It seems like a flat correction in EURAUD, needs to be confirmed, but "early bird..."
It should work immediately, or be quickly abandoned. The point is that risk is relatively low at this point, but if the analysis is correct, reward can be huge, as target is 1.64+
After some shuffling, this count emerged as a possibility, but the presumed wave (e) of B circled is not over yet. It seems to me that 1.47 and probably even 1.46 need to be broken before upside, but this is the one to watch, as there is plenty of room to the upside if the count is correct.
NZDUSD is boiling under the trend line, momentun diverging for some time. Note seven waves down, the move is possibly exhausted.
I would not call it a sure thing though, as there is no evidence whatsoever that the trend of higher degree is also up. It would also mean that the rally could be weak and short. But still, a pop up seems likely.
On the surface yields and stocks are moving together, but recent carnage in stocks barely produced a yawn in the bond world. In recent history yields would have been plunging together with stocks, but this time there is no true flight to safety whatsoever (same story as gold in a way - but bonds where much more popular safe heaven in recent years then gold).
IF (and it is still a big "if") gold has resumed its downtrend, this could be a possible interpretation of the move from the top it made few days ago. It is now showing very tight inverse relationship with SPX, so a relief rally would probably facilitate the decline.
Anyway, it WAS a good shorting opportunity at the time of my first post, and from a low risk...
I believe that the most important question - is the secular trend of falling interest rates over or not - is still without answer. In last 30 years, each time 5Y yield got overbought, i.e. RSI got to 80, the trend reversed relatively quickly: in 1994, 2000 and 2006. The first time falling interest rates signaled the start of one of the strongest equity bull...
Overlapping waves, high volatility and traces of momentum divergence, plus fairly oversold condition of the stock market - could be a nice opportunity to ride the relief rally. I wouldn't bet on new highs though.
They call it "Dr. Copper", saying that prices are predicting the economy. But lumber might be a far better predictor, see how weakening lumber prices preceded downturns. From that perspective, recent selloff might be ominous.
In the last 20 years the ratio was contained by 83 level, which it is retesting at this very moment.
I find interesting how it was inversely correlated with stocks up to 2011, and then suddenly changed its nature completely, and started riding the SPX advance.
It is decision time for GDX. If it breaks the red line, the bear will continue, so higher highs (and ASAP!) are required to support the weak bullish case. Note the MACD bearish crossover.
Overall, it seems to support the bearish case for gold.
... but the real question is: is it over or not. There is no notable momentum divergence, or any other indication pricewise. Sentiment is negative, but that is clearly not enough to declare the move complete.
There are different opinions and chart all over the web these days, but here is the clearest of impulses in German midcaps. Are there tipping market's hand, and are we poised for another bloody decline after a correction?