Today the main Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) made a new all-time high unconfirmed by the other two main US stock indices (SPX) and (DJIA) when this phenomenon occurs it frequently is the prelude to an intermediate peak. My last post earlier today was made just after what appeared to be the completion of an Elliott wave Ending Diagonal Triangle. Note * when the sell...
Alert: All stock bears the NDX has just completed an Ending Diagonal Triangle on the 1 minute chart. This is a sell signal for US stocks. Mark
This post ties in with my last SPX daily post illustrating an Elliott wave Ending Diagonal Triangle(EDT) from 2/11/16. Each wave of an EDT subdivides into a three wave pattern. Sometimes the sub waves within the three wave pattern can themselves by divided into a three wave pattern. This is referred to as a Double Zigzag. See "Elliott Wave Principle" pages...
Updating my SPX daily count. The SPX from the 2/11/16 bottom still counts best as an Elliott wave Ending Diagonal Triangle (EDT). *Please see "Elliott Wave Principle" pages 36-39. This count is valid if Minor wave "1" does not exceed the length of minor wave "3" which is at SPX 2285.92. If the wave count is correct, EDT's after completion usually quickly retrace...
Today 1/5/17 Nasdaq moved above Fibonacci resistance at the .786 area but still held below its all-time high so the supposed wave (II) up count is still valid. Note that the decline from the 1/5/17 high was in the form of five waves. The rally from the low of the day is ambiguous. Its not clear if three waves up is are complete. The Employment report due out on...
The SPX has the same message as my post last night about the Nasdaq. Very high probability to day is down. Decline today could be moderate, maybe 10 -12 SPX points. If the count is correct it sets up a very big down day on 1/6/17 - US Employment report. Very good risk/reward for SPX trades on today's 1/5/17 open . Place stops for shorts above SPX 22273.80 Mark
The Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) has an amazingly clear five waves down followed by a very clear "a-b-c" up to an EXACT .786 retrace. Waves "a" and "c" are near equal. This is a text book Elliott wave structure. 15 minute RSI and MACD are bearish. Very high probability IXIC will be down on 1/5/17. SPX and DJIA also have a high probability of being down. Mark
One of the many signs the broader stock market is about to have a significant decline is that former leading stocks are now lagging. In particular the "FANG" stocks - (FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL). All of these stocks have been lagging the Nasdaq for at least the last two months. FB recently had a MACD bearish crossover and the recent bounce had a double top. The...
The S&P futures in pre opening are trading in the area of my original SPX target zone illustrated in my post three days ago " Possible SPX rally on 1/3/17. If the SPX opens in this target zone it could be an excellent time to short. Near term down side could be as much as a 20 point SPX drop today. In one to two weeks the SPX could retrace to the bottom made on...
In bull markets typically the low of the day is made near the open. In bear markets typically the high of the day is made near the open. Seven of the last nine trading days the SPX high of the day was made within the first twenty minutes of trading. This is another of many clues that for stocks, the bear may be back. If there's a SPX rally on the open 1/3/17 it...
On 12/30/16 the FTSE 100 (UKX) was the only major stock index to reach a new all-time high. Additionally, UKX also hit a rising trend line all the way back to the major peak made in 2000. The non confirmation and trend line hit are solid pieces of evidence indicating UKX is on the verge of at least a multi - week decline. Another interesting aspect on the log...
On 12/30/16 the SPX bottomed at 2233.60 in the area of three Fibonacci coordinates. .236 retrace of the rally from 11/3/16 at 2083.80 to 2277.50 = 2231.80 .50 retrace of the rally from 12/1/16 at 2187.40 to 2277.50 = 2232.40 wave (II) to .b is a near perfect 1.382 ratio to wave (I) Additionally, both the 15 minute RSI and MACD have bullish divergences. The...
On 12/29/16 the SPX completed a five wave decline from the high at 2273.80 and bottomed at a short term Fibonacci level where the supposed wave "a" = "c". At SPX pre open 12/30/16 the DAX and FTSE are up as are S&P futures. High probability of a rally at least in the first hour. Upside daily target is the zone around .618 resistance. Mark
In bull markets the surprises come to the upside. The reverse for bear markets. On 12/28/16 there were several short term factors that suggested a rally, the SPX opened up and the rally died in one minute. The subsequent decline has brought the SPX down to support in the 2248 area. The decline from the high at 2273.80 looks like a nearly complete impulse...
Short term seasonal patterns are bullish in the last week of the year. Also the DJIA is near 20,000 giving additional bullish incentive. Today 12/28/16 was very significant, in spite of the bullish factor the DJIA had a relatively large down day and triggered bearish cross overs in the daily Stochastic and MACD. Additionally the RSI which registered a bearish...
The intra day price data from SPX 12/27/16 trading is not showing so I have to use a daily chart. The decline from the high on 12/27/16 looks like a clean "a-b-c" correction. S&P 500 futures are up pre open so there is a high probability of a SPX rally in the first hour. Intraday rising trend line crosses near SPX 2274. Target/resistance zone 2274-2276. If...
Relative to the SPX - LQ is lagging badly. LQ hits its peak of 24.94 in May 2015 just after the SPX 2015 high. Subsequently LQ dropped 62%. LQ has bounced back but while the SPX has moved to new all-time highs, LQ is still well below its high. The rally off the 9.42 bottom is a clean "A-B-C" correction. The supposed wave "C" is just above the point where "C =...
Pre open S&P futures are up and indicate the SPX could open above a short term declining trend line. If the SPX can move above 2266.30 which is .618 of the most recent short term decline it will open the door for the SPX to rally up to the last near term high in the 2272 area. Short term seasonal patterns are bullish the week between Christmas and New Year. Also...