Good place to short with perhaps a 3 ~ 5% stop. To long, I need it to have a convincing breakout. So far not yet.
It is more dangerous than ever, continue to hold short position and may increase it depending how it looks next week.
Since last SPY all time high (weekly close, on 5/18/2015 at $212.99), SPY is still down 1.29%, and same period TLT gained 7.85%. Even during strong rally between Feb and today, TLT just dropped a little bit. With the Fed beating the rate hike drum hard, common sense is that TLT should be sold off from now on given the expectation of higher rate. It will be a...
Open to both cases, but IMO, more likely to $180. It is a good short here as risk/award is good. Set a stop like $215. If wrong the loss is about 3%; if right, the potential gain can be more than 10%
Watch red lines for supports, but the wedge is exhausting. Even without a breakout, in extreme case, it can still push the price to $53 level. If it falls out of the wedge, a correction is likely.
TYX is still in a down trend though it is trying to rebound. It is in a triangle and can break out or break down. When it is the triangle the market is checked.
If the ratio stalls and starts to retreat, market will be in trouble.
May not mean anything, but assuming housing is repeating 2007, and same playbook applies, SPY can rise 11% from current level, with a final peak in December this year. That would put SPY at $223.
This speculative and not scientific. But I will watch RSI channel reversal when RSI reaches overbought level. This may be coincidental with it hitting .764 Fib ($53.04 level).
GDX has been consolidating (in the triangle so far) since start of May. IMO, it is holding up pretty well as it is still above 50 DMA and .236 Fib, so there appears to be no fear. Will not be surprised if it tests 50 DMA and .236 Fib (and even .382 Fib), but if the red supports can hold, that will be a very bullish sign. IMO Fed rate news are just noise. Trade...
I want to be very cautious about VPU as a correction might be underway.
This chart studies past USDJPY slumps and how long they lasted. Given the direction of 10 month MA, the long term trend is bearish, and there is no sign of bottom in sight. So we will have to assume the bearish trend will continue until we see 10 month MA improves (together with improved RSI and MACD profile).
MACD negative. I will watch the blue support line. If it breaks, it might retest the all time low.