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** Timing the Top of the current Cycle **
First of all we need to have a benchmark to work on. I have decided to time the peak (completion) of BTC's current Market Cycle based on the following accurate measure: the time from the market Bottom to the Peak during the previous Cycles.
- As you see from the start until the first peak Bitcoin took roughly 330 days (or 47 bars on the 1W time-frame) to get there.
- The 2nd Cycle duration from the Bottom to Top was roughly 740 days (106 bars), more or less two times the first Cycle.
- The 3rd Cycle was 1065 days (152 bars) which is roughly the 2nd Cycle duration (740 days) + the 1st (330 days).
- Based on that (rough) progression, we can assume that the current Cycle will be the 3rd Cycle duration + the 1st: 1065 days + 330 days = 1395 (roughly 1400).
** Applying the Time Fibonacci levels. Where are we now? **
Next is to apply the Fibonacci Channel on the time-scale. In doing so I use the Full Cycle duration, i.e. from the previous Top until the new Top (as projected by the calculations above).
We clearly see that BTCUSD is right before the 0.382 Time Fib. During the previous 2 Cycles, when the price was about to enter this Fibonacci level, a pull back to the nearest Price Fib took place. In January 2016, the price was around the 0.5 Price Fib so it pulled back to the nearest 0.382. In August 2012 (which was a match shorter Cycle, keep that in mind) the price was around the 0.618 Price Fib so it pulled back to the nearest 0.5.
Right now the price is near the 0.5 Price Fib as it was during the previous Cycle. It makes a whole lot of sense (that since it is close to entering the 0.382 Time Fib) to pull back to the closest Price Fib = 0.382 which is roughly $6500.
All the above are of course based on that particular model and assuming that the pattern will be repeated. Do you think it will? Is $6500 the last low before we really take off to news Highs? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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