mgiuliani

mgiuliani

On a technical level we have a first support at 1.1260, target that we expect by the end of the month. However it should be noted that this situation is the corresponding effective function of the world that does NOT have enough dollars, (to pay the debts denominated in the USA), as crazy as it may seem. A dollar shortage occurs when a country spends more US...

mgiuliani

Unilever on Thursday reported higher-than-expected third quarter underlying sales growth, as it hiked prices in response to cost inflation. The consumer goods and food maker said underlying sales rose 2.5% for the three months to September 30, beating the 2.2% of analysts' forecasts. Growth was boosted by good demand in the US, India, China and Turkey, while a...

mgiuliani

What will the ECB do after March 2022? Currently, ECB buys European bonds and government bonds through two programs: with Pepp (the pandemic program) it buys each month for 70 billion euros, while with App (the residue of the "old" quantitative easing) buys another 20 billion. In March, this being the case, only the 20 billion App program will remain alive: the...

mgiuliani

The “Buy the Dip” correlation has really changed: the intermarket scenario, in which this umpteenth rebound and recovery takes place, has perhaps reached its peak. Indeed, commodity prices have risen by 43% in the last 12 months. In the same period, yields rose by 90 bps on the ten-year US bond, despite a monetary policy that is still hyper-expansive. We believe...

mgiuliani

The pickup up in oil quotations this year is lifting profits nicely and we believe that this trend can continue throughout the next year. Strong demand in the chemicals division and a lower cost structure are also helping performance. The high dividend yield likely indicates concerns about oil demand and the push for electric vehicles over the very long term. That...

mgiuliani

The rise in commodities has not yet accelerated oil prices, and we know that if crude oil does not rise to at least $ 90, we will hardly be able to have "lasting" inflation. So the goal of the Central Banks, if they want to return to having an inflation capable of bringing down the huge stocks of debt, must bet everything on the price of crude oil. And from this...

mgiuliani

China is slowing down and by a lot, Evergrande doesn't help, the United States can't wait to do excursions and the Eurozone freezes in the land of the "poor". The increase in yields is not about the great economic growth we are paying for. US economy is clearly in a better position than the European one; GDP growth rate is higher. The Fed holds over 70% of all...

mgiuliani

We can bet that there will be a recession before 2024. The reverse repo agreements of the Fed surges to all-time highs in 2021, with those financial firms parking more than $ 1 trillion in funds at the Fed since August. Isn't that related to Evergrande's failure? The first signs began right towards May/June. Evergrande has not paid interest on maturing dollar...

mgiuliani

Fed officials say tapering ‘may soon be warranted’ and interest rates rise penciled in for 2022. Powell says announcement on tapering bond purchases could come in November. The formal announcement could come at the Fed’s Nov. 2-3 meeting, barring a major setback for the economy or another coronavirus outbreak, Powell indicated. In updated projections, the Fed also...

mgiuliani Updated 

This has to be considered as a trading idea. If Evergrande should fail, HSBC is one of the main holders of the securities, between January and July, HSBC added 40% more in Evergrande bond shares, but total portfolio exposure is down to 1.22%. Are we really sure that there will be no contagion on financial groups?

mgiuliani

The stock has had a strong graphical expansion, and is currently in a very well set up bullish channel. We have identified two entry points that could be interesting if a financial event or recession occurs. The P/E is on very tight levels and the dividend at current prices is not attractive. We await a correction for a possible entry.

mgiuliani

the company has very attractive corporate multiples with a P/E around 12, debt under control and a good dividend yield. The problem is that the market does not like it, but an investment at these prices, especially if it falls below $ 50, could prove to be very interesting in the medium or long term. 75% of microchips are manufactured in Asia, and that is THE...

mgiuliani

Interesting graphical retracement for the Amgen stock which sees a considerable decline from the highs of the year. Where does the caution stem from? First, management highlighted that new patient prescriptions remain below pre-COVID-19 levels, and second, variants are suggesting demand may be muted for now. The stock has a solid capital appreciation potential and...

mgiuliani

The Swiss-based drugmaker missed consensus expectations on both earnings and sales in the first quarter, the results were hurt by a historically weak cough and cold season. Novartis’ cornerstone innovative medicines division turned in with sales +4%. Stock is currently pegged to underperform the broader market and our 18-month projections reflect below-average...

mgiuliani

Market volatility, foreign currency effects, and rising operating costs may hinder some gains: consumer demand may pale in comparison to the pantry loading and increased consumption during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic over the March, 2020 quarter. The Company may consider acquisitions to expand the business, but we still belive it is an intersting target by...

mgiuliani

LVMH is a vastly diversified company with 75+ brands from fashion, jewelry, leather, cosmetics, perfumes, stores, alcohol, media and financial services. LVMH has a few of the most desirable luxury brands in the world in its portfolio. Inflation isn't a problem at all, but more a possible catalyst for the company: high-end luxury items are investments and...

mgiuliani

EBA stress test: Mediobanca is the best Italian institutions: in the adverse scenario of the EBA stress test, Mediobanca sees its Cet1 fully loaded ratio, the main indicator of a bank's capital strength, to go from 14.51% at the end of 2020 to 9.73% in 2023. Mediobanca comes out of the adverse scenario is the highest among the five Italian banks that took part in...

mgiuliani

MOVE index (orange line) is the US bond market fear index. Here it is compared with the VIX of the stock market, it measures the volatility on options traded on US Treasury Bonds, it represents a risk barometer to understand how to move the sentiment of operators on the US bond market. In particular, the MOVE index tracks the movement of implied volatility in 2-,...