fredpui

fredpui

After a misjudgement on Copper price and fcx a few weeks ago, i am reviewing fcx again. i think the price will move up from here and we have the monthly cycle of bottom made on July 19 and Aug 19. Let's hope this holds ... pls refer to my previous analysis on copper price.

fredpui

I am calling the bottom in copper price and price just bottomed on Aug 19 (which incidentally is also when spx made the bottom). The bottom on Aug 19 is also the support level in March 2021 around 3.9585. Aug 20 current price is sitting above MA200. which is a positive sign but we really need to get it above MA50 and the rest to go full on bull from here. ...

fredpui

VIX bottomed on Aug 13 and SPX was jittery on that day, it dropped more than 1% and reversed back up to make a top. Then it just fell on the next trading day Aug 16. I expect the vix to descend slowly in a zig zag fashion and when do i expect the next spike in VIX? You can probably see that VIX topped on the 19 of previous months and I'm not if this will...

fredpui

I am reporting this Spx chart as per my previous, i predicted that the market will top on Aug 13 and move down until Aug 19. Well, turned out that the market made the top on Aug 16 which is 1 trading day later. (Actually my key date was Aug 14 but because this is a saturday so i moved it one day earlier). When key date falls on a weekend, it's either one...

fredpui

IWM has been going south since late June and we are seeing a lower low. As at Aug 19, it is sitting below MA200, which is very different to DIA, SPX and QQQ. Lack of strength in IWM and I expect further downside. As you can see, the 1st range down took 24 cd and the retracement up to 33% took 18 cd (both numbers are divisible by 6). Target = 201.

fredpui

Gold struggled to get above the 1800 as i previously discussed and with USD going up, this is looking shaky for gold price. If you look at the other precious metals like silver and platinum, their prices are not going up like going up in the last few days like gold. Also, look at GDX and GDXJ,gold minders index, they aren't going up either. My next down target...

fredpui

Amazon is looking weak and despite the bullish reversal of SPX on Aug 19, Amazon dropped further. Aug 19 is a key reversal date for many stocks. Not recommended to go long on amazon anytime soon but one could place a short or a bear call spread at 3550 level, which could be safe. Amazon broke 3300 support level and this is bad sign. Further drops to come

fredpui

When VIX got to low 15, it spiked up to close to 20. This is expected as the 15 level tends to trigger a jump. I expect SPX to sideways for a bit or even dropped a bit but nothing drastic.

fredpui Updated 

As per my last analysis on the SPX plus the VIX call, timing seems right with the news from Afghanistan where Taliban has taken key strategic locations. Hope this stays valid .... live spx futures indicates down. But maybe just a small correction ~5%

fredpui Updated 

From Gann's time cycle analysis, i am forecasting a top around Aug 13 and bottom on Aug 19 (around the 4350 level) The bottom should touch on the MA100 and backup again.

fredpui

As highlighted in the last post, baba will likely go sideways for a while, and indeed it has been for the 2 weeks. The trend is uncertain at the moment but the sentiments in China isn't very healthy at the moment so i am anticipate more selling to come. $Tencent and $Baidu are all on the same boat. Let's keep an eye on this one.

fredpui Updated 

After my last analysis on gold, it has retraced back up to the 50% level around 1750, which incidentally is the bottom held in June 2021. I am predicting gold will starting its drop on Aug 13 or Aug 16 towards the 1600 level |(resistance level back in Feb 2020). I think this drop will be quite swift as the last one.

fredpui

I can see many people are still defending on the gold drop recently and hopeful that it will go towards ATH again. Think again, what's the value of gold based on ? Sentiments !!! and also they think it hedges against inflation. Well, inflation is truly here but it's not a problem. Central banks are printing money to provide liquidity and this aint going to be...

fredpui

Keep it short and simple here, I'm looking at further drop for the EURO. TLT = UPTREND GOLD = DOWNREND INTEREST RATE = STAY LOW USDX = UPTREND

fredpui

TLT has just touched on the ma50 line @145.71 which is also the top on June 18. With gold out of favour and USD going up, the smart money is pouring into the treasury bond. this is a good time to collect some bond for the next 1-2 years. Interest rate should stay low for the mean time and equities should be hot for the coming year.

fredpui

As per my previous analysis, Gold declined as predicted, and it hit the target price zone i marked. so where to from here? gold bounced up from 1677.9 to 1715 as time of writing. Will Gold rally up from here? UNLIKELY !!! Gold will be trading sideways and i expect between the range 1665 and 1834. If it breaks 1665 then gold could go much lower. The...

fredpui

Amazon made a lower high in July and gapped down after earnings on July 29. Bad sign !!! Refering to the Dow Jones Transportation (DJT) index declining for the past few months, this is a weak sign of the general economy. Transportation is very sensitive to the economy and as everyone knows, you need transports to shops finished products from one place to...

fredpui

VIX has been dropping and lately when vix hits between 15-17, it triggers a drop (2-3%) in the SPX index. I'm expecting a reaction in the next 2 weeks. Let's wait and see.