MacroThinking

MacroThinking

At this date, the most likely scenario is that the market's trajectory has changed lower, but its trend is still positive. We wont likely have confirmation for some time, not until well into the fall probably, when the lower channel band of the new trajectory (bottom blue line) is tested around where it meets the long-term support line (lower red line). This would...

MacroThinking

It appears that EM continues to be in a difficult pattern, due to easy money policy in US ending and curency consequences.

MacroThinking

We will see if this market leading industry continues to build on its impressive gains after this near-term consolidation phase. The chart indicates that the consolidation has support.

MacroThinking

Commodities have been running better than just about any market recently, thanks largely to oil. Now, oil looks like its run into its medium term down-trend. Commodities are thus vulnerable to a pull back here. However, it will be important to watch both assets to see if either breaks trend. For now it seems that lower oil and commodity prices are on the horizon,...

MacroThinking

recent correction in bunds should be coming to an end soon, as price approaches medium-term trend.

MacroThinking

The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index appears to have broken its recent down-trend, and may be poised to move higher. As oil is a large component of this index, it suggests that oil is also likely to continue higher. If higher commodity prices are in our future, rising inflation could become a topic that impacts US stocks (positively), bonds (negatively), and...

MacroThinking

The recent price action of Greek equities suggests that the downtrend has ended and a new direction may be starting. How Greece resolves their debt issues is an important near-term issue for global stock and currency markets. A positive resolution would likely have a positive impact on both Greek equities and the Euro, and which would subsequently have a positive...

MacroThinking

Medium-term $SPX500 daily technical chart shows the market is testing recent support.

MacroThinking

Gold is consolidating at these prices, as the economy continues to slowly pick up steam and dis-inflation works its way through the system. Gold should be useful again, but not likely until some more times goes by and the economy makes more progress.

MacroThinking

This important indicator reflects many things including the steepness of the interest rate curve, and should fail to hold the current uptrend if the economy continues to improve as anticipated. However, longer-term price action still shows uncertainty about this scenario. Expect volatility in the near-term until further economic data confirms.

MacroThinking

The financial sector of the stock market remains positive, and reflects the pending rising interest rates that should help bolster profitability. I am watching for relative strength and continued price appreciation at this important stage of the economy and market.

MacroThinking

The S&P500 is at an important point in time. This excellent chart from @YaKa shows how the market is now at a meaningful long-term inflection point after a 7.5 year run. Normally this would be convincing, but this market cycle is different and thus the last run cannot be used for precise comparison. This market is not expensive enough at a point in the economic...

MacroThinking

The longer-term view of the US Dollar (UUP in this case) is positive due to global economics. The chart shows the recent pause at the current price as natural near-term resistance, and also shows pre-crisis strength before the financial world was upended. The next phase for the Dollar (above resistance) should reflect the relative value of America in the modern,...

MacroThinking

The long-term downtrend in Bitcoin appears to be finished, just as this new instrument enters a new growth phase. Stay tuned...

MacroThinking

New highs in leading sector ETFs like SKYY are a good indicator that the overall market will continue to move higher.