We have breakout of the consolidation pattern and bullish RSI. Look back (scroll left) to see the double top Sep 20 - Oct 03 2018; note RSI diverged with lower reading on ATH 3 Oct even as price made higher high. We knew then it would sell. We don't have that yet a year later; we have an ATH; but RSI still not maxed c/w prior highs, I do expect a pullback to...
In Mid-Nov there is a critical inflection point at 27300 at support from consolidation zone and rising TL in this bullish impulse. At this writing, DJIA index rests just at or above long TL reaching back to Jan 2018 top. Equities have advanced for >5 weeks. A small, brief pullback seems likely. If it gives a price relaxation back to the breakout zone at 273,...
Update to prior idea. note the triple top Fibonacci ratio is a perfect 1.05 in both valleys. Got a shooting star up here. Rollover imminent IMO! Short at your own risk and don't blame me if it fools us again! This is just an observation, not advice. GLTA!
OF course this is pure guesswork and sheer speculation. Maybe the ATH is already in on Friday. Although futurez are up as I write this, their fair values point to nearly the same prices we saw near the close Fri PM. I marked this chart idea as Neutral, although it's really short-term bearish and longer-term bullish, until it becomes Bearish again in 2020. A lot...
Simple idea. In May & Aug VIX tapped 12 briefly before volatility returned. Here we are again. There is a bullish trend ongoing with successively weaker spats of volatility. Next jump might tap 18-20. The interval of rotation appears to be three months; May +3mo > Aug +3mo > November. Prices at ATH; rotation soon seems likely. This is rank speculation and in no...
Historical view. What's in store? ATL: 8.5. Typical reversal zone: ~10-11. Price now: ~13. This year we've had volatility spikes when VIX <12-13. Are we in for another frantic bull run that crushes VIX sub-10? Historically after three rate cuts markets rise 5-10%. Will we see SPX 3300?! If so, shorts will be just destroyed. Something to ponder... I've been...
Chart says all. Been shorting too soon as usual, but the 7-wave Triple combo is a rare and confusing pattern. Overnight ES futurez tapped the intersection of long-term TL and near-term TL in this wedge; they converged at 3056. China says they were just kidding and wont get serious with the Great Donald, such a big surprise! Expect to fill the gaps from past...
Chart says all; a few salients: Long Trend: The entire movement of late 90's up to 2009 was a giant Zig-Zag correction of the 90's Bull Market. The 2000 dot-com bubble burst provoked a mighty B wave lasting several years, that ultimately culminated in the 2008/09 crash, when prices fell below 2000 levels in a great 'h'. The current cycle began 09 March 2009 with...
Trades in a descending wedge channel all year. Former R now = S. NB: 0.618 Fib repeatedly rejected. Blue box marks pivot target; may reject sooner.
Trades exactly along the TL formed by Sep double tops. Just a guess- maybe it will sell a bit from here. I bought 10 each SPY 300P Nov 25s; QQQ Nov 29 194s and DIA Nov 22 268 puts. In $5 bear spreads against Friday's weeklies, reduces cost by ~10%. If it sells great; if not, collect the weeklies. This is NOT advice; trade at your own risk! GLTA!
Look under the twin arrows at the Doji how they pierce TL then reject- four times now. In downtrend along upper edge of triangle pennant; flagpole bottom half ~ equal to upper in these patterns. Just an idea; trade at your own risk; GLTA!
Pretty compelling graphic; the 1.621 BD resonance strongly suggests imminent rollover. This pattern has been long in developing and bulls are reluctant to give up gains. I expected retest of TL at 3010; got to 3003 on Tuesday and fell back to the 0.786 Fib line. Still can have a washout top to test that TL, might get bullish Friday. This feels like an extended,...
The 1.618 resonance with AB = CD is compelling. This is extremely Bearish. Expect a big selloff imminent. Larger picture is inside a Bullish Butterfly formation; IF this completes and plays out as projected; the termination of Bat's Wing will be a terrific Buy Opp IMO. This isn't advice; trade at your own risk! GLTA!
Chart shows all. Got a channel with pennant forming near bottom TL. Approaching tip of pennant, must break one way. If break is up, can go to 29K by Jan 2020. If down... bottomless pit. Foolish optimism on trade driving another huge gap; is it an Exhaustion Gap? Or Gap & Go? If Initiation Gap, then we gonna get a breakout; but all gaps fill eventually. R/R so...
See my related post on SPY. It's a Butterfly pattern. Current price is retesting the breakdown TL. I am short this index at 2900. The wedge grows narrow, rapidly tightening. Break imminent IMO. Won't be a good time to buy long until Butterfly completes. Expected termination of CD Leg around 2720-2740, by Monday 28 October. Go long after price break completes for...
Graph says all. PE = NMF, they're losing money and stock's been in down channel for quite a while; but the dividend yield at $44 is 6.4%; analyst expectations estimates agree DOW is going to earn more next year in FY 2020 with resizing and trimming, efficiency improvements &tc. Revenue is growing; From $3.4 RPS FY 2019 is expected to go to $4.4 RPS next year and...
See related post in the 15 min chart for bear flag; here see it really clearly in 1-hr; it is possible the Gap from Tues could fill before heading lower; or just break down from tip of wedge. Friday should give us a pretty clear signal. Entered some shorts; add if it bounces higher; this is a Butterfly pattern CD leg; it is taking the form of an ABC correction....
Similar idea to my Dow US 30 post. Sand P is statistically a stronger model, from larger numbers. NB: This model is imperfect as the XD spread should be 1.27, but we got a real nice 0.62 Fibo AB retrace of the XA leg up. Note the perfect double top Fibo = 1 (was within a few pips, a 99.9% retrace). Real life is like that, we take what the market gives us. The...