DJIA Long Cycle: In Fifth of Fifth Primary EW
Chart says all; a few salients:
Long Trend: The entire movement of late 90's up to 2009 was a giant Zig-Zag correction of the 90's Bull Market. The 2000 dot-com bubble burst provoked a mighty B wave lasting several years, that ultimately culminated in the 2008/09 crash, when prices fell below 2000 levels in a great 'h'. The current cycle began 09 March 2009 with the initiation of a long string of Minor and Intermediate EWs, interspersed with ABC corrections and more recently, another great zig-zag that began in Feb 2018. This pattern is not yet complete; we are enjoying a 3-Drives end game run to ATH, now in the second Drive. A minor ABC in November to test lower TL of wedge should provoke the final Drive to the Top, culminating in Jan 2020 where the long TL intersects the rising wedge from 2018.
In near-term: We have Bearish divergence between indexes now even as go-go stocks eke out new marginal ATHs, most of the market is already declining; breadth is poor and volume quite low, on Monday 28 Oct volume of 1.5k m shares was half normal and the VIX actually increased on a new ATH for SPX; NQ Composite got within four pips of it's ATH, but DOW is still over 300 off its high, and RUT never got close. DJT transports were actually negative, a leading indicator for the broader market, which may have a small incremental gain left, or perhaps not. There are not a lot of buyers up at these stratospheric prices! Certainly no accumulation is taking place here.
Outlook: Uncertainty in Feb/Mar 2020 of an election year with an impeachment ongoing and the disappointment that a finalized bona fide deal with China is years away, if ever, coupled with Fed decision to hold rates to 2% inflation, no more or less, and weak ERs from a sluggish economy will certainly weigh on global financial markets and likely create a rather Bearish mood. Distribution will be protracted and furious.
Concluding Projection: The completion of a Primary ten-year cycle in Jan or Feb 2020 will likely usher in a new Bear market. A Correction of 20-30% is both possible and likely. The Megaphone projects Dow ~20K by mid-2020 to complete the zig-zag pattern, a 7K pip selloff > 26%. As elections near, uncertainty will pass after Nov 2020 and the next Bull cycle might begin in 2021, if the Bear lasts only nine months. A three-year Bear would be a tough trading environment, everyone gets killed from constant whipsawing volatility. If we get a 1929-style correction then a long grinding Bear with persistent erosion of value is quite possible. A Warren administration would be the death knell!
This is just another observation and does not constitute trading advice; seek that from a qualified advisor please, and trade at your own risk! GLTA!
Long Trend: The entire movement of late 90's up to 2009 was a giant Zig-Zag correction of the 90's Bull Market. The 2000 dot-com bubble burst provoked a mighty B wave lasting several years, that ultimately culminated in the 2008/09 crash, when prices fell below 2000 levels in a great 'h'. The current cycle began 09 March 2009 with the initiation of a long string of Minor and Intermediate EWs, interspersed with ABC corrections and more recently, another great zig-zag that began in Feb 2018. This pattern is not yet complete; we are enjoying a 3-Drives end game run to ATH, now in the second Drive. A minor ABC in November to test lower TL of wedge should provoke the final Drive to the Top, culminating in Jan 2020 where the long TL intersects the rising wedge from 2018.
In near-term: We have Bearish divergence between indexes now even as go-go stocks eke out new marginal ATHs, most of the market is already declining; breadth is poor and volume quite low, on Monday 28 Oct volume of 1.5k m shares was half normal and the VIX actually increased on a new ATH for SPX; NQ Composite got within four pips of it's ATH, but DOW is still over 300 off its high, and RUT never got close. DJT transports were actually negative, a leading indicator for the broader market, which may have a small incremental gain left, or perhaps not. There are not a lot of buyers up at these stratospheric prices! Certainly no accumulation is taking place here.
Outlook: Uncertainty in Feb/Mar 2020 of an election year with an impeachment ongoing and the disappointment that a finalized bona fide deal with China is years away, if ever, coupled with Fed decision to hold rates to 2% inflation, no more or less, and weak ERs from a sluggish economy will certainly weigh on global financial markets and likely create a rather Bearish mood. Distribution will be protracted and furious.
Concluding Projection: The completion of a Primary ten-year cycle in Jan or Feb 2020 will likely usher in a new Bear market. A Correction of 20-30% is both possible and likely. The Megaphone projects Dow ~20K by mid-2020 to complete the zig-zag pattern, a 7K pip selloff > 26%. As elections near, uncertainty will pass after Nov 2020 and the next Bull cycle might begin in 2021, if the Bear lasts only nine months. A three-year Bear would be a tough trading environment, everyone gets killed from constant whipsawing volatility. If we get a 1929-style correction then a long grinding Bear with persistent erosion of value is quite possible. A Warren administration would be the death knell!
This is just another observation and does not constitute trading advice; seek that from a qualified advisor please, and trade at your own risk! GLTA!
Comment:
Fed decision today is priced in market already. Overbought and due for technical correction. SPX has gap to fill down at 2949; SPY target 295, DOW ~26800 should find support at TL for the last push to record ATH. Possible that exuberance could just drive higher from here; risk is always present; R/R favors a pullback.
Trade active:
Holding short. Hit 27775 today, dam close to tar 27797... the tops of Three Drives now both at 1.05 Fibo relation. IMO rollover imminent... shooting star on 11/7; let's see!
