Killy_Mel

Killy_Mel

Despite all the hype raised about fed printing 3.5 trillion USD during times of economic stimulus, the real amout of help to economy is much smaller - it is approximately 1 trillion USD The rest of "printed" money is held at the Fed or traded on federal funds market by the recipients of the stimulus (key US financial institutions, who received reserve balances...

Killy_Mel

The 10-Year Treasury Note Yield is on the verge of breakdown due to the recent downtrend in oil and consequent lowered inflation expectations. Despite the anticipated FED rate hike, the Yield can actually go in opposite direction (the famous puzzle outlined by Greenspan, the former FED chairman) The breakdown in the Yield will be confirmed on quarterly basis, if...

Killy_Mel

EURUSD is tagging upper band of lateral channel with in which it was trading laterally, marked by the upper 1st standard deviation from weekly (120h) mean. Volatility, measured by 3.2 standard deviations from the mean does not show compression. Thus price can breakout into a leg of uptrend if it trades above the 1st st deviation (at 1.0971) Traders can pick...

Killy_Mel

Looking at the Export and Import data of the last several years we can assume that the US is currently changing its course from consumption oriented to export oriented economy. The change will not be overnight and may take up to several decades, but eventually we can see the US trade deficit gradually erased! On the export side, we can see that US has restored...

Killy_Mel

USDJPY is breaking below the 1st standard deviation from weekly (120-hour) mean after a leg of uptrending move. Price is likely to tag the mean before continuing further - to recharge volatilty. Traders can pick shorts close to the upper 1st standard deviation (124.70) aiming to the mean (124.30) Stops should be placed above relevant highs (125.10), tagging of...

Killy_Mel

USDSEK is breaking through the 1st standard deviation from weekly (120-h) mean after a leg of uptrend from above. Price is likely to revert to is weekly mean for volatility recharge before going further. Traders can pick shorts around the upper first st deviation (at 8.70) and with target at the mean (8.65). Stops should be placed above relevant highs (at 8.76)

Killy_Mel

GBPUSD broken below 1st standard deviation of weekly (120-h) mean amid expanding volatility, signaling probability of further downmove. Traders can pick shorts below or close to the 1st st deviation (at 1.5580) with stops at the weekly mean (1.5605) The trade will be confirmed if price falls below relevant lows at 1.5550. Traders should also be aware of...

Killy_Mel

USDRUB is tagging upper 1st st deviation from weekly (120-hour) mean after several legs of uptrend. The price has a probability of mean revertion downwards to recharge volatility before going further Traders can pick up shorts at the 1st standard deviation (62.64) with stops above the relevant peaks (64.55) and target at the weekly mean (60.65)

Killy_Mel

GBP has recently broke down inside the 1st st deviation from weekly (120-hour) mean. There is high chance of price tagging the mean now amid compressing volatility. Traders can catch up with it by shorting (preferably closer to the 1st st deviation @ 1.5635) in view of price falling to its weekly (120-hour) mean @ 1.5595 However traders willing to jump into...

Killy_Mel

US debt to foreign investors has doubled in volume since the start of 2009 (which was the height of the financial crisis). This indicates that despite the fact that the crisis occurred and was initiated in the US, the demand for their debt not only did not vanish - it actually spiked. In mu humble opinion, it is a very strong indicator of the actual strength of...

Killy_Mel

Natural gas is trading sideways within 1st standard deviation on quarterly basis (in relation to 66-day mean) since May 2015. This creates good trading opportunities for those who know how to deal with the lateral chop in the markets. Within compressing volatility (measure by 3.2 st deviations from the same mean), traders can pick longs and shorts toward the...

Killy_Mel

USDCHF has recently broke down inside the 1st st deviation from weekly (120-hour) mean, after a significant leg of upmove. There is high chance of price tagging the mean now, as it needs to trade laterally now after the uptrend completion. Traders can still catch up with it by shorting (preferably closer to the 1st st deviation @ 0.9680) in view of price...

Killy_Mel

Housing market was hit the hardest back in the 2008-2009 US recession, which triggered by the burst of the mortgage backed securities bubble. Since then, US economy has restored her losses in most regards, if one is to look at the economic data. Housing market, however, started to recover only in 2012 and is yet to reach its pre-bubble performance. In line with...

Killy_Mel

EURUSD has been trading laterally since mid-Arpil 2015, with price staying within the 1st standard deviation from its quarterly (66-day) moving average. Currently there is apparent risk of breakdown: the price fell to the lower 1st standard deviation from the quarterly from within amid expanding volatility, measured by 3.2 st deviations from the same mean. If...

Killy_Mel

USDJPY has broken out from the 1st st deviation from weekly (120-hour) mean amid expanding volatility (measured by 3.2 st deviations from the mean). Uptrend probability arises if the price holds tests at pullbacks. Purely on technical basis, if price pulls back to the 1st standard deviation (at 124), traders can look for long positions with stop at the weekly...

Killy_Mel

Total Capacity Utilization index, which measures the share of industrial capacities of US companies employed in actual production, has also nearly restored its crisis losses. However, the index has bounced down from the 80% mark in the recent readings, falling out of its ascending range. It is too early to conclude if it is the end of recovery in the index....

Killy_Mel

Since mid-July the 3-Month T-bill yield has been trending upwards on quarterly basis (broke out from the 1st standard deviation from 66-day mean amid expanding volatility) The yield is a choppy instrument, however current uptrend (if it holds) may actually signal Federal Reserve rate hike expectations by institutional market participants. 3-Month T-bill is...

Killy_Mel

Bitcoin has entered into an uptrend more than a month ago (June 16th 2015) and the trend held multiple tests since then, pulling back to the 1st standard deviation from quarterly (66-day) moving average. Trades willing to participate in current rally should look for to pick up long positions at pullbacks to the 1st standard deviation, with stops at the quarterly...