Amazon Rally or Crash: Decision Point Approaching!

For Amazon, we're currently at a critical juncture with two potential scenarios:

Scenario 1 - Uptrend: This scenario suggests that Amazon has completed a five-wave cycle, finishing Wave I in September 2020, and concluded the corrective phase (Wave II) by December 2022. If this is the case, we're now in Wave III, indicated by a five-wave impulse upwards, comprising a higher Wave (1) followed by a corrective Wave (2). This scenario implies that after hitting a low at $81.43, the stock is in an uptrend. The maximum extension for this uptrend, or red Wave 5, leading to a higher Wave (1), is targeted at $181.

Scenario 2 - Ongoing Correction: Alternatively, it's posited that the overarching Wave II hasn't finished yet, and only a Wave (A) of the correction has been completed so far. Here, we anticipate the formation of Wave (B) shortly, to be followed by a Wave (C). The exact target of Wave (C) would depend on where Wave (B) concludes. For this scenario, the benchmarks for a potential Expanded Flat correction range between $177 (100% extension) and $214 (138% extension). Surpassing these values would negate the scenario of an incomplete Wave II, confirming that we are in Wave III.

The current chart patterns lean more towards the first scenario, indicating an uptrend and the end of Wave II at $81.43. The critical levels are thus set at $181 for confirming the uptrend, and between $177 to $214 for the alternate scenario. Breaking through these levels would clarify which phase Amazon is currently in.

Comment:

At Amazon, we're still uncertain about the future direction, as we're considering two scenarios. The issue is that we're precisely at the 100% level for a potential double top, if we haven't encountered Wave II yet but only a Wave (A) at $81.43, then we might see a double top around $177. The few dollars difference is still enough for a double top and would fit the scenario. Thus, we have these two similar scenarios, and we can't entirely dismiss either. However, upon closer examination of the structure, our primary scenario leans towards a five-wave structure. The presence of an upward trend channel now being exited as Wave 5 typically indicates a significant downward breakout, aligning with the Wave (1) and (2) scenario. We must remain vigilant and wait to see what unfolds, but the scenario involving Wave (1) and (2) appears more probable to us.