Historical view. What's in store? ATL: 8.5. Typical reversal zone: ~10-11. Price now: ~13.
This year we've had volatility spikes when VIX <12-13. Are we in for another frantic bull run that crushes VIX sub-10?
Historically after three rate cuts markets rise 5-10%. Will we see SPX 3300?! If so, shorts will be just destroyed. Something to ponder...
I've been expecting pullback to lower TL in the rising SPY wedgie to 295, but it has been stubbornly resilient... will new money flow in?
Let's be careful! Not investing advice; trade at your own risk; GLTA!
This year we've had volatility spikes when VIX <12-13. Are we in for another frantic bull run that crushes VIX sub-10?
Historically after three rate cuts markets rise 5-10%. Will we see SPX 3300?! If so, shorts will be just destroyed. Something to ponder...
I've been expecting pullback to lower TL in the rising SPY wedgie to 295, but it has been stubbornly resilient... will new money flow in?
Let's be careful! Not investing advice; trade at your own risk; GLTA!
Comment:
This story gives me pause; the odds are stacked against shorts right now:
Trade active:
This monthly chart creeps along c/w the daily on same topic; we in session 21 since vix drop <12; is due to pop real soon, holiday week thin trading makes bullish algos run better; after the birds are done, expect some return of vol on 12/2!
Positioned in VIX Jan $15 and April $20 calls, these are both affordable and fair risk IMO.
Positioned in VIX Jan $15 and April $20 calls, these are both affordable and fair risk IMO.
Trade closed: stop reached:
VIX bounced to 18 then fell below 17 promptly. There's not enough fear in market yet; stopped these positions out, maybe premature but scalped a nice $4 gain coming up from $13(!)
Comment:
Perspective: In Dec 2017 VIX was crushed down to 9; I reckon we might expect that to happen again after this minor correction completes. The current move might take the form of an A-B-C, after the B wave to 3110-3120, C could push index to next support at 3030 - 3040. A decline of that magnitude would provide the stimulus to boost prices to the next and probably final top, a true ATH of ATHs. A wave was near 70 pips, C would be similar.
Warning: when VIX goes under 10, the danger zone is extreme for long investors; the coiled up bear energy at these extreme inflection points will provoke extreme bearish momentum, as we saw in Feb 2018. This market is completing a long-term cycle, in which VIX has been progressively crushed for years (scroll chart back!); there is now over ten years' worth of bear momentum coiling up, a megaphone points at ~50% decline.
We should expect one more VIX crush deep into the danger zone! The 1.618 Fib extension from August breakdown is SPX 3212; the 2.0 Fib extension is 3326. This is the target box for final push IMO.
Warning: when VIX goes under 10, the danger zone is extreme for long investors; the coiled up bear energy at these extreme inflection points will provoke extreme bearish momentum, as we saw in Feb 2018. This market is completing a long-term cycle, in which VIX has been progressively crushed for years (scroll chart back!); there is now over ten years' worth of bear momentum coiling up, a megaphone points at ~50% decline.
We should expect one more VIX crush deep into the danger zone! The 1.618 Fib extension from August breakdown is SPX 3212; the 2.0 Fib extension is 3326. This is the target box for final push IMO.
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