Evolving pattern does not meet Gartly criteria of 0.618 AB leg. Batwing would have a shallow AB , usually 0.5 - 0.618, with 0.50 XB. Therefore it's a Butterfly pattern. Look back at Nov 2018 to see the Bearish Bat, which was imperfect in Fibo. Market tanked anyway, if it wants to sell, it will sell, regardless of the Fibo. Now we find ourselves in the...
Chart says all. Looks quite Bearish but no capitulation as of yet. C waves tend to be fierce and furious. See what it does when Gap fills from 9/04. Bulls will likely return for another crack at ATH if they can hold the line near 26200. SPX should find support near 2900, at least in this first downdraft. Second support at 2860; breakdown through these levels will...
Volume lessens on rising prices, increases on downdrafts. RSI divergent. Small caps have reached .50 Fibo retrace off September's lower high. SP500 and Dow have a gap to fill down to the 0.50 Fibo. Three-day rally feels like a B wave, chaotic and widely fluctuant. If so, expect C wave down to the gapfill at the breakout point from Cup near 26300/SandP 2942. A...
Risk is terrific for both longs and shorts at this juncture; I am sidelined, patiently and prudently waiting. In a previous idea I hypothesized a double bottom possibly in October. It is possible the markets are grinding out a near-term bottom at this consolidation zone now. Markets hold tenaciously to this consolidation zone beneath ATH. The September pullback...
Simple chart, two double tops in July, September. Index repeatedly rejected from 3020 level. Divergence in other indices- Dow, NQ, RUT all below their ATHs. We got a right shoulder forming from Apr > Jul > Sep. May was an ABC, August a meat-grinding see-saw; IMO October will be a vertical drop to double bottom. I do expect ONE more rally attempt before...
Last time we had Cup & Handle in Jun/Jul the market roared up 2k pips. Now we got a monster consolidation in August, with a perfect Cup formation; the countertrend Handle should follow shortly, as an EW 5-wave minor impulse is concluding now, in the right wall of the Cup. Another 2k pips from this level would target Dow price over 29K. SPX could push over 3200....
Chart says all. Going to new ATH? Tar box 302-304. Could eke out a nominal new ATH before throwover. SPX saw 3026 before; maybe it can give us 3046 this time up. At 3K we have gotta be close to the end of this run IMO. Divergences popping up, sector rotation, RSI fading; today they rotated out of NQ into RUT, buying 'bargains.' Hell idk maybe it will just go...
After a couple of modest down days we see that intraday QQQ did close the gap from 9/5/19 and bounced to fill today's gap down as well. Index is primed and loaded for final push to double top and possible new ATH. I bought Sep 190 calls and sold the Friday 13 192's to hedge. Looks like end of a Fourth Minor Wave, IMO; The EW is now evident and P/C ratio is up...
Inverted H&S clearly evident, now has broken above TL from consolidation zone; forming the Cup & Handle. EW (not shown, very unreliable to graph out of consolidation) suggests we may be completing Minor Wave 3, so expect some pullback before another burst higher. An extended Fifth Minor Wave could break 27400 for a new ATH. Trades very near the 0.786 Fibo now up...
Equities forming a pennant. Usually these are continuation patterns. A measured move down from flagtip would expect to make a bottom half of flag-pole equal to top half, for about 1800+ pips; this would drop index near 24200, or a bit less. IMO the Megaphone Trend is still dominant. A breakout to upside is still possible if global events magically resolve...
Details in chart. The inverted Head & Shoulders is highlighted with cups, but you really can't miss the big red candles. Gonna get a huge bear flag from this, IMO. Closed my shorts early, but never sorry to give the other guy the last dollar. Reactionary wave should appear within a few days rising from oversold condition. IMO this rascal is gonna pop up hard...
Simple idea. Triangle is ominous as these typically break thru the floor of wedge, although a rally is not out of realm of possibility, seems less likely every day. Fourth trip to bottom of the wedge usually breaks the floor. There is that gap to fill, which might occur Tues; if not, 1/8 gaps never fill, so maybe not a good bet IMO. Getting more bearish daily....
US Equities in downtrend off ATH from July. Price action strongly mimics last year's selloff behavior. Pull chart right to see the 2018 Megaphone. Targets in chart are determined by TL defined by these Megaphones. Price labels are estimates and actual prices of course will vary; past performance is no guarantee of future results! 2019 Megaphone is Bigger and the...
There it is; double bubble under the TL; test of resistance. Critical juncture: may reject from Tl and sink further, or breakout higher to rally. Maximum risk now; holding no positions. Longer term: Extremely Bearish. Trade at your own risk! GLTA!
Chart says all. IF the TL holds today expect vigorous retrace, a fool's rally; then the End. Trade at your own risk, this is not financial advice. GLTA!
Here we go again! Expect bearish next week, brief relief rally after FOMC, possible retest ATH; then the real drawdown. Just another crackpot idea; trade at your own risk! GLTA!!
Just an idea. Not sayin' this is goin' down; maybe we already saw ATH today on 7/15. But, maybe a brief pullback to lower channel TL culminating on 7/23 will provoke a feeding frenzy coupled with FOMC rate cut to push the darn thing to 30K. Could easily rise another 6-8% in euphoria and carefree complacency that prevails atm. If this plays out the subsequent...
Had a Fib convergence on 10/08. If index holds this level expect turn to higher price leading up to FOMC. 0.25 rate cut is already baked in. Not betting on this one. IMO index is approaching the ATH and Bear market to follow. This pennant points at 23 July next convergence. Too soon to short IMO; watch, wait, go to the beach! Trade at your own risk. I'm out on...