I contend that the move from 2009 to the recent highs is a long termed Wave 1. We are currently in a Wave 2 correction. Wave twos, in Elliott Wave Theory are often Zig Zag formation. Thus it's more than possible that the market can retest the highs for the B wave in the correction phase, followed by Wave C that slams markets back to the lows. If this plays...
After the stunning drop in silver prices, wiping you any hope of a Bull run, a number of indicators have led me to turn bearish. Price ran up to the 50 Day EMA and struggled. Price retraced a bit more than 50% of its decline, failing to make it past the .618 retracement level, an action that would indicate more bullish price activity to come. Stochastics had...
Despite a low volatility day in silver (while gold broke into highs) premiums in SLV options expanded noticeably today. Always a thought that silver won't start soaring until gold makes new highs. Let's see what happens next.
Just 30 points away from a 50% retracement of the leg down. The Fed comes in this morning and throws everything that it possibly can at the problem. Buying ETFs now as well? Government nationalized business? Are we at socialism now? How do markets perform under socialized governments? Will be adding some SDS (2X down) at the 50% retracement mark.
Many are claiming, no test of the lows, a cure/vaccine is in sight. New highs imminent. Who knows, I've seen crazier in this market over the past few years. But in my world, I continue to approach stocks from the short side and target the 50% retracement first, next the .618 retracement. Both coincide with important trend lines that are moving down. ...
I expect that SPX price will move down to test the lows. Watch what happens when we reach the weekly closing price of three weeks ago. There is always a possibility that support will manifest at this level. Momentum, illustrated in the BBW indicator, suggests that prices will move lower. I have been waiting for a 50% retracement of the move that began in...
What can we expect going forward? Take a look at my recent blog post assetdesigncenter.blogspot.com where I look at the Depression versus today.
This is on a log scale, monthly data. Interesting how price currently is holding in this channel. While I am not bullish as it's too early to declare any victory over the pandemic. If we can stay above recent lows by the end of next week, it could be time for a bounce. My guess is that it would be a B wave with more downside ahead. More to come.
After a rise or fall in the market, I'm always looking for the three week test of a high or low to provide a launch pad to a trend change. As such, this week is expected to drift along with next weeks action being the true test of the closing lows. Since there is some tail (see circle area) the following week sometimes drifts into this area before moving to...
Noticing Silver strengthening against gold this morning. Looking for one more surge up, perhaps next week, if it does not take out the highs, perhaps we will see at the minimum, some reversion to the mean. I had been noticing gold stocks weakening over the past few trading days and have pared down, selling RGLD, MAG and a few others. Keeping WPM. ...
End of month, quarterly rebalancing and general retracements have resulted in the S&P rallying sharply over the past few days. The fundamental news remains bleak with much of the world economy shut down due to the pandemic. I am moving to cash and by the end of the day will be liquidated holding only a few oil stocks and a scattering of dividend plays that I...
Thinking bonds might be topping here or in the next day or two. Good risk reward here, especially with cheap options. Unless you object to buying a leveraged instrument on a leveraged instrument. Big time nice if right!
Looking at the weekly line chart, Silver broke below previous lows but had rallied above. This morning's regular smack down is currently holding at or above recent low points. We could be trying to establish a test of the recent lows. Weekly stochastics are at oversold levels. On the monthly chart though, the cycle is still down and may take a few more weeks...
But where can we look for the true bargains? Latest weekly thoughts assetdesigncenter.blogspot.com
A normal bounce is a 50% retracement. That's coming around here. Selling off some of the $12 calls I had picked up at lower prices. Intend to continue focusing on adding to the physical side. The paper side is so disconnected from reality. It's tradeable on technical but my earlier concept of using it as a forward hedge doesn't work. Physical premiums have...
Also of note today was the hourly bar chart that found a four bar test of the low. I'll add it below. This fib extension looks promising but other technical make me hesitant to move in aggressively for a long term
Keep stacking. There is nowhere else to hide. My weekly thoughts assetdesigncenter.blogspot.com
A 50% retracement of the major move from 2009 seems to be the first point of entry for this move. Trying to tell people not to panic, a 50% correction is normal, possibly down to .618%. Many have not ever experienced a real correction. Welcome to the real world of stock market risk.