markrivest

markrivest

Today 12/12/16 the SPX went a little above the two Fibonacci points at 2258.70 and 2261.80. The high was 2264.00 and is within a reasonable leeway for the two Fib points. Sometimes the stock market turns after FOMC announcements. FOMC announcement is 2:00 PM -ET 12/14/16. Also the DJIA looks like it could reach 20,000. If the SPX and DJIA rally into the FOMC...

markrivest

This weekend Italy's 3rd largest bank, Banca Monte Dei Paschi is expected to be bailed out. The Italian MIB has rallied to the .382 retracement level of the 2015 - 2016 bear market. The rally from the low of the year is very choppy with a lot of overlap - the signature of a counter trend correction. The 2015 - 2016 decline counts as a extended five wave Elliott...

markrivest

For the last few weeks the Stock bulls have been relentless, pushing beyond resistance levels. There have also been bearish momentum signals that have not been reliable. If a market moves beyond a support/resistance area it will gravitate to the next support/resistance area. As for momentum indicators, there are no indicators that work 100% of the time. The...

markrivest

The RUT has completed an Elliott five wave pattern up from the bottom made in February. Daily RSI and MACD have bearish divergences. Very important top could be in place as of 12/6/16 if not look for top on 12/7/16. Mark

markrivest

In my last post about JJC I failed to anticipate the final fifth wave up could be subdividing and forgot about a major Fibonacci resistance point at 31.35. Today 12/5/16 JJC exceeded the high made on 11/28/16 and hit the stop loss level. JJC then hit 31.34 just .01 below the major Fibonacci resistance. The momentum evidence is more bearish now than it was on...

markrivest

The move down from the DJIA high at 19225 has been choppy and shallow - it appears to be a Horizontal Triangle. If its complete we can expect a sharp thrust up on 12/5/16. If so the rally may not last very long or go very much above 19225. The SPX and Nasdaq would likely rally with the DJIA and probably fail to confirm the DJIA new high. Watch the DJIA, SPX...

markrivest

Two months ago both USO and Crude Oil appeared to be forming Horizontal Triangles from the February bottom. The pattern was subsequently validated. Now the possibility of a Horizontal Triangle has reappeared. If USO holds below 11.79 it will remain valid. A break over 11.79 will invalidate the pattern and opens the door to reach at least 12.45. MACD lines are...

markrivest

The market with the clearest Elliott wave pattern, momentum divergence and sentiment extreme is Copper! This is an update to my JJC post last week. Since then the Elliott wave pattern has completed and turned down in the forecasted Fibonacci resistance area. There are clear RSI and MACD bearish divergences. The Commitment of Traders report for Copper still has...

markrivest

My post on 11/30/16 noted that the Nasdaq had completed five waves down with bullish momentum divergences and to expect a rally on 12/1/16. On 12/1/16 the Nasdaq continued lower in an impulsive manner. Again it counts as a completed five wave pattern with bullish divergences. Assuming the pattern is complete a three wave counter trend rally should develop on...

markrivest

My last post noted a possible SPX top. The wave count I illustrated was invalidated in the first five minutes of trading on 11/30/16. The SPX went on to make a new marginal all-time high and subsequently declined in what looks very much like a Double Zigzag correction. This patter implies at least another marginal new high on 12/1/16. The Nasdaq topped on...

markrivest

Today 11/29/16 the Nasdaq Composite made a new 2016 high that was unconfirmed by the other two main US stock indices; DJIA and SPX. This combined with the VIX non confirmation, FTSE bearish pattern and evidence of a significant Copper peak indicate US stocks may have reached an important top. The SPX high on 11/29/16 may have been the termination point of a rare...

markrivest

My last FTSE post illustrated a possible Horizontal Triangle complete pointing to a continuation of the corrective rally. Today 11/29/16 the Horizontal Triangle was eliminated. It now appears that the corrective pattern is complete at 6880. and the next wave down has begun. If the wave count down from 6880 is correct the FTSE decline is about to accelerate. Mark

markrivest

The FTSE appears to be still forming a complex corrective pattern. It looks like a Horizontal Triangle wave "X" was completed on 11/28/16. If so we can expect another "A-B-C" rally up to at least the .618 resistance at 6887.40 If that doesn't hold many times after completion of a Horizontal Triangle, the subsequent move (in this case up) is equal to the widest...

markrivest

I'm focusing on the SPX intraday wave count because within the last two trading days the wave count has become much clearer. Note that from the bottom made on 11/23/16 a clear extended five wave pattern is near completion. About a three to five point decline followed by a rally to a new high will complete a larger five wave pattern from 11/14/16. The 15 minute...

markrivest

The SPX since the 8/15/16 top could be forming an Elliott wave Expanding Flat. In this corrective pattern the initial decline is in three waves followed by a three wave rally that exceeds the point of origin of the three wave decline. In this case its the SPX top at 2193.80 made on 8/15/16. In Expanding Flats the most likely Fibonacci relationship of the three...

markrivest

This is an update to the FTSE 15 minute charts I posted more than a week ago. If you want to learn Elliott wave theory observing FTSE - UKX since 11/10/16 is a great place to start. There is a very smooth and fast five wave decline followed by a very slow and choppy corrective pattern, in this case a Double Zigzag. So far the move up has retraced just below .618...

markrivest Updated 

The Copper ETF- JJC has a very clear Elliott wave pattern and appears to be near completion of a Double Zigzag that began in January 2016. Additional evidence that suggests a top. 1) RSI is in the overbought zone with a bearish divergence. 2) MACD Histogram has a bearish divergence. 3) The nearest Copper futures contract is below its peak made on 11/11/16 - not...

markrivest

On 11/25/16 the SPX made a new closing high. The VIX failed to go below the low it has made in the last three trading days. This is a signal the SPX is nearing a top. There's additional evidence of stocks topping which I'll detail in later posts. Mark