Trend lines drawn from 9/3 (23d), 9/24 bottom (9d), 9/30 (5d) and today 10/6 (1 day). The Nasdaq started off negative, then made good gains through the day, but sold off after news that Republicans will not pursue a stimulus package until after the election. That brought the index below the September support/resistance level, but still ended above the key 50d MA...
Trend lines drawn from 9/3 (22d), 9/24 bottom (8d), 9/29 (5d) and today 10/5 (1 day). The Nasdaq got a huge boost today by good news of President Trump's recovery from COVID. That put the index back above the September support/resistance area and well above the 50d MA. With that said, there is still a lot depending on the continued health of the President as...
It was a back and forth race for the SPDR ETFs this past week. In the end, Real Estate (XLRE) was the winner. Utilities (XLU) had a week of steady growth but could quite beat out Real Estate. Technology (XLK) did well earlier in the week but sold off at the end on bad news. Energy (XLE) had relatively big gains on Friday, but overall still a loser for the week.
Trend lines drawn from 9/3 (21d), 9/24 bottom (7d), 9/28 (5d) and today 10/2 (1 day). Nasdaq reversed down on 10/2 on uncertainty around the positive COVID result for the US President. September support became resistance again. However, the virus wasn't strong enough to break the 50d MA support. Volume was much higher than the previous day, and early morning...
Trend lines drawn from 9/3 (20d), 9/24 bottom (6d), 9/25 (5d) and today 10/1 (1 day). Another positive day for the Nasdaq as it continues to rally from a 9/24 bottom. Still waiting for a significant positive day (>1.25%) on higher volume to confirm the uptrend (QQQ volume shows up in my indicator, but Nasdaq volume was lower). Having passed the 11,300...
Trend lines drawn from 9/3 (19d), 9/24 (5d), and today 9/30 (1 day). The Nasdaq continued it's rally attempt from the 9/24 bottom. Volume is much higher compared to the previous days, representative of the swings in prices throughout the day. The September resistance area kept the index from going higher than 11,300. This will be a key level to watch as we...
Trend lines drawn from 9/3 (18d), 9/23 (5d), recent bottom 9/24 (4d) and today 9/29 (1 day). The Nasdaq continued it's rally attempt off the 9/24 potential bottom. The trend from the 9/3 top is leveling off and the market looks more like sideways, confirmed by the last two days of fairly tight trading ranges. However, this also could be a pause before a big move...
Trend lines drawn from 9/3 (17d), 9/22 (5d), recent bottom 9/24 (3d) and today 9/28 (1 day). The Nasdaq continued it's rally off of the recent bottom from last Thursday's open. Today it tested the 50d MA line 3 times, but rallied in the afternoon to close near the high. Daily volume is trending down and you could consider the daily candle a hanging man, both...
Trend lines drawn from 9/3 (16 days), 9/21 (5 days) and today 9/25 (1 day). The Nasdaq had a bullish run on Friday, with a steep climb marked with very few pullbacks. If that ascent were to continue, we'd have a 3.61% increase on Monday. More likely, would be a pause around the 50d MA where several top stocks are getting resistance. That would be a 1.00%...
Here are the sector winners and losers for this week. XLK (Technology) was up and down as it took the Nasdaq for quite a ride. XLF (Finance) was down from the beginning of the week due to news of suspicious transfers not being blocked by large international banks. XLE (Energy) continues to be a loser despite the increase in crude oil prices. Good to keep an...
This is a volume profile drawn across the span from bottom in March to peak on September 2nd. It shows why the current support area needs to be held. If we break through that support area, there will be another step down without volume to hold the price up. History is important to learn. Go back to previous corrections and use the Fixed Volume Profile tool to...
Trend lines drawn from 9/3 (15 days), 9/18 (5 days), yesterdays peak 9/23 (2 days) and today 9/24 (1 day). After a whipsaw up and down, the Nasdaq ended up slightly on Thursday on higher volume. The closing range is right around 50% for the day but the second half of the day was on the downward trend. Possibilities for Friday could be positive if the July...
GOOG is out there fighting for YOU on the front lines (aka. the 200d MA line)! If it loses the fight, we area all %$*@#!ed.
Regression Trend lines drawn from 9/3 (42 bars), 9/17 (5 bars) and today 9/23 (1 bar). A few possibilities here. A positive bounce of July support would take us back to the 50d MA. Unlikely that we would cross over that line without a pause. The 5d regression line points to a lower but still healthy increase of 1.19%. But the sharp downward action of Wed does...
Trend lines drawn from 9/3 (12 bars), 9/15 (5 bars) and today 9/20 (1 bar). Are you a bull or bear? Either way, this is an area to be careful . The three largest market cap (AAPL, MSFT and AMZN) are testing resistance, while the fourth (GOOG) is testing the 200d MA support. Trend indicates anywhere from a 3.42% increase to a 5.73% drop. The upward move could...
Futures on crude oil is increasing while XLE is flat or declining. The gap is widening. Bottom indicator is taking the 100 day % change of each and comparing. How much does XLE need to move to catch up? Is the tech bubble holding XLE down? How resilient would XLE be against the market further correcting?
The past week there was rotation into Energy (XLE). There is precedent for rotations into energy marking tops and continuing as safe havens during corrections. In the bottom chart, you see the rotation happening in September 2018, just before three months of market declines (21% on S%P 500 and 24% for Nasdaq). Looking back further to the 2000 tech bubble, look...
Updating these charts for this week as the market character continues to change. If the NASDAQ is going to return to the regression mid-point lines for 1yr, 2yr, 5yr and 35yr, there is still significant drawdown to happen in the next couple months. Over the past two weeks, the index has gone up and down, but has consistently followed bearish trend lines, even on...