The ratio is still bearish looking as 10 MMA is still pointing down and though it registered a higher low in June 2016, no higher high yet. The ratio has not confirm recent broad market breakout. And thus it is not all clear to long equalities and overweight bond is still warranted.
GDX has been stalled for about couple of weeks. Given the astronomical rise, a given-back of 20 - 30% is not surprising at all. I am not sure it is happening right now, but will keep an close eye on it.
nothing yet, so be patient for MACD > 0, stronger RSI, and price above 10 MMA. Losing blue support will be bad.
ASHR quietly surpassed April high ($24.86 vs. $25.03) and I think it is ready to challenge the 40 week MA and the red resistance line ($26 level). The bullish case can be confirmed once it is able to close above the red resistance (if that happens, $37 is possible).
I want to see price to go above 10 MMA and the red resistance and make a higher high. But looks like that will be something in 2017. May never happen. Who knows but we will see.
VWO has been outperforming since the start of the year. So far, the overall trend is still up but showing signs of crack. RSI and MACD are both breaking. the ratio itself is still above the support, and the MA cross is yet to generate a sell signal.
SPY was flat but substantially underperformed TLT the past week(ratio down about 2% in the week). So it still warrants to be cautious.
So far so good. Might be working on a retest but as long as the blue support holds, I am fine with it. Good chance next stop is $26 area.
A breakout from a rising wedge is very bullish. Highly likely the pink line can be hit soon ($37 level). Red line should provide solid support.
The coming week is critical as a breakout can quickly push it to $35 area. If it hesitates it may continue to consolidate.
TIP breaks out of the range. Since bottomed last December, TIP appreciated almost 7%. Rising inflation expectation is good for precious metal and commodities.
If the long term support broke, the rate may fall very fast very deep like in 2008. So the coming August should be interesting (and critical). So I think we need hedge that possibility somehow.
SPY keeps making all time highs but has not been confirmed by SPY/TLT ratio.This means it continues to be appropriate to hold a mixed allocation to bond and stock, and still over weight bond (the ratio is still in its down trend). In a similar setup in 2008, the ratio rolled over in the 5th week, and we will see how it behaves in the coming week.
At double resistance with RSI and MACD divergence.
Bouncing up from long term support from oversold, so it looks good. Want to see a positive MACD, a stronger RSI and maybe a more solid bottom.
RSI overbought and diverged, expect this index to pullback a bit (20 ~ 30%) and there may be another leg up.
TYX has been falling and now is right on support. RSI is in oversold area. I will not be surprised if it start to bounce from here to 2.5 level. That will be a bad case for long bond like TLT.
Dollar has been vibrating in a range and it is about to challenge the 40 week MA. Note RSI and MACD appear to be changing direction.