Chart says all. updated prior post with corrected line positions given interval price changes. C wave length and duration mimics A wave. The H&S pattern appears to be an extension of the correction but note it is also a pennant, or continuation pattern. The trend: still down, entering a fifth intermediate of primary third wave. expect double bottom to retest 233...
Wow what an amazing jump! Does it mean the bears are back in hibernation? Doubtful. Boxing Day's record 1k rally was just an impressive a-leg of an a-b-c minor correction after a punishing 3rd Intermediate wave in the current bear wave. Trend is still Bear! Note in chart the abc pattern extension to 0.50 Fibo coincides with the 0.618 Fib retracement of the...
Merry Christmas Traders! We find SPY near the termination of a minor fifth subwave v of Intermediate wave (3), which in turn is part of a larger primary wave One. Primary Wave One should terminate near SPY ETF price 219 on/about 31 Dec 18, after a 28-day decline from 3 Dec wave origin. Chart describes constituent components of Primary Wave One, including a...
Typically after a flag or pennant breaks a rally sets up to retrace the breakdown and is rejected from lower trendline. Extreme bearishness is prevalent. Expect Christmas Crash. Sorry Santa! Just an idea, not investment advice, GLTA!
Chart says all. Gaps tend to get filled. After that... hmmm. Trade at your own risk this isn't advice, just a half-baked idea...
Twain observed in Pudd'nhead Wilson; "October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February." How about a December crash? If this model plays out Santa will by cryin'. Notice rejection this week at TL. Downtrend continues....
JW if this 3-day rally is another fakeout, has earmarks of a bear flag rally, very hard to call a bottom yet, consolidating, fluctuating. Trading at area where price has provoked bear reaction, the EW model suggests we might expect retest of lows, and possibly a lower low. Filling the gap down from 249 was expected, top of the gap = pivot & resistance; breakout...
Chart self-explains. Could sure get lower but behavior suggests a bottom retest may be in at 24421. Wait on 4hr to confirm it. Could get a strong lift into December off these lows to form a right shoulder before the bears really tear into it. Unpredictable now. Just an idea not trading advice- trade at your own risk! GLTA!
Ominous portents. Broadening top in September led to the microcrash in October and US Equities have been struggling since. November usually one of the best months for stocks, has only been a down month in 3 years of past 20; those were in Bear Markets... Some very fine textbook chart formations appearing over past few months. The Zig-Zag Correction has led to...
We thought the downdraft in October marked "ABC" on chart was the correction. But... We got another pivot at the .62 Fibo, where B turned, now X turned again. Looks like we got a larger WXY wave. ABC was the W that formed first bottom. If this pattern completes, expect -33 on the ABC leg to approximate the X-Y leg. This would put Sand P down around 252. For...
Midterms Tuesday. From MW: "Since 1946, there have been 18 midterm elections. Stocks were higher 12 months after every single one. Every single one. That’s 18 for 18. Even though we’ve had every possible political combination in the past 72 years. Republican president with Democratic Congress. Democratic president with Republican Congress. Republican president...
Panic abated somewhat, still chance for another selloff around elections this week, expect explosion after, or just straight into next leg up. Tentatively looks like we might have an Elliott wave 1 past week, with a 2 on Friday, might sell a bit more Mon/Tues; if it plays out, then 3 will be magnificent. Bull isn't done running yet, but 2019 will likely bring...
Today's 400pt lift in Dow was unconfirmed by volume which declined as price rose. VOLUME DIVERGENCE violates basic Dow Theory: The session volume in each day's trading reveals nearly all the session volume was traded before the thin air lift at the end of day. A move against trend must be confirmed by increasing volume to be a true trend change, else it is...
Nearly there. Probably another rough day or two to get crushed down to support and complete the Zig-Zag correction (WXY). Elliott ABC wave near support. Expect a hammer Doji, a deep spike with reaction lift. Maybe Tues/Weds. Who knows, utterly unpredictable atm. Spy might get down to 253. Nas- who knows?! If index breaks and closes below the blue pivot support...
If rally fail to break the descending TL here look for rejection around 24920 - 24980. Could go off really hard if no breakout. Just an idea. Let's see... This is not investment advice. Trade at your own risk- GL!
Index might be in an expanded irregular flat EW, with descending wedge an indicator of diminishing supply as the bears grind down to the 0.62 Fibo retrace line. In Elliott Wave theory, in a strong bull market the ABC correction 'C' wave can terminate above the bottom of A, and may appear as an expanded flat correction, rather than a deeper C that carries below...
Just an idea. Not sayin this is goin down like this but I'm afraid it could play out this way. Breakdown thru the neckline will signal sell. Rejected retest will confirm it. IF this goes down, then the bull is over. Prices are just darn high. Stupid high. Fear may soon overcome greed; if so, hope will be dashed. Here's a Forex link for the pattern. Break...
Submitted for your consideration and amusement. At the signpost up ahead- the next stop: the Twilight Trading Zone. The Century TL reaching back to 1915 before US entry into the Great War, projects true US equities valuation at a nominal PE. Absent FAANG inflation and PEs discounting earnings until the 22nd century, Dow fair value is a little over 2k. A 90%...