First Published: October 8, 2023
Introduction:
Welcome to our BTC Weekly Analysis for October, Week 1, 2023. This analysis offers continued insights into BTC price action, focusing on Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) analysis conducted on the BITSTAMP Daily, Four Hourly, and Hourly time frames. Our objective is to provide traders with unbiased, EWT-based evidence to support their decision making process.
Primary Assumption:
Our Weekly analysis builds upon the data presented in our October BTC Monthly Thesis, and the EWT count remains valid to the completion of Primary Wave 4. As a result, a count invalidation number has been established at what we believe to be the beginning of Primary Wave 5.
Macro Analysis:
Our Weekly Analysis begins with a focus on the Daily time frame, aiming to identify the wave in which current price action resides. Commencing at the start of Primary Wave 5, we observe a valid five-wave move down to the September 2023 low, effectively completing Intermediate Wave 1. Subsequently, we witness price action retracing into Intermediate Wave 2.
With confirmation that price action is currently within Intermediate Wave 2, we identify key levels at which price action is expected to retrace. Typically, Wave 2 retraces within the range defined by the Yellow 0.618 and 0.75 FIB levels, as displayed on the Daily time frame.
Wave Form Analysis:
Transitioning from the Daily time frame, our analysis shifts to the Four Hourly as we embark on our Wave Form Analysis. Our primary objective is to identify the corrective wave form that Intermediate Wave 2 is currently developing.
Wave 2 is a corrective wave, typically taking the form of a simple Zig Zag correction. However, it's worth noting that Wave 2 can occasionally manifest in alternate forms, such as a Triangle, as was the case in Primary Wave 2 of Cycle Wave C of this correction. To accurately identify the wave form that price action is adopting, we must consider all potential corrective wave structures.
After the completion of Intermediate Wave 1, price action has displayed two highs and one low, indicating that Intermediate Wave 2 is forming a three-wave pattern. Consequently, the possibility of Intermediate Wave 2 adopting a Triangle formation has been ruled out. Additionally, the Flat corrective pattern can be eliminated as Wave B did not conclude at, or beyond, the point of Intermediate Wave 1 completion.
Hence, the prevailing price action suggests that Intermediate Wave 2 is evolving as a Zig Zag correction. It's important to note that while the current price action strongly indicates a Zig Zag wave form for Intermediate Wave 2, the remote possibility of it forming an EWT Combination correction still lingers.
Assuming Wave A and B are now complete, the Four Hourly time frame reveals potential targets for Wave C completion at the Yellow 1 and 1.236 FIB levels. In cases where Wave C is extended, the target for completion shifts to the Yellow 1.618 FIB level.
Micro Analysis:
Once we have identified the wave form of Intermediate Wave 2, our analysis shifts to the Hourly time frame. Our goal is to validate the wave count and pinpoint crucial levels that signify the completion of Intermediate Wave 2, and the commencement of Intermediate Wave 3.
To confirm whether this correction takes the form of a Zig Zag, we need the three-wave correction to adhere to a 5-3-5 pattern.
Our analysis commences at the September 12 low, where Minor Wave A initiates with an impulse, establishing Minute Wave 1. Price action retraces into Minute Wave 2 prior to Minute Wave 3 which unfolded with an extended Wave 3 and 5, culminating on the September 15 high. Minute Wave 4 takes the form of a Complex EWT Combination correction, concluding on September 18. Minute Wave 5 then materializes as an Ending Diagonal, completing a valid five-wave move within Minor Wave A.
With the validation of a five-wave sequence in Minor Wave A, our focus shifts towards confirming a three-wave sequence for Minor Wave B. This sequence commences as price action forms a double Zig Zag pattern, finalizing Minute Wave A at the September 22 low. Minute Wave B unfolds as a Triangle, completing on the September 25 high. Subsequently, Minute Wave C also takes the form of a double Zig Zag, constituting a valid three-wave sequence within Major Wave B, ending on the September 25 low.
Major Wave C commenced with an impulse into Minute Wave 1, followed by price action retracing into Minute Wave 2, which completed on the September 27 low. Price action then surged into Minuette Wave 1 on the September 27 high, retracing into Minuette Wave 2, prior to Minuette Wave 3 unfolding with an extension, culminating on the October 3 high.
Presently, price action has retraced and currently resides within Minuette Wave 4, of Minute Wave 3, of Major Wave C, of Intermediate Wave 2, of Primary Wave 5, of Cycle Wave C, of Wave 4, of the Super Cycle.
Outlook:
Until price action surpasses the completion of Minuette Wave 3, our assumption is that it remains within Minuette Wave 4 of Major Wave C. We anticipate this correction taking the form of some complex EWT combination correction, given that Minuette Wave 3 concluded with an extended Wave 3 and 5, culminating in an Expanding Diagonal.
While we refrain from attempting to predict the specific nature of the correction currently unfolding within Minuette Wave 4, we can make reasonable predictions about its behavior. Price action is not expected to venture into the price territory of Minuette Wave 1. As such, we've established a Micro Count Invalidation at the completion of Minuette Wave 1. Major Wave C will remain incomplete until both Minuette Wave 5 and Minute Wave 5 have concluded. Consequently, we anticipate two additional local highs on the Daily time frame this month, with the second forming what will be the upper wick of the Monthly candle.
Should price action remain above our Micro Count Invalidation point, our expectation is for a climb to the Blue -0.236 FIB level, indicated on the Hourly time frame, which will signify the completion of Minute Wave 3. Subsequently, we anticipate a retracement into Minute Wave 4, followed by the final push to complete Minute Wave 5, Major Wave C, and Intermediate Wave 2 at the Yellow -0.236 FIB level as indicated on the Hourly chart. This event will mark a significant reversal as price action transitions from Intermediate Wave 2 into Intermediate Wave 3.
Conclusion:
Our BTC Weekly Analysis for October, Week 1, 2023, has offered valuable insights into the current state of BTC price action, and serves as a crucial bridge between our BTC Monthly Thesis, offering traders a more immediate perspective on the evolving Elliott Wave structure of BTC. As always, our aim is to empower traders with objective analysis, enabling them to make confident and well informed trading decisions in the dynamic cryptocurrency market.
Disclaimer:Please be aware that the information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be considered financial advice. Trading and investing in financial markets carries inherit risk, always conduct your own research and, if necessary, consult a qualified financial adviser prior to making any investment decisions.
Introduction:
Welcome to our BTC Weekly Analysis for October, Week 1, 2023. This analysis offers continued insights into BTC price action, focusing on Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) analysis conducted on the BITSTAMP Daily, Four Hourly, and Hourly time frames. Our objective is to provide traders with unbiased, EWT-based evidence to support their decision making process.
Primary Assumption:
Our Weekly analysis builds upon the data presented in our October BTC Monthly Thesis, and the EWT count remains valid to the completion of Primary Wave 4. As a result, a count invalidation number has been established at what we believe to be the beginning of Primary Wave 5.
Macro Analysis:
With confirmation that price action is currently within Intermediate Wave 2, we identify key levels at which price action is expected to retrace. Typically, Wave 2 retraces within the range defined by the Yellow 0.618 and 0.75 FIB levels, as displayed on the Daily time frame.
Wave Form Analysis:
Wave 2 is a corrective wave, typically taking the form of a simple Zig Zag correction. However, it's worth noting that Wave 2 can occasionally manifest in alternate forms, such as a Triangle, as was the case in Primary Wave 2 of Cycle Wave C of this correction. To accurately identify the wave form that price action is adopting, we must consider all potential corrective wave structures.
- If price action forms a Zig Zag correction, we will observe a 5-3-5 wave pattern.
- If price action forms a Flat correction, we will observe a 3-3-5 wave pattern.
- If price action forms a Triangle correction, we will observe a 3-3-3-3-3 wave pattern.
- In the event of a Combination correction, we may encounter two or more variations of these corrective wave forms.
After the completion of Intermediate Wave 1, price action has displayed two highs and one low, indicating that Intermediate Wave 2 is forming a three-wave pattern. Consequently, the possibility of Intermediate Wave 2 adopting a Triangle formation has been ruled out. Additionally, the Flat corrective pattern can be eliminated as Wave B did not conclude at, or beyond, the point of Intermediate Wave 1 completion.
Hence, the prevailing price action suggests that Intermediate Wave 2 is evolving as a Zig Zag correction. It's important to note that while the current price action strongly indicates a Zig Zag wave form for Intermediate Wave 2, the remote possibility of it forming an EWT Combination correction still lingers.
Assuming Wave A and B are now complete, the Four Hourly time frame reveals potential targets for Wave C completion at the Yellow 1 and 1.236 FIB levels. In cases where Wave C is extended, the target for completion shifts to the Yellow 1.618 FIB level.
Micro Analysis:
To confirm whether this correction takes the form of a Zig Zag, we need the three-wave correction to adhere to a 5-3-5 pattern.
Our analysis commences at the September 12 low, where Minor Wave A initiates with an impulse, establishing Minute Wave 1. Price action retraces into Minute Wave 2 prior to Minute Wave 3 which unfolded with an extended Wave 3 and 5, culminating on the September 15 high. Minute Wave 4 takes the form of a Complex EWT Combination correction, concluding on September 18. Minute Wave 5 then materializes as an Ending Diagonal, completing a valid five-wave move within Minor Wave A.
With the validation of a five-wave sequence in Minor Wave A, our focus shifts towards confirming a three-wave sequence for Minor Wave B. This sequence commences as price action forms a double Zig Zag pattern, finalizing Minute Wave A at the September 22 low. Minute Wave B unfolds as a Triangle, completing on the September 25 high. Subsequently, Minute Wave C also takes the form of a double Zig Zag, constituting a valid three-wave sequence within Major Wave B, ending on the September 25 low.
Major Wave C commenced with an impulse into Minute Wave 1, followed by price action retracing into Minute Wave 2, which completed on the September 27 low. Price action then surged into Minuette Wave 1 on the September 27 high, retracing into Minuette Wave 2, prior to Minuette Wave 3 unfolding with an extension, culminating on the October 3 high.
Presently, price action has retraced and currently resides within Minuette Wave 4, of Minute Wave 3, of Major Wave C, of Intermediate Wave 2, of Primary Wave 5, of Cycle Wave C, of Wave 4, of the Super Cycle.
Outlook:
Until price action surpasses the completion of Minuette Wave 3, our assumption is that it remains within Minuette Wave 4 of Major Wave C. We anticipate this correction taking the form of some complex EWT combination correction, given that Minuette Wave 3 concluded with an extended Wave 3 and 5, culminating in an Expanding Diagonal.
While we refrain from attempting to predict the specific nature of the correction currently unfolding within Minuette Wave 4, we can make reasonable predictions about its behavior. Price action is not expected to venture into the price territory of Minuette Wave 1. As such, we've established a Micro Count Invalidation at the completion of Minuette Wave 1. Major Wave C will remain incomplete until both Minuette Wave 5 and Minute Wave 5 have concluded. Consequently, we anticipate two additional local highs on the Daily time frame this month, with the second forming what will be the upper wick of the Monthly candle.
Should price action remain above our Micro Count Invalidation point, our expectation is for a climb to the Blue -0.236 FIB level, indicated on the Hourly time frame, which will signify the completion of Minute Wave 3. Subsequently, we anticipate a retracement into Minute Wave 4, followed by the final push to complete Minute Wave 5, Major Wave C, and Intermediate Wave 2 at the Yellow -0.236 FIB level as indicated on the Hourly chart. This event will mark a significant reversal as price action transitions from Intermediate Wave 2 into Intermediate Wave 3.
Conclusion:
Our BTC Weekly Analysis for October, Week 1, 2023, has offered valuable insights into the current state of BTC price action, and serves as a crucial bridge between our BTC Monthly Thesis, offering traders a more immediate perspective on the evolving Elliott Wave structure of BTC. As always, our aim is to empower traders with objective analysis, enabling them to make confident and well informed trading decisions in the dynamic cryptocurrency market.
