TheLazyBrother

TheLazyBrother Updated 

We have a clear impulse wave to the downside. Market is correcting now. Bad breath and exuberant sentiment reinforce the count.

TheLazyBrother

Touching, or breaking the upper boundary of the long term channel, led to protracted and painful bear markets. You have been warned!

TheLazyBrother

Prices were held within a channel for 10 years, after blowing off over its upper boundary. In fact the chart is fairly self explanatory. At record valuations, price to GDP, price to sales, CAPE, Crestmont P/E, price to replacement cost - pick your poison - reasonably, what can you expect???

TheLazyBrother

Interestingly, USD formes a new cycle bottom against the Swiss Franc every 16,5 years with great regularity. Next one is scheduled for April 2028. Within the cycle, up sequences are slightly shorter (6-7 years in every case), and visibly weaker then downside sequences, i.e. result in a new low.

TheLazyBrother

We can easily spot a five wave impulse wave from July 2015 - Oct. 2016, followed by prolonged sideways move, which can only be interpreted as a corrective structure. Volatility is diminishing, and momentum indicators are diverging from price action.

TheLazyBrother

Hang Seng topped in 2007, retested the high in 2018, and is now headed for the retest of previous lows. Two lost decades?

TheLazyBrother

After correcting the surge from COVID lows Silver corrected sideways for more then a year. Support at 21.00 held, brake of 30.00 level might be next, not the mention the possibility of the new all time highs. Precious metals were subdued during commodity surge, and rising inflation pressure, but historically tend to be late to that party, as in late 70's early 80's.

TheLazyBrother

After an impulse to the downside, 5year notes went sideways for several moths, corrected 50%, and presumably made an initial small impulsive wave lately to begin the second leg down. Will it be a third or a C wave is yet to be established. Should stay beneath the magenta MA though.

TheLazyBrother

Seasonality does not favor NQ this time of year, index stretched to the upside, 300-500 point opportunity on the downside

TheLazyBrother

Uptrend will continue

TheLazyBrother

EURUSD is congesting below 1.1400 level, and the falling neckline. 1.1450 will be the ultimate test of the bull case. Note rising momentum indicators that confirm price move for quite some time, and are at neutral 0.00 level, eventual rally from this point would push them clearly into positive territory. Interest rates are plunging and fueling EURUSD rise, as...

TheLazyBrother

EURUSD is trying to complete IHS pattern and reverse higher. An impulse followed by abc correction sequence could be counted since last Thursday, although my conviction is not 100%, to say the least. But, as can be seen from the chart with ZT (2y Treasury Note) overlayed, EURUSD is very much dancing to the interest rate tune, with latter leading the dance. If...

TheLazyBrother Updated 

Prices were rejected by purple SMA, which ended wave a, the index now being in wave b of (c), still developing. We need b to finish to be able to mesure possible lenght of c of (c), the final wave of the corrective sequence, and end of wave 2. For now, all we can say is that it could be anywhere from 2810-2820 area which comprises 0.618 retracement level and wave...

TheLazyBrother

EURUSD is likely to have completed an impulse 5 wave up, followed by a sideways correction that may or may not be over yet. Moving averages, blue and especially purple, as well as 0.382 retracement level are offering support around 1.1350 level. Of course, break of 1.1400, proven to be tough resistance, would be important for the bull case, and 1.1450 crucial and...

TheLazyBrother

EURUSD corrected its first wave up at 1.1350, and is ready to attack 1.1450 level

TheLazyBrother

If EURUSD does complete H&S pattern it would bring at least medium term reversal in trend. With FED chairmain's Christmass gift to the stock market and hint at lower rates then expected, shouldn't take to long.

TheLazyBrother Updated 

AUDUSD still hovers in no man's land, it seems. Breaking 0.7200 would open the floodgates, but break of 0.7250 on the upside would tilt the outlook to the bullish side. Since the general trend is down, and no up impulse developed, on whatever degree of trend, I would favor the short side.

TheLazyBrother

AUDUSD neckline is breaking, we should look for acceleration lower. Low risk trading opportunity.