US 30: EW3 Starting up Retracement to ATH?
Midterms Tuesday. From MW:
"Since 1946, there have been 18 midterm elections. Stocks were higher 12 months after every single one. Every single one. That’s 18 for 18. Even though we’ve had every possible political combination in the past 72 years. Republican president with Democratic Congress. Democratic president with Republican Congress. Republican president and Congress. Democratic president and Congress.
Since 1946, stocks have risen an average of 17% in the year after a midterm. And if you measure from the yearly midterm lows, the results are even better. From their lows, stocks jumped an average of 32% over the next 12 months. For perspective, that’s more than double the average performance for stocks in all years. We’re also entering the third year of a presidential term, which is historically the strongest year for stocks."
Dow and Sand P flat for the year now. Time to get back on track. Economy = strong, no recession in sight. Earnings - good, mostly real good. Mostly. Some surprises.
IF we are in an EW impulse wave THEN we had wave 1 last week for 1k pips and wave 2 pullback Friday, lasting into AM Monday session, when the bulls showed up.
Looks like we got a wave 3 starting up which I charted at 1.618 Fibo projecting extension to 26260 area with soft landing on wave 4 (alternating wave theory) and a fifth wave bullup to retest alltime highs. Call me crazy, but the impossible has already happened this year- twice. The zigzag correction has run its course, movin' on up!
2019 should run pretty strong until May when the cracks will begin to show. Subsequent bear will likely be longer than average bear, stronger than average bear, Yogi.
Here's the reference link: www.marketwatch.com/...ld-war-ii-2018-11-05
This is not investment advice, trade at your own risk, good luck!
"Since 1946, there have been 18 midterm elections. Stocks were higher 12 months after every single one. Every single one. That’s 18 for 18. Even though we’ve had every possible political combination in the past 72 years. Republican president with Democratic Congress. Democratic president with Republican Congress. Republican president and Congress. Democratic president and Congress.
Since 1946, stocks have risen an average of 17% in the year after a midterm. And if you measure from the yearly midterm lows, the results are even better. From their lows, stocks jumped an average of 32% over the next 12 months. For perspective, that’s more than double the average performance for stocks in all years. We’re also entering the third year of a presidential term, which is historically the strongest year for stocks."
Dow and Sand P flat for the year now. Time to get back on track. Economy = strong, no recession in sight. Earnings - good, mostly real good. Mostly. Some surprises.
IF we are in an EW impulse wave THEN we had wave 1 last week for 1k pips and wave 2 pullback Friday, lasting into AM Monday session, when the bulls showed up.
Looks like we got a wave 3 starting up which I charted at 1.618 Fibo projecting extension to 26260 area with soft landing on wave 4 (alternating wave theory) and a fifth wave bullup to retest alltime highs. Call me crazy, but the impossible has already happened this year- twice. The zigzag correction has run its course, movin' on up!
2019 should run pretty strong until May when the cracks will begin to show. Subsequent bear will likely be longer than average bear, stronger than average bear, Yogi.
Here's the reference link: www.marketwatch.com/...ld-war-ii-2018-11-05
This is not investment advice, trade at your own risk, good luck!
Trade active:
If this is an ABC countertrend wave it will end here and reverse. If we have a true impulse it will climb again. Worrisome trend in RUT diverging from this pattern and the weak volumes and poor breadth, RSI diverging all suggest it is an ABC, let's see.
Trade closed manually:
Price has violated EW principle already '4' cannot pierce '1' so it's an ABC countertrend in a primary downtrend, likely entering bear market.
