TLT broke out and then turned back! Up trend is still intact so far but we will have to see how it goes next week.
VDE broke out strongly this week, ended its down trend and started its up trend. There will be pullbacks and can be buying opportunities.
This week is a reversal week (but still made a higher close than last week) and GDX closed right at the resistance. I guess it is ready to consolidate before next leg up or down.
Dollar oversold and now trying to bounce up from the lower band of the range. So far nothing yet, and the overall trend is still down.
Current rally has many similarities to May 2008. Given the downward pointing 40 week MA, it so far still looks like a bear market counter trend rally. Next week will be interesting to watch. If it continues to rally I will consider long only after it makes a higher low and a higher high.
Bounced up from the red support and now going back into the box.
Bounced up from 0.236 Fib and stalled at previous high. Both RSI (> 50) and MACD (breaks out and > 0) are favorable.
This is the second higher low on daily close, which may signal the bottom is in. I think it is a buy if it can make another higher high.
It is still consolidating in the triangle. RSI and MACD are unfavorable (want to go down). Watch for possible RSI and price break down next week.
GDX made a new high on a weekly close basis. RSI weakened a bit and can potentially be a concern but not right now, as the divergent can go even further. Next hurdle is $22.20 (not far away). If it can take it out, it may quickly spike to $25.50 level.
So far similarities to previous spikes still hold. If it has another good week next week, the case will be stronger.
I posted this chart before, this is an updated version, focusing on expansion cycles. From the chart we can see it had two long term expansions (by expansion I mean chart keeps making higher highs), one being from 1932 to 1965 lasted 33 years; one being from 1974 to 1999 lasted 25 years. We may have another one under way (starting from 2009 low). DJIA has already...
Has potential to $36 level (.382 Fib) but I want it to show strength first (go above the red lines).
I will pull trigger if ever the red lines are taken out, and target is $29.
GDX has been rising too fast and now facing strong resistance. I will not be surprise if it gives back half of the gain and falls to $16.5 level. But if dollar continues to weaken, a shallower drop or even continued rise is also likely. I will be waiting for a break out (above blue resistance) before adding new position.
VIX started to tick up and the bottom is most likely in. Using 2008 as a reference, an eight week rising VIX may be in store, and coincident with a 12% drop in SPY.
Hit support and bounced, but now facing many resistances. Overall it is still bearish. Game may change if it can make a higher low and stay above 40 week MA.
This week was in the book, and the SPY closed at a second major lower high. I suspect it is heading to $185 level, about 8% drop from current level. Might be a good idea next week to open a short position with a stop at about $206. Risk is about $3 dollars, and reward can be $10+.