Last time we looked at the Volatility Index (VIX) on February 06 (see chart below), we caught its exact price action up until the current high: It didn't affect the stock market though up until last week but the price is already approaching peak values. The long-term pattern has been a Channel Down since the September 28 2022 High and every Lower High since...
Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) hit today its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since the November 13 2023 bullish break-out. This puts the price in the middle of the long-term Channel Up pattern that started on the December 28 2022 bottom. As long as the price action closes the 1D candles above the 1D MA200, we expect an instant rebound. If it breaks...
It was reported this morning that Tesla (TSLA) "will lay off more than 10% of its global workforce, an internal memo seen by Reuters on Monday shows, as it grapples with falling sales and an intensifying price war for electric vehicles". The market has so far reacted with strong selling of more than -3% in early trading. But is this really bad news? Not so long...
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) made a sharp decline on Saturday and is now in the process of recovering. The 1W candle wick dived as low as the low of almost 30 days back (March 20), extending the 1-month consolidation since March 13 High. This is of course directly related to the fundamental aspect of BTC's Halving, which is due at the end of the week and historically exerts...
Tencent Holding LTD (TCTZF) has been trading within a long-term Channel Down since the January 30 2023 High. Such +1 year consistency is hard to overlook technically, especially since the price got rejected last week not just on the Channel Down top (Lower Highs trend-line), but also on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). It has to be said that despite the...
Ondo Finance (ONDOUSD) has been on a Channel Up pattern since its first trading days, supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Its last Higher Lows was priced on that exact level, so did the one before (March 19). The last Higher High was been -11% shorter than the previous, so assuming this is a progressive pattern, we expect a new Higher High at 1.5000 (+...
The GBPUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Down (dotted) since the March 08 2024 High, which can be considered a Lower High on a potentially emerging (dashed) Channel Down. At the same time, the downside on the long-term is limited by a Higher Lows trend-line that was initiated on the March 08 2023 Low. We will formulate our strategy accordingly. On the...
There is no doubt that Gold (XAUUSD) has entered a new Bull Cycle after last month's bullish break-out. Last week though it closed its 1W candle almost on a Doji which can potentially be a trend reversal, at least on the short-term. As you can see on this 1W chart, which displays the similarities between the previous Cycle and the current, such 1W candles have...
On this analysis we examine the Dow Jones index (DJI) from the longer term perspective of the 1M time-frame. A lot of market participants has started to get nervous because of this month's pull-back and this is the best way to keep a calm mindset and view the price action objectively. In order to see if the market has a legitimate reason to panic or not, the...
Back in November (Nov 21 2023) we made a case of why Kaspa (KASUSD) could be imitating Bitcoin's and Ethereum's trend and came up with a logarithmic curve for its growth: As you can see, in 5 months since then, it has respected this trend-line to perfection. Zooming in on the 1D time-frame, we can see that a shorter term Channel Up pattern is involved. Every...
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) has been trading within a long-term Channel Up (blue) and after it broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) more recently on November 01 2023, it went on a more aggressive (dotted) Channel Up. The 1D MA50 is the key to its price action as not only did it hold on the previous Higher Low (January 17 2024) but also two days ago, which is...
The USDJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the July 14 2023 Low on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Currently it is about to exhaust the 2nd Bullish Leg of this Channel as it approaches its top (Higher Highs trend-line). It begun with a Low on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and then a Higher Low on the 1D MA200. With the 1D RSI overbought...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is expanding the new Bullish Leg, and continues to follow the buy signal we gave on January 24 (see chart below): The key development today is the formation of the first Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame in 9 months (since July 10 2023). This is a huge technical buy signal on its own and becomes even more so since...
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hit the first out of our two bullish targets (January 24, see chart below), and despite a minor divergence, remains well within our pattern: That is the 2nd Bullish Leg of the long-term Channel Up pattern. We are past a 1D Golden Cross with the short-term pull-back finding support on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The last 1D...
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is approaching the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Cyclical Megaphone pattern and the current consolidation comes as a natural consequence of the Resistance pressure in close proximity. Technically, BTC has formed almost the exact same pattern during the previous 2 Cycles. The Megaphone starts when BTC breaks and re-tests the orange Mayer...
DAX has a rejection on April 01 exactly at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 18-month Channel Up (since October 03 2022). The 1D MACD made a Bearish Cross, being Lower High than the previous one on December 18 2023, which is exactly what happened on the January 27 2023 Bearish Cross. That sequence was the first Bullish Leg that topped to form the Channel's...
SPY broke below the (blue) Channel Up and the only Support standing now is the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This level has been holding since the November 03 2023 break-out. If it holds, a new pattern will emerge but the medium-term bullish trend will stay intact. If the 1D MA50 breaks though, we expect a bearish extension similar to August 15 2023, February 24...
JasmyCoin (JASMYUSD) is picking up the pace again after 6 weeks of consolidation. The long-term pattern that is emerging is a Cup (potentially we may see a Handle at the top) and this sideways trading the new accumulation before the next Bullish Leg. Technically it should continue filling up the Fibonacci levels as gaps, with the next being the 0.618 Fib (0.055)...