Weak bounce increases the likelihood for this bearish scenario
Well, this bounce from 3200 is the most pitiful excuse for a bounce I have seen in a long time.
This shows that the support at 3200, which should have lead to a very strong reaction, a rally to upper 5000s, is quite weak.
I think we'll go below the MA200 in the near future. Maybe the structure will be different from the 2011 fractal, in that BTC just doesn't really do large bounces and dumps any more,
just a slow and long decline towards 1200, the high of 2013.
This means that the bearmarket will also drag on longer than expected, and only in the second half of 2020 would we rise again thanks to:
1. The halving effect
2. The stock market bearmarket probably over and new bullrun in stock indices (BTC correlated with stocks)
So, let's see if BTC bounces soon, then this might still be averted, but the likelihood fot this increases more and more.
The positive of this?
An entry at 1200 would be an insane opprtunity, since the ATH for next rally, even though it would occur later, say 2023 plusminus, would yield nice gains.
Also keep this chart here in mind: www.blockchain....cluding-popular?timespan=a...
Historically, when transactions go above old ATH, only then the beartrend stops, and BTC turns bullish. Never before. And it looks as if it will take quite some time until we
reach old transaction ATH.
So, I will be prepared for that scenario.
This shows that the support at 3200, which should have lead to a very strong reaction, a rally to upper 5000s, is quite weak.
I think we'll go below the MA200 in the near future. Maybe the structure will be different from the 2011 fractal, in that BTC just doesn't really do large bounces and dumps any more,
just a slow and long decline towards 1200, the high of 2013.
This means that the bearmarket will also drag on longer than expected, and only in the second half of 2020 would we rise again thanks to:
1. The halving effect
2. The stock market bearmarket probably over and new bullrun in stock indices (BTC correlated with stocks)
So, let's see if BTC bounces soon, then this might still be averted, but the likelihood fot this increases more and more.
The positive of this?
An entry at 1200 would be an insane opprtunity, since the ATH for next rally, even though it would occur later, say 2023 plusminus, would yield nice gains.
Also keep this chart here in mind: www.blockchain....cluding-popular?timespan=a...
Historically, when transactions go above old ATH, only then the beartrend stops, and BTC turns bullish. Never before. And it looks as if it will take quite some time until we
reach old transaction ATH.
So, I will be prepared for that scenario.