markrivest

markrivest

In bull markets the surprises come to the upside. The reverse for bear markets. On 12/28/16 there were several short term factors that suggested a rally, the SPX opened up and the rally died in one minute. The subsequent decline has brought the SPX down to support in the 2248 area. The decline from the high at 2273.80 looks like a nearly complete impulse...

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Short term seasonal patterns are bullish in the last week of the year. Also the DJIA is near 20,000 giving additional bullish incentive. Today 12/28/16 was very significant, in spite of the bullish factor the DJIA had a relatively large down day and triggered bearish cross overs in the daily Stochastic and MACD. Additionally the RSI which registered a bearish...

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The intra day price data from SPX 12/27/16 trading is not showing so I have to use a daily chart. The decline from the high on 12/27/16 looks like a clean "a-b-c" correction. S&P 500 futures are up pre open so there is a high probability of a SPX rally in the first hour. Intraday rising trend line crosses near SPX 2274. Target/resistance zone 2274-2276. If...

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Relative to the SPX - LQ is lagging badly. LQ hits its peak of 24.94 in May 2015 just after the SPX 2015 high. Subsequently LQ dropped 62%. LQ has bounced back but while the SPX has moved to new all-time highs, LQ is still well below its high. The rally off the 9.42 bottom is a clean "A-B-C" correction. The supposed wave "C" is just above the point where "C =...

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Pre open S&P futures are up and indicate the SPX could open above a short term declining trend line. If the SPX can move above 2266.30 which is .618 of the most recent short term decline it will open the door for the SPX to rally up to the last near term high in the 2272 area. Short term seasonal patterns are bullish the week between Christmas and New Year. Also...

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This is a detailed count to my long term SPX Elliott wave count I posted about a week ago. The entire structure from October 2011 to November 2012 is a Leading Diagonal Triangle. Minute wave "II" - boxed, is a combination wave. See "Elliott Wave Principle" pages 52 and 53. It is a little frustrating when this combination happens because the "X" wave exceeds the...

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Sometimes you can't see the forest for the trees. If you examine the momentum indicators on a daily chart of USDJPY it could appear to be a candidate for short positions. After a monthly month rally it is not surprising to find momentum overbought and or with bearish divergences. An examination of the monthly momentum indicators tell a different story. Both...

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The SPX could complete a rising Zigzag from the bottom made on 12/22/16. There are two economic reports out at 10:00 AM -ET. Perhaps the SPX could rally into these reports. Watch the 15 minute Stochastics for overbought condition and then bearish cross over. Todays minimum downside target 2256.00. Maximum 2248. Mark

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This is a follow up to my first post on Trading View four months ago. The Fibonacci sequence is as follows. (1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144, 233 to infinity...) Occasionally markets turn on Fibonacci sequence numbers. Today 12/21/16 Winter Solstice the DJIA came one point away from making a new all-time high. It is also a Fibonacci 89 trading days from the...

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On 12/20/16 the SPX hit the shorting target zone about 15 minutes after the open. Because the DJIA did not reach 20,000 and was very close at the close on 12/20/16 there is a good chance it could hit that level today. If so the SPX could rally back up to the 12/20 high or a little above. I still think the SPX will hold below 2277.50, if it does exceed that...

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Today 12/20/16 based on pre open S&P futures - the SPX will probably open in the zone I had noted in may last SPX post. Today could be a very important top. Mark

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JJC appears to have just completed a Elliott wave series of "Ones" and "Twos" and is probably now in a powerful third wave down. MACD has decisively turned down and is still above the zero line. Near term high probability of lower prices. Minimum downside target is 22.00 bottom made last January. It may reach this target in about 6 or 7 weeks. Mark

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On Friday 12/16/16 the DAX moved marginally above the December 2015 high of 11430.90 which was needed to confirmed a probable Elliott Wave Expanding Flat correction. Near term its possible there could be a marginal move higher because there are still no bearish divergences on either the RSI or MACD. The DAX is moving up with many other international stock...

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Last week the Italian stock market (MIB) pushed above the .382 retracement of the bear move from July 2015 to June 2016 and has now reached the next resistance area of the double top in the low 19,000 area. The daily RSI has a bearish divergence in the overbought zone that is confirmed by a bearish divergence on the MACD histogram. There is a high probability...

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This is an update to the long term SPX wave count I posted three months ago. Within a standard Elliott five wave pattern there is usually a Fibonacci relationship between waves "one" and "five" in price and or time. There is no price Fibonacci relationship between SPX wave (1) and wave (5) There is an amazing time relationship in that as of 12/13/16 wave (5) is...

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When using Elliott wave analysis there's a bullish and bearish interpretation for any pattern. One factor to determine the correct count is the clarity of the pattern. Most of the time the clearest pattern is the correct count. Most of the time does not mean all of the time, as on occasion the less clear wave count turns out to be the correct count. On the...

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The DAX appears to be near completion of an Ending Diagonal wave "C" of an Expanding Flat. The 15 min chart shows an incomplete impulse wave up from the 12/2/16 bottom. DAX looks like it could reach the low 11400 area on 12/14/16. If the DAX tops in that area it could help to confirm a possible top in US stocks. Even if you don't trade the DAX, this is an index...

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Today 12/13/16 the SPX moved above the Fibonacci cluster at 2258, 2261 and 2267. The next Fibonacci coordinate is extremely important because if the SPX moves above this point it will be very bullish. The Fibonacci point is SPX 2285.92. Please see my SPX daily chart posted 12/12/16. Illustrated is a wave "2" at June 27th bottom and wave "3" top at August 15th....