There are amazing Fibonacci time relationships within the SPX bull market from 2/11/16 Wave 1 = 47 TD Wave 2 = 47 TD This meets the Elliott wave guideline for wave equality. Minor wave 3 is 2.618 times the combined times of waves 1 and 2 or the inverse of .382 AMAZING! Time forecast wave 2 of 47 TD x .382 = 18 TD + 3/1/17 = 3/27/17 Mark
US 30 Year Treasury yields as measured by TYX could have an important break through on 3/10/17 which is when the US Jobs payroll report comes out. In December TYX hit a high of 3.20 In June 2015 TYX hit a high of 3.26 This very important double top could be breached on 3/10/17. Daily RSI and MACD are no where near overbought indicating a lot of roam for yield to...
My 3/8/17 post noted the intraday SPX may have completed an Ending Diagonal Triangle as of the 3/8/17 low. Today 3/9/17 after a small rally the SPX broke below the low of the supposed EDT eliminating the wave count. The intraday wave count is very choppy and implies the decline from 2401 is just a correction within the larger bull market from February...
Looks like first part of a correction could be complete with wave "C" taking form of an Elliott Wave Ending Diagonal Triangle. Good chance target could be hit today in anticipation of jobs report on 3/10/17. Mark
The decline from the SPX peak at 2401 has been choppy and looks like a Double Zigzag. If so it may complete today 3/7/17 in the area of 2357-2362. If the SPX does bottom in this zone it could be the starting point for a move to new all-time highs. Daily RSI and Stochastics are not yet oversold, so there is also a fair chance the next rally could fail to make a...
Fibonacci resistance at SPX 2400 has held, the decline on 3/2/17 appears to be the start of Minor wave 4 down. A move above 2401.00 will invalidate the wave count. A move below 2359.00 will open the door for a move down to the wave 4 target zone which is about a 5% decline. This calculation is based on the size of Minor wave 2 in the SPX August - November...
Today the SPX blasted up to round number resistance at 2400. In the revised wave count Minuette wave (I) = 44 points added to the Minuette wave (IV) bottom of 2359.00 equals 2403.00 the high on 3/1/17 was 2401. Minor wave "3" could be complete at 3/1/17 high of 2401. If not, there could be one more small rally early on 3/2/17 to complete the pattern. The...
The SPX appears it will open somewhere in the 2380 area. Very good chance SPX could make a minor high today some where in the 2380 area. . If so probable 3-5% decline in the next 3 to 4 weeks. I will have a greater detailed post about this later in the day. Mark
This is the follow up to my post on the SPX Developing Impulse Wave from 2/11/16. The sub waves of the supposed Minute wave "IV" Running Triangle are as follows. (a) = 43.90 (b) = 67.40 (c) = 33.80 (d) = 21.90 (e) = 17.40 The Fibonacci relationships between the waves are as follows. 67.40(b)/43.90(a) = 1.53 33.80(c)/67.40(b) = .50 17.40(e)/33.80(c) =...
The SPX could make a Minor degree top on 2/27/17 in the area of SPX 2370 to 2378. The wave count from the supposed Minute wave "II" has been hard to determine because it appears Minute wave "IV" is a Running Triangle. This is a Horizontal Triangle in which wave "b" exceeds the termination point of wave "a". Please see page 50 of the "Elliott Wave...
****Please see my DJTA post six days ago**** The DJTA could be the most important stock index to watch. It's Elliott wave structure is very clear and it's development appears to be more advanced than the SPX and DJIA. Meaning it could be a very good early indicator for movements in both the SPX and DJIA. Minor wave "4" down appears to have begun. Daily...
The SPX from the bottom made at SPX 1010.90 in June 2010 appears to be forming a Primary degree impulse wave. Intermediate wave (5) of the structure appears to be under construction. The most common relationship between waves "one" and "five" of an impulse wave is equality. The actual percentage gain of Intermediate wave (1) is 35.58%. A 35.58% percent gain...
The Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) has a clearer and perhaps more advanced Elliott wave structure than the SPX. More advanced means the DJTA is further along in the development of an impulse wave. The DJTA can now count as having completed Minor wave "3" while the SPX still looks like it needs more sub divisions to complete its Minor wave "3" of a...
The SPX has broken above a multi -month trend line and Fibonacci resistance. Daily RSI is at the highest point since the rally began on 2/11/16. In stock market rallies the RSI almost always needs a bearish divergence before a significant peak is recorded. Seasonality for US stocks is bullish until April. SPX could reach at least the low to mid 2400 area. Mark
This is a follow up to my post two weeks ago, "Other Possible SPX Elliott Wave Counts" Wave "3" of an Elliott Wave Ending Diagonal Triangle counts as complete at the high made on 2/10/17. In addition to hitting the rising trend line from the August peak there is significant Fibonacci relationships. Wave "1" from 2/11/16 to 8/15/16 was 187 calendar days. Wave "3"...
The RSI momentum indicator when used to measure stock and stock indices almost always needs a bearish divergence before a significate top can be achieved. The FTSE 100 (UKX) since the February 2016 bottom is a good example. Note the April and August RSI tops that were followed by only moderate declines that ultimately lead to higher prices. The decline from the...
At the close of 1/31/17 the 15 minute SPX appeared to be in wave (c) up of an Elliott Wave Expanding Flat. It the count is correct wave "iii" is still forming with a subsequent "iv" down perhaps forming a few hours before the FOMC announcement. Followed by "v" up into FOMC. A .618 retrace of the decline from 2301.00 = 2288.00 Wave (c) will be 1.618 x wave (a) =...
There are two other possible SPX wave counts in addition to the two counts I posted three days ago. A bearish count has a double Zigzag up from 2/11/16 nearing completion. In this count the first Zigzag up would be the February to June rally. The June 27 Brexit bottom is "X" wave. The second wave "A" up is June - August Rally. Second "B" down is November 4th...