Killy_Mel

Killy_Mel

EURUSD has broken above 1st standard deviation from quarterly mean (66 days) amid expanding volatility (measured by 3.2 standard deviations from quarterly mean) Upside probability is apparent, and the closes target is 1 year mean (264 days) at 1.1685. Move is confirmed when price breaks above relevant highs (1.1485) Stop level is quarterly mean (at...

Killy_Mel

GBPUSD is breaking above upper 1st standard deviation from weekly (120-hour) mean amid expanding volatility (measured by 3.2 standard deviation from the mean) Probability of further upmove is apparent. Traders can pick longs close to the upper 1st standard deviations (1.5690) and stops at weekly mean (1.5645)

Killy_Mel

On technical basis, SPY (The S&P500 ETF) has broken down below 1st standard deviation from quarterly mean (66 days), while also breaking below 1 year mean (264 days). The price has now entered a downtrend on quarterly basis, and will continue to fall if price stays below 1st standard deviation from quarterly mean (207.1) Closest target is the lower 1st st...

Killy_Mel

USDCAD is breaking out from 1st standard deviation from weekly (120-h) mean The mean has positive slope (as well as the 1st standard deviation) Volatility is not compressing (measured by 3.2 st deviation from weekly mean) USD can move up further on WTI OIL depreciation Traders can pick longs close to the 1st standard deviation (1.3120 and up) and stop at the...

Killy_Mel

Due to continuous demand for US Treasury securities over the last 30 years and due to global deflationary pressures, triggered by globalization (cost optimization of global businesses) - the yields of 10 and 30 year Notes continue to decline along their long term descending trend line The result of such a development - is the current cost of US debt is lower than...

Killy_Mel

BTCUSD is trading below 1st standard deviation from weekly (120-h) mean at 257.5 amid downward slope of the mean. Price has probability to fall further down, if it stays below the 1st standard deviation. Traders can pick shorts close to the level (257.5) and stop at the weekly mean (262.3). Breakdown below recent lows will confirm the trade (254.0)

Killy_Mel

Part-time employment is also declining within its well defined trend since 2012, however it has still some progress to make before reaching pre-crisis levels. In fact, it is the only systemic fallout left to be erased from the 2008-2009 crisis in the employment data.

Killy_Mel

USDRUB was trending upwards in correlation with WTI Oil descend since beginning of July Currently Oil fell to its 2015 lows (slightly below them now) while USDRUB was holding 65 level with apparent Central Bank of Russia support. CBR is selling USD against RUB in attempts to stabilize the national currency. If the Oil trend down stops at this level, USDRUB is...

Killy_Mel

Long term (27-WEEK AND OVER) unemployment is also well within the declining trend and it has almost reached pre- 2008/9 crisis level, confirming the positive data in unemployment and total payroll charts. Current levels are also highs of previous recession, thus everything below current levels can be considered normal, if the data holds descending trend.

Killy_Mel

Participation rate, on the other hand, has been declining since 2010 and now stands at levels lower than in 1980-ies. However it is not a systemic problem with the labor market. The reason for the decline is that the percent of population that is employed or actively looking for work is shrinking as a part of total population as a direct effect of aging baby-boomers.

Killy_Mel

Total NFP confirm the positive developments in unemployment rate. The data trends firmly upwards since 2011 and has surpassed the pre-crisis peak of 2008.

Killy_Mel

AUDUSD is trading at weekly (120-h) mean with no apparent slope. At the same time, volatility (measured by 3.2 standard deviations from the mean) is also flat and is likely to compress soon. Price is likely to trade in a lateral fashion for some time - within the 1st standard deviation from weekly mean. Traders can pick trades both sides within the lateral range...

Killy_Mel

GBPUSD is trading close to the 1st standard deviation from weekly (120-h) mean, but it has no slope. Volatility is not expanding (measured by 3.2 standard deviations from weekly mean) and is also flat. Thus there is not enough slope/expansion to show probability of trend - the Cable is likely to revert to the mean. Traders can pick shorts at or close to the...

Killy_Mel

Unemployment rate has declined below 6%, thus returning to levels usually associated with historical lows since 1970ies. 6% is an important number, as it is one of the targets of Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. 6% unemployment and 2% inflation are the numbers the FED is targeting to start unwinding monetary stimulus measures.

Killy_Mel

USDJPY is trading above upper 1st standard deviation from weekly (120-h) mean amid expanding volatility (measured by 3.2 standard deviations from weekly mean), which indicates a clear uptrend probability. Traders can pick longs at pullbacks to upper 1st st deviation currently at 125.00 with stops at the weekly mean (124.70)

Killy_Mel

In line with Total Capacity Utilization index, Manufacturing Capacity Utilization index which measures the share of manufacturing capacities of US companies employed in actual production, has also nearly restored its crisis losses. However, the index has bounced down from the 78% mark in the recent readings, falling out of its ascending range. It is too early...

Killy_Mel

In line with Industrial Production Index, us Manufacturing has been trending within its relevant ascending range since 2011 and has restored all the losses of the 2008-2009 financial crisis back in the beginning of 2014. Thus overall the Industrial production in the US is developing at a good pace, in line with the lateral uptrend in S&P 500.

Killy_Mel

AUDUSD is trading at the relevant highs above (but close to) upper 1st standard deviation from weekly (120-hour mean) -- which is a border of potential uptrend. However volatility is still compressing (measured by 3.2 standard deviations from weekly mean), thus risk of mean revertion downward is still there. Traders can pick longs close to the relevant highs...