Bitcoin Going to 3k While The World Plunges Into Recession?
Crypto is likely going to see a massive liquidation event occurring very soon. Margin calls start to cascade below 20k. Right now we know that Celcius, 3AC, MicroStrategy, and many miners that operate on thin margins are all at risk of major liquidations or margin calls. There's likely many others at risk and who will collapse due to contagion from these and other major players collapsing. This totals over 200k BTC at risk of liquidation, as well as many other cryptos.
There could also be contagion from global markets collapsing and falling into recession or even depression over the next year. The FED aggressively hiking rates while the stock market is in free fall is going to end badly as all the liquidity dries up and the theoretical rug is pulled out from under the entire world. The US could see deflation next year as supply chains recover and monetary conditions tighten aggressively.
The fallout from LUNA/UST collapsing is still spreading through the crypto market and we will likely see many other cryptocurrencies collapsing to virtually nothing over the next year. Celsius and 3AC collapsing due to LUNA will just be the beginning, This will keep spreading to more and more major market players. Only the strong will survive.
Shorting will likely be the modus operandi for an extended period of time for nearly all risk assets. Massive long-term bearish divergences will likely take several months if not over a year to fully play out.
It is likely that we see a move downward that is larger and faster than the largest down move BTC has ever experienced, which was in 2011 before even my time. This was a 93% drop and happened while the market was still recovering from one of the worst economic periods of recent history. I suspect this will happen again and using the April 2022 high as the end of wave-G would put our minimum target at 3000 USD per BTC before September. It's quite possible it goes even lower than that to the 2013 high of 1300.
There could also be contagion from global markets collapsing and falling into recession or even depression over the next year. The FED aggressively hiking rates while the stock market is in free fall is going to end badly as all the liquidity dries up and the theoretical rug is pulled out from under the entire world. The US could see deflation next year as supply chains recover and monetary conditions tighten aggressively.
The fallout from LUNA/UST collapsing is still spreading through the crypto market and we will likely see many other cryptocurrencies collapsing to virtually nothing over the next year. Celsius and 3AC collapsing due to LUNA will just be the beginning, This will keep spreading to more and more major market players. Only the strong will survive.
Shorting will likely be the modus operandi for an extended period of time for nearly all risk assets. Massive long-term bearish divergences will likely take several months if not over a year to fully play out.
It is likely that we see a move downward that is larger and faster than the largest down move BTC has ever experienced, which was in 2011 before even my time. This was a 93% drop and happened while the market was still recovering from one of the worst economic periods of recent history. I suspect this will happen again and using the April 2022 high as the end of wave-G would put our minimum target at 3000 USD per BTC before September. It's quite possible it goes even lower than that to the 2013 high of 1300.
