BTCUSD update: With the short term bearish trend line still intact, this market is poised to test lower prices. The next major support area is 3K and until the weakness is absorbed, it is within reason to go even lower. While we maintain our inventory, we continue to avoid any new trades. Momentum continues until evidence appears that proves otherwise. That is...
BTCUSD update: Since the dovish FOMC meeting, this market has gone from a low of 3446 to a high of 4415. Which serves as just another example of how sentiment drives price on the short term. Although a 12% move off the low is encouraging, this market has not demonstrated any real change in the momentum on the bigger picture. Yet. The bearish trend line that has...
BTCUSD update: Price breaks 4K which is in line with recently developed structure. Since the 4800 break, we have been staying away from this market as far as any new positions. We have rules and a plan which we are not going to deviate from in reaction to recent price movement. The 4800 area was a major support level that we had been writing about for months....
Bitcoin update: Since the sharp sell off a few days ago, price seems to have found some stability. The appearance of two long wicks and inside bars certainly add up to signs of short term strength. It is a good location to cover shorts, or carefully add to long term inventory. The broader structure is now in a much less favorable position for a more significant...
BTCUSD update: The hard money continues. We got stopped out of another swing trade long recently which comes with the territory. And we were making every effort to be selective with our entry criteria. Our strategy is not flawed, it is just not the best one for this type of environment. So what is the more effective way to trade the hard money? Before I answer...
Bitcoin update: The break out to 7K is now in progress. We issued a swing trade idea to go long which triggered around 75 points ago. Now it is a matter of waiting for our target (lower than 7K). As long as the newly established minor bullish trend line stays intact, it is within reason to see the low 7Ks relatively soon. Compared to other "experts" who were more...
Bitcoin update: This market has been stuck around the 6400 level for about 10 days. We can sit here and go back and forth about what this means about the near future and why (along with 10 charts from gurus seeking attention). Or we can learn a very important lesson about market timing. Many years ago when I was a NASDAQ day trader, the experienced traders used...
BTCUSD update: A breakout attempt to 6480 fizzles out. This is nothing unusual for a tight consolidation. There are major and minor support levels established through the 6300 to 6K price area. As long as these areas hold up, we will continue to anticipate strength and hold our long for the targets. Even though price is not following through on the break out, it...
BTCUSD update: Not much action since the massive short squeeze recently. There is very little to go by in terms of market structure and timing and why we have be on the side lines WAITING. Those who do not know any better continue to trade and only feed the herd, while we prepare for the high probability move. The Tether situation has created a layer of...
BTCUSD Update: Price action continues to trade WITHIN A RANGE. The recent sell off only amounted to a 5% correction which is really not that big of a deal. At this point, Bitcoin has to choose a direction by taking out a significant level. Unpopular as it may be, we focus on the waiting game, not on over reactive and costly forced trades. True selling does not...
BTCUSD update: After some unusual activity on Friday that almost lead to a break out, this market is still going no where. This is actually a good thing because the longer it lingers, the greater the short squeeze will be. With the well established higher low around the 6400 area, structure continues to point to strength. It is amazing to see the herd mentality...
BTCUSD update: Price action is going nowhere fast. A consolidation within a consolidation. A tough market for those who do not have the ability to wait. The question is: are there any clues as to which way it will break out? Just like trending markets do not continue forever, neither do ranging markets. Consolidations are an expression of balance in terms of...
ETHUSD update: Lower high formation relative to the 300 resistance level translates to weakness ahead. Even with the recent attempt toward a more bullish effort, the overall structure remains bearish. If Bitcoin continues to 6K, it will be interesting to see how this market behaves in relation. Like I recently wrote, we are all trading one big Bitcoin. The...
Bitcoin update: Recent price action has everyone excited, confused and most likely losing money. First the confusion set off from the recent outside bar, followed by partial continuation, but the lack of conviction still lingers. This is typical of a consolidating environment. Trying to catch the "big move" before the market provides evidence is a losing...
Ethereum update: A market that is weak sells off quickly. The bullish inside bar in this market is a sign of a fake out, and not a characteristic of weakness. On top of that, the current structure may be turning into a higher low formation. Bad for shorts. This is the first sign of improved structure since this market made an attempt in July. It is still too...
Bitcoin update: Price action is holding just under the 6626 resistance level. This minor consolidation can establish a shallow higher low, but in light of the general conditions, follow through is less likely. In my recent S.C., article I talk about the herd's need for action. There are people that are in this for the thrill of the emotional highs and lows, and...
Ethereum update: The retrace attempt may look impressive at first glance, but the broader structure provides a more sober perspective. A move from the 160 area to 224 is nothing to sneeze at, but how much did you have to lose in the process of betting on this random event? This is one of those situations where good is not good enough. Although the move to 224 has...
Bitcoin update: Price consolidation presents a tricky situation. It is sitting above an important psychological support which makes it more attractive to buy, but the structure itself qualifies as a bearish continuation pattern. This conflicting information is a perfect example of when avoid a market. At S.C., we do not take trades for the sake of taking trades....