flyinkiwi10

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Thanks for viewing. I expect a strong bounce here so I set my buy zone as shown. Stop loss not too close. While my bullish bounce dreams (up to $150 short-term) may not come true, what I expect to see at a minimum is a small bounce and I can always reassess and exit if unsure. Wish me luck. By the way, this isn't now I want to trade usually, Normally, I...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Hi, thanks for viewing. Just sharing my trade. Entered late on Friday because I saw wave (i) and (i) but was watching something else when wave (iii) started. Ended up entering on a wave ii retracement of wave i - as I was anticipating - based on wave i that wave (iii) was going to be extended (as it didn't reach 1:1 of wave (i). I was super lucky to catch it...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Thanks for viewing. I'm just sharing my justification for going long on ETH at $112 - $113 (30% of the value of my total trade). Either its a good call and I get to look smart, or you can see me get wrecked - so enjoy. The reasons I entered (EW, MACD, fib extensions / retracement): - despite not meeting a 1:1 extension the ABC seems to have all waves and...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Thanks for viewing. I'm not into fundamental analysis - so we could have complete crushing overproduction and oversupply of crude and I wouldn't know. I'm just looking for a potential bounce to go long. So I just posted to point out a potential EW count and strong bullish divergence displayed by the RSI. It could go a little lower but the spring is coiling and...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Thanks for viewing. For what it's worth, I am just pointing out the strong bearish divergence of the price action vs RSI peaks on the hourly (4 touches forming a strong resistance trend-line) and 4 hourly (2 touches). My wave degrees are a bit of a mess but my basic count is that we are finishing up a leading diagonal / sub-wave 2 of wave 2 in the...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Thanks for viewing. The price decline of 2015 to 2016 can be plausibly labelled either a WXY (double ABC) correction or as a single impulse wave down. There seem not to be any failures within what is quite likely an impulse wave down. So that leaves two main scenarios on the table: 1. That we have had the wave (4) correction and are working on wave 5 (we are...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

This is 100% technical analysis and 0% fundamental analyis. I would like to see for myself if TA can stand on its own. By my count there is some strong bearish divergence shown on the RSI. Three higher highs have translated to lower highs on the RSI, indicating slowing momentum. When that slowing momentum is also coincident with what seems to be (I only spent 5...

flyinkiwi10

Thanks for viewing. Whether or not you agree with my view, you have to admit that the USD is losing momentum. RSI has been diverging from the progressively higher highs, showing lower RSI highs. My target is 85 to 81 for a 12.5 to 16% decline over the coming months. Not trading directly and am not a fan of trading FOREX but it will impact commodities and fits...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Thanks for viewing. Interesting times indeed. Apologies about the clutter, I was unwilling to remove my overlaid graph of Shiller PE - which has dropped 11% since January signalling a market turning point. So I though I would post again with a more detailed wave count - please note I have placed a fibonacci retracement overlay for the current wave only. However,...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

This is a projection based on what happened last time there was a big drop. I am expecting 5 waves from wave A so we are still 3 - 4% above the bottom of wave A. Last time there was a 0.786 retracement of the drop and then wave C down extended between 0.618 and 0.786 of wave A. I don't know if it will behave the same, or quite differently. But this is what the...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Thanks for viewing. I thought I would post this after doing a shorter-term post that seems to show bullish signs . E has dropped 88% in 2018. People were waiting for ETH to uncouple from BTC 0.18% , and it did - not in the way most expected though - it significantly under-performed vs BTC 0.18% in 2018. Where BTC 0.18% made a descending triangle , ETH kept...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Thanks for viewing. Might this be the end of the bear market???? Time will tell. I thought I would post this before zooming to a longer time frame to show the multiple zig-zag correction since all time high. Since then it has dropped 88% in 2018. People were waiting for ETH to uncouple from BTC, and it did - not in the way most expected though - it significantly...

flyinkiwi10

Thanks for viewing. The 2003 to 2011 run-up of gold from ~$300 to ~$1850 retraced partially to a swing low in 2015 of around $1050 (wave (A)). After this, there has been some rather unconvincing bullish behaviour. I deleted my wave counts within the wave B triangle (to declutter) but they are 5,3,5 waves or "3s". Within the 5 sub-wave moves (in the 5, 3, 5...

flyinkiwi10

Thanks for viewing. This is what I expect, and I will trade USD/JPY if it develops along these lines. The red dashed lines are my initial and secondary entry points for the trade: 1. On a break below sub-wave 1 of wave 3, and 2. On a break below wave 1 extreme, Likely, I will try to ride the price drop to its conclusion - because wave (A) was so steep, it may be...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

This is drawn from Thomas Bulkowski's 'Trading Classic Chart Patterns' - in which he is himself drawing on Victor Sperandeo's 1991 book 'Trader Vic - Methods of a Wall Street Master.' Personally, I am not waiting for confirmation that we are out of the bear market but it will be worth recognising what phase of the market we are in. If we get a confirmation of a...

flyinkiwi10

Thanks for viewing. I put CL1! Crude in a wave (4) correction. I was quite happy with my prediction of the last drop from 75 to 64.50 (although I picked the start of the price decline accurately, I was expecting a drop a bit lower on that occasion) but then stopped following crude closely. It would be a little surprising if we were done after that first drop to...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

Hi all, thanks for viewing. I thought I would post again update my previous post prediction SC will reach support at 0.0000077. That target was slightly overshot but held and we saw a reassuring impulse wave up. That small impulse wave is about to correct now due to: - Long upside wick indicating rejection of the bears / profit taking. - Wave 3 isn't the...

flyinkiwi10 Updated 

I'm writing this while we are about half-way through wave (b) and wave (B) of a large corrective down-move. I expect wave (c) to be a strong one so $6600 is a reasonable target. Then, sorry to say, what is on the cards is a 20%+ move down for a 1:1 extension of wave (A) at least. If the recent bull-move from $5755 to $7410 was actually an wave B in a larger ABC...