-I have been closing longs for the past week, most of which have been fairly recently. Best close IMO was 7/24. Pretty important day – it signaled the TD9 , flirted with the 61.8% fib and Weekly Resistance 2 and had a of almost 90.
-During the upswing, ( esp buying ) _generally_ continued to steadily increase until 7/24. Since, we have seen selling pressure increase and decrease. But, keep in mind this is to be expected due to the weekend.
-Today we destroyed the Weekly , Ichi Cloud Support and 180D MA (which I find to be better than 200) and reentered my log downtrend (from 1/20/18). Currently hovering at the 61.8% fib (from the move up from 7/21), 100D MA and 17D MA.
-Although still , I am looking for more down. The first area I am looking for a rebound in the 7300-7550 area, a confluence of support. Its where we consolidated before the recent upleg (also the 38.2% from May highs), Weekly S1, 78.6% of last upleg, 38.2% fib of the entire recent run and August’s Monthly (assuming a 7715 close today). I believe that last day to redeem contract is 8/1 (tomorrow) and historically we have seen large neg moved before these dates.
-If not here, I will be looking for the 6700-6900 range. The 6.7-6.9 range also corresponds with a regression model of “normal 2017 growth”, as well as, the top of June’s death range.
It currently seems to be following the middle of two trends established around 7/6/18 which tracked the Mid-June to Mid-July run.