense to me. But the similarity is more than I would have expected. How long can crypto maintain the logarithmic growth? Will the (linear,...

Bill_Howell Updated 

Are conventional -term analysis tools anachronistic for this crash period? Given the huge influence on the current market, and their policy perspective, I wonder if an engineeering-control perspective is actually more appropriate, and may describe what they are doing. If we take the perspective, and I am plainly incompetent in these areas, key...