A Comprehensive Guide to Bitcoin's Past & Current Cycle

BNC:BLX   BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin
Hello Traders. Here we dissect the past, current, and potential future growth of Bitcoin . I am uploading this chart because there seems to be an influx of charts predicting that Bitcoin is going straight to $100,000 by EOY, which is viable. This chart is showing a possible realistic case for Bitcoin , every phase of the way divided by each Bitcoin halving for an easier understanding of the cycles of Bitcoin . This also takes into consideration for support and resistance lines that is linear within the logarithmic chart.

We can explain it by two supporting pieces of evidence:

1) Bitcoin Halvings
2) Elliott Wave Theory

1) Bitcoin Halvings
The best way to interpret Bitcoin's price action is via the logarithmic chart which shows the overall square root function of each cycle. Simply put, realistically, the log chart is slowing down on the longer timescale, meaning that Bitcoin is now currently in its fourth phase as shown in the chart - price maturity and store of value. Price maturity is shown in most stock models, meaning that markets do not move in straight lines. This chart also helps support the 'lengthening market cycle' theory, which is based on how fast growth of a stock is shown. Bitcoin cannot just continue to grow exponentially. This would lead to incredibly inflated prices that brings Bitcoin into uncharted territories.

As stated above, the cause of these growth cycles are the Bitcoin halvings, which leads to a supply shock and a subsequent rally. As history has shown that with a lower supply, the demand for the coins go higher, meaning that the fundamental value of Bitcoin may go down, and now becomes more of a 'Store of Value' asset, just like gold . Although this chart is just an observation and educated guess, we can still assume that this chart is realistic and a probable scenario as it is calculated with a balance of market psychology, technicals, and overall market cycle theories.

Even the monthly chart can be seen as a minuscule timeframe and we have to take this day by day, timeframe by timeframe. We can most definitely see lower prices and from a longer perspective, anything below 100,000 USD is still considered a great buy for Bitcoin , as many will start to understand that Bitcoin is becoming an investment. If we also apply Murphy's law, we will also have to assume that all good things will come to an eventual end for a cycle.

2) Elliott Wave Theory

If we are taking into account of all the primary waves and count the subwaves of the intermediate counts, we can count for 5 waves for each impulsive and counteracting corrective intermediate waves labeled as (1)(2)(3)(4)(5), which works with higher sub-degree waves of the primary ①②③④⑤ in the circled text.

So (1)(2)(3)(4)(5) = ① degree of the primary.

Each primary and subdgree wave is divided into corrective ABC waves, which is also labeled on the chart. These corrective waves only work between the major waves of 1/2, and 3/4, respectively.

By using the Elliott Wave theory, and the theory of alternation, we can assume that this current cycle is not complete due to the shallow correction of the intermediate wave (4). Once completed (which is a matter of time, not if), will determine the final blow off top of primary wave ⑤. It is currently pending on how we will see the intermediate wave (4) play out. This will be truly an interesting narrative and we will see this ending in either some form of flat, double-triple three.

Trade Safe.
X Force
Comment: Reference to Alternations:

Comment: Reference to EW waves:


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