The USD sell off as traders set a chain of profit taking after 2 weeks rally due to various factors: - Greece uncertainty of exiting the EZ make holding USD worthwhile - US Economic data has been promising with CPI much higher - Hawkish comment from Yellen - That view is changing with 5th of June looming for a potential deal and no Grexit A lower USD...
RSI Divergence on the 4 hour RSI oversold for days US dollar rolling over should support this
Expect some consolidation Forming a potential H & S? Will wait for confirmation Daily RSI has rooms to fall Data Dependant on ADP & Non Farm Payroll Previous yellow box was a bullish wedge Forecast next yellow box is a bearish wedge?
AB - CD could be in play Bear flag and wedge created Broke below the wedge Had a bearish engulfing day followed by another red candle today Rejection off the 50% Fib retracement from High of 160.68 to low of 151.44 50 DMA cross below 100 DMA = Death Cross? Support at 20 dma at 153.972 Support at January and May low (Double bottom there) at 151.44...
Bullish Engulfing - need to close the day on the high in order to have more gains - need follow up buying on the next candle Targets are: - 0.78095 which is 100 dma (also coincide with 38.2% Fib) - 0.78768 which is 50% Fib followed by 0.79442 Weekly Chart: - RSI bullish divergence continues - 20 WMA is a magnet 0.7774 - Fib from Sept 14 High to April 15 low...
Entry: Long Dollar on the break out from the flag and taking out previous high of 97.73 for confirmation. Stop: Use 97.00 psychological level or 96.98 which is 76.8% retracement of the flag high to low. Target: Using the Flag pole as an estimate to a target - we have 100.37 (which was previous target) Trade Invalidate if: - Fed members talk down the dollar -...
Risk Disclaimer -Technically it look right but fundamentally the ECB is backing the Bund. Will you fight it? Short at 156.02 (or start building from 1.55.90) Stop at 156.56 (risk is 54 pips) Target 1 at 154.07 (Gap with reward at 195 pips) Target 2 at 153.92 (Gap with reward at 210 pips)
A conservative approach and buy only on the breakout of the downward wedge. Entry at 1.53499 (stop at 1.52886) Risk is 61 pips Target 1 at 1.54118 (raised stop to B/E) Reward is 61 pips Target 2 at 1.54451 (this was previously support now resistance) Reward is 95 pips This play is on: - USD roll over - BOE no change in interest rate statement - 4 hour RSI...
Watch 1.10640 as a strong resistance zone and secondary resistance zone comes in at 1.10350 = Sell zone. Previous AB - CD playing out point perfection 4 hour: 200 ma sits at 1.10350 (Sell zone) 1 hour: Rising wedge on this corrective rally (waiting for breakout) Wedge tip pointing to 1.10350 Tested 1.10043 (minor structure) Corrective rally has 50% Fib...
Bull exhaustion and strong resistance at 790 levels. Look to add short on another attempt higher and RSI is acting as confirmation.
Building long between 1125 - 1135 levels with stops at 1117 to target 1160 - 1170 levels provide a decent RR.
Last few line of defence and buyers need to aim at these bargain prices to build long or else, we are seeing a pullback should price broke below 1168.
Need more confirmation but certainly one to watch in the future.
FOMC meeting minutes could be the main catalyst. A higher dollar could impede economic growth in the US and the Feds may continue to water it down - watch how other CBs are all trying their best to have their currency to stay competitive.
The rising dollar remains corrective. Today FOMC meeting minutes may remain dovish given most of the economic data has not been very supportive on the rate hike. Gold need to find solid support and build a case to run up higher - seasonality in play. Another lower high at 1250-1290 are viable as long as 1178 holds in the short term. After 1250-1290, the bears...
If a double bottom is in at 1120 area again then worth a long with a tight stop loss to target 1145 - 1150 levels.
Brown eclipse / Circles are resistance. Assumption that AB = CD (green lines)