There are two other possible SPX wave counts in addition to the two counts I posted three days ago. A bearish count has a double Zigzag up from 2/11/16 nearing completion. In this count the first Zigzag up would be the February to June rally. The June 27 Brexit bottom is "X" wave. The second wave "A" up is June - August Rally. Second "B" down is November 4th...
Today the SPX broke above a very important resistance point at 2285.92 this is where the supposed wave "3" was equal to wave "1" of the rally from 02/11/16. Illustrated is the new wave count and alternate count. Short term the rally from 11/3/16 can count as a developing five up. If this completes it could be either wave (I) up of the next five wave impulse or...
Today 1/24/17 The SPX rallied and failed to reach 2285.92. I have stated in several posts this is very important resistance. Above SPX 2285.92 the supposed wave "5" up would be longer than the wave "3" up of an Ending Diagonal Triangle from 2/11/16. In Elliott wave rules the 3rd wave of a 5 wave pattern can never be the shortest wave. Daily Stochastic, RSI,...
This is an update to my NDX post on 1/13/17. The situation has gotten even more bearish. On 1/13/17 there was a very tiny single RSI bearish divergence. Now it is a double and larger divergence. On 1/13/17 the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) was the only one of the three main US stock indices to make a new all- time high. IXIC made this new high with NDX. On 1/20/17...
This is an update to the XLP post of four days ago 1/17/17. XLP has reached the lower area of the resistance target zone. Wave "C" has moved above the termination point of wave "A" and has a clear five wave sub division. There is a high probability this ETF will begin a new decline on 1/23/17. This ETF is lagging the broader stock market by a wide margin. If XLP...
Two days ago 1/19/17 I posted a 240 minute chart of GBPJPY which illustrated a clean Elliott five waves up from the bottom at 136.472. Subsequently, the five waves up has completed and the decline after the peak so far has been very shallow. Daily MACD has just recorded a bullish cross over, RSI and Stochastic are only in neutral. The combination of wave...
There is an Elliott wave pattern that could complete in the 2274 - 2278 area. SPX may reach this area and top just as Trump is being sworn in at 12:00 Noon ET. If 2278.70 is exceed the SPX could make a run at a new all-time high. Use SPX 2285.92 as the stop loss area. I will do an update on the SPX after the close on 1/20/17. Mark
Today 1/19/17 the DAX completed an Elliott wave Expanding Flat wave (II) up. Please see " Elliott Wave Principle" pages 46-47. Wave "a" of this structure was itself an Expanding Flat. Wave "c" was an Ending Diagonal Triangle. Please see EWP pages 36-39. The DAX activity today is just part of the global stock market topping. FTSE 100 (UKX) today made another...
GBPJPY has a very clear Elliott wave pattern. A clean three wave "A-B-C" down has been followed by a clean five waves up. Watch for pullbacks to go long. Minimum upside target is 148.00 Mark
One of the very many factors that indicate the broader US stock market could be at a significant top is the SPX sector ETF - XLP. This ETF is Consumer Staples one of the nine SPX main sectors. XLP represents the bluest of blue chip stocks and usually the very last stocks to make a top in a bull market. This sector has been lagging the broader market for months,...
The RUT has the clearest intra day Elliott Wave pattern. From the 12/9/16 high it appears a series of one's and two's to the downside appears to be under construction. This pattern is very bearish, if there is one more rally that holds below RUT 1376.14 the next decline could be very powerful. Both of the waves two's up, labeled "(II)" and "II" are both...
There are four dimensions in analyzing any market; Price, Time, Momentum, and Sentiment. There are always at least two interpretations to any wave count, bullish or bearish. To discover the correct wave count you must move beyond the price dimension and focus on evidence from the other three dimensions. The SPX chart illustrated is from 2014 - 2015. I've shown...
This is a update to the long term FTSE 100 (UKX) Elliott wave count I posted 16 days ago. In that post I speculated that the FTSE could be forming a giant Elliott wave Ending Diagonal Triangle(EDT) from the bottom made in 2003. I noted the supposed Cycle wave V up from the February 2016 bottom counted better as a five wave structure on the monthly chart and that...
Today 1/13/17 the NDX may have completed an Elliott Wave - Ending Diagonal Triangle from the 11/4/16 bottom. See "Elliott Wave Principle" pages 36-39. If complete there could be a very sharp decline back to the point of origin at the 11/4/16 bottom. Based upon the two months and one week rally from 11/4/16, a decline could be complete in two to three...
Today 1/13/17 the Nasdaq Composite again made a all-time high unconfirmed by the SPX and DJIA. This is a sign of weakness because less stocks are participating in the rally. The SPX may have completed a Elliott Wave Running Flat. See "Elliott Wave Principle" pages 46-47. This is a very bearish pattern and fits well with less and less stocks failing to rally. ...
Before the SPX open 1/12/17 both S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are down. The SPX pattern since its top at 2282.10 is very bearish. High probability SPX reaches 2245 today, it could go lower. Mark
Watch IXIC - Nasdaq Composite in the first hour of trading 1/12/17. The IXIC at the close 1/11/17 was close to its all-time high of 5564.30. If IXIC exceed 5564.30 with SPX failing to reach its all-time high 2282.10 and the DJIA fails to reach its all time high of 19,999.60 this would be a bearish divergence and possible sell signal Also watch the SPX decline...
Today 1/10/17 the divergence between the SPX and NDX continued as the NDX and main Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) made new highs that were unconfirmed by SPX and DJIA. This is a sign of thinning market breath. The situation is actually much more bearish if you drill down and examine new 52- week highs. Nasdaq Composite new highs on 12/8/16 were 562 ...