So after releasing the last chart where we contemplated the possibility that BTC might enter a mini bearmarket, and that the real top will come in 2023 (lengthening cycle theory), now let's see
how high bitcoin would go, if it would resume pumping already in the next days or at least this month.
We actually have a nice historical comparison, namely the 2011 rally. The monthly chart this cycle looks remarkably similar to the weekly chart in 2011.
Even the structure with the red candle before the rally started is somewhat similar.
And then after 5 straight weeklys, we had a sideways week in 2011. This is happening exactly with BTC, but it's already been longer.
If BTC would now continue a similar structure as in 2011, we would see the pump resume already very soon, the monthly candle in May must then be green and quite high. We would see the top
in August at around 140k, because if it already pumps soon, I can't see it breaking through the upper band strongly.
That is why I actually hope for a longer sideways consolidation now, but I just wanted to show that this scenario here could also happen.
We have no way of knowing what BTC will exactly do, all we can do is ponder some different possibilities, and have a strategy for each single one.
So, ok, what would I do if BTC pumps to 140k by august?
What would I do if BTC goes sideways or minibearmarket for 1 year and the real top in July 2023?
What would I do if BTC went sideways for a few more months and then the top at 300k in December?
If one is prepared for all scenarios, then everything will be fine, either way. One should never bet on one scenario though, that is unwise and what destroys many traders.
They want this one scenario, it must be like this, if not, then bad luck.
Anyways, we will hopefully soon find out which path BTC will take.
how high bitcoin would go, if it would resume pumping already in the next days or at least this month.
We actually have a nice historical comparison, namely the 2011 rally. The monthly chart this cycle looks remarkably similar to the weekly chart in 2011.
Even the structure with the red candle before the rally started is somewhat similar.
And then after 5 straight weeklys, we had a sideways week in 2011. This is happening exactly with BTC, but it's already been longer.
If BTC would now continue a similar structure as in 2011, we would see the pump resume already very soon, the monthly candle in May must then be green and quite high. We would see the top
in August at around 140k, because if it already pumps soon, I can't see it breaking through the upper band strongly.
That is why I actually hope for a longer sideways consolidation now, but I just wanted to show that this scenario here could also happen.
We have no way of knowing what BTC will exactly do, all we can do is ponder some different possibilities, and have a strategy for each single one.
So, ok, what would I do if BTC pumps to 140k by august?
What would I do if BTC goes sideways or minibearmarket for 1 year and the real top in July 2023?
What would I do if BTC went sideways for a few more months and then the top at 300k in December?
If one is prepared for all scenarios, then everything will be fine, either way. One should never bet on one scenario though, that is unwise and what destroys many traders.
They want this one scenario, it must be like this, if not, then bad luck.
Anyways, we will hopefully soon find out which path BTC will take.
My initial feeling was confirmed, see here: