ForexAnalytixPipczar

ForexAnalytixPipczar

Even though the ZN 10yr notes look like they want to reverse higher (lower yields) we can't forget how bearish this long term trend is. While below 109'05 the bears remain in control

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We have been anticipating a reversal of the EURUSD at the longer term 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1.0960's level on the Week Ahead video and in recent daily FACE shows. This rejection of the 61.8% retracement was pronounced this week, however, the next could days will be critical for this reversal to take place. Tomorrow, although a US holiday, will...

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The US Dollar index is at major technical support. We are trading around the 38% retracement of the July 2023 lows to the October 2023 highs. The recent pullback Also is at the previous descending channel trend line (see 2023 price move until September). Also, just below price is the 50% retracement, 200dma and potentially bull flag pattern support.  Even though...

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The NASDAQ100 is breaking higher to end the week near the highs. The fact that it is breaking channel resistance should allow for a retest of the descending trend line from the all time highs. That comes in at a confluence of the 127% extension of the most recent drop, and also the 161% extension of the August 2022 to October 2022 drop as well. But let's not...

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The big question everyone is asking today (and yesterday) is "Is the bottom in the bond market?" So far, following the FOMC decision yesterday, the market seems to think so. And following the jobs report (Non Farm Payroll number) tomorrow, we will probably have a good idea if the bounce is sustainable, or we are about ready to resume the downtrend, and yields...

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If you think the world is not a safe place and looking for a place that traders may "hide out," you may want to check out the NZDCHF. The USDCHF is back at resistance, and with the CHF a traditional "safe haven" currency, it may reassert its role in the coming days. NZDUSD is trading heavy, and the NZD is usually regarded as a risk currency, especially in an...

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The USDJPY hit a new high for 2023 and quickly reversed with some downside follow through today ahead of the weekend. A headline came out earlier about Japan's CPI outlook for fiscal 2024 might be raised by the Bank of Japan next week (Nikkei news) and this, alongside some headlines out of the Middle East, may be driving traders out of JPY short positions.  This...

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The USDMXN 18.5000 level has capped the rally in recent weeks. And you can see the strong descending trend line capping the market. Even the rally this week has tried to keep a "lower high" but we think this is just a byproduct of the descending trend line. A break of the 18.5000 level would target 18.8700, but 20.2100 would be more likely.  While above the 200dma...

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The AUDUSD is building a bearish wedge ahead of the CPI data due out on the 25th in Australia. The market is a little nervous as last week the inflation data out of New Zealand came in well below expectations. The AUDUSD is building a bearish wedge intraday, with lower highs and consistent lows. A break above the .6380 level or below the .6285 level would cause a...

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The NZDUSD has broken a key horizontal support at the .5860 level today and has tested the 127% extension of the recent range (end of August to present) at .5815. This is also previous resistance back from October 2022. A move below the .5816 would put the long term 78% retracement and 161% Fibonacci extension at .5732 as the next downside target. 

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The USDCNH is breaking out of a triangle today ahead of key Chinese data. On Wednesday morning in Asian trade, China will release retail sales, GDP< unemployment rate and Fixed Asset Investment. Ahead of this, the pair is already threatening a move to the key resistance at the 7.3800 level. A level that has capped the market in October 2022 and Sept 2023. A break...

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The USDCHF still is trying to complete a double top, so back at the neckline may be a good short from here back below the .9000 level in the days ahead

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A lot of times traders like to "assume" something is going to happen without having enough evidence. Them "front run" their own trade idea thinking they are confident they will be right. This is a good example of a pair that needs just a little more ev9idence that a turn is upon us. If you watched the Week Ahead video, at the 17:15 mark, I discussed the risk of...

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Even though stocks are higher because of this, don’t get too excited that US 30yr yields look like they have found resistance near term. From the looks of it, we have, at least until Friday when the Non Farm Payroll data is due for release. In the near term, the 5% level capped the rally with the 161% extension just above at 5.05%. The daily RSI was overbought and...

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The USDCHF is at risk of a false breakout. The move above the .9150 is quickly reversing today as the sentiment was about as bearish we have seen in recent years (Daily Sentiment Index was at 5 on Wednesday). Price has moved far enough higher to squeeze shorts out of the market and entice new long trades. A close back below .9150 should target the 200dma or...

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Intraday Update: The Cable is within 50 pips or so of completing the head and shoulder pattern. it has been so well telegraphed in the markets that the risk is that we start finding buyers between current levels of 1.2130 and 1.2100 that we never reach the projected 1.2070 target, Daily RSI is very oversold, which is becoming a risk for bears. May not be the time...

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We have discussed the Russell 2000 head and shoulder pattern and long term double top on many venues, whether this weekend's Week Ahead" video, or on our daily FACE shows, it's a familiar chart. However, the daily RSI has just reached oversold. Oversold and become MORE oversold and the pattern targets are actually towards 2022 lows, but the 78% retracement of the...

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The German Bund has finally broken support in the bearish channel and targets the 127% extension of the March 2023 impulsive move higher. Following the ECB last week, and ahead of the FOMC this week, we have yields rallying in the USA with the 10yr note falling alongside the bunds as traders are nervous ahead of the decision. RSI in the Bunds are pointing lower...