D4rkEnergY is so happy to be back! He was banned for 24 hours for using swear words, so that's why you guys haven't heard from me. Before I'll start with the analysis, I will say some few words.
Let me be very clear! My 15,000 USD prediction will probably be wrong. I told you - I'm not afraid to admit, if I make a mistake. I will say, that every single BTC-prediction I have made here on TV has been spot on so far, but I was wrong this time. We had an Failure, which killed the scenario I illustrated for you last time.
Let me also clarify, that traders - even the best ones out there inclusive D4 - make wrong predictions ALL the time. We are dealing with uncertainty and so many unknown factors, that it's impossible to be right all the time. BUT the best traders are right most of the times and have a good riskreward-strategy.
Ok, let's begin! We are here taking a look at the 4H BTCUSD Chart. I want you first to take notice of the purple Subwave Cycle. As you can see, the ABC-correction retraced more than 100 %, which gave us a failure. So we are now back with the old Cycle in blue. The purple Subwaves have now become part of the bigger blue ABC-correction. We call this a 3-3-5 Flat Corrective pattern. Right now we are in the middle of a C-down correction.
One after another just took us further and further down. We are in a situation right now, where there are a lot of Fear, Uncertainty and Disbelief (FUD).
So the big question we have to ask our self, how low will we go before we will have a reversal?! As you can see I have illustrated the different zones in GREEN, YELLOW, ORANGE and RED, which also acts as support and bounce levels. Let's take a look at them one by one:
GREEN (8,300 USD). We have a lot support from earlier, and as you can see, it matches the 61,8 % . We have already reached that point one (2) time(s), and as predicted, we got a bounce. I would say, that it is pretty unlikely due to all the FUD lately, that we will have a big reversal at this level and will restart at new EW-Cycle. Not enough people are willing to take the risk.
YELLOW (7,300-6,900 USD). We here have a zone of confluence support. This also matches the 78,6 % Retrace. This scenario is more likely to play out. According to EW-Theory we here have an optimal retracement, and also we are way under 9,1k, where we last tried to restart the cycle.
ORANGE (6,200-5,900 USD. Also here do we have a zone of confluence support, and we will see a bounce. We here have almost a 100 % retracement of our Blue EW-Cycle. If we go under we will have another failure. D4 doesn't think this scenario will play out. We might have institutional buyers come in, which will make the scenatio more likely, but seen from a psychological point of view it has some disadvantages. People might tend to think, that last time we tried to make a reversal from this level it did't succeed, so why should we succeed this time?
RED (3,500 USD): This is the next strong we will reach. This is not a coincidence it's right there. I want you to pay attention to the purple arrows I have drawn for you. What we do to find this is to measure the length from the neckline of the inverse to the top of head and apply it to the right shoulder. This is, Ladies and Gentleman, what I will cal the worst (of the most likely) scenarios we have.
The conclusion is simple. Don't worry, guys. BTC will eventually come back and go even higher than ever, but what happened after our rejection from the inverse , has just postponed everything.
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D4 has illustrated here, what we can expect will happen. First of all the green volume bars are declining. A bear flag once again taken form, so there are 2 possibilities.
1. We will very soon fall even lower and make another flag pole.
2. We might go a bit higher and maybe test the down resistance line. But we will most likely not succeed going through due to the before mentioned FUD. We will again go lower, and as you can see will be caught in a descending triangle, and it will just be a matter of time before we will go lower.
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We can clearly see that in the bearish volume on the smaller time frames. Now I have heard a few people out there claiming and being so clever how they could predict how the market dropped from 9,650 to 9,100 in less than 10 minutes 2 days ago (which also ruined my 15k-scenario), but let be straight forward that it's just BS!
Back to Binance. So it seems like their wasn't a hack of Binance. So what happened was, that a lot people out there used trading bots on Binance, which apparently a guy hacked and made all the bots sell BTC and bough another Altcoin, which this guy already had put a lot of selling orders in, so he could make money that way. In fact Binance managed to stop some of it before it went too crazy. Again. People who claim they can predict stuff that like this will happen and shake the market like that is just ridiculous.
So to calm everyone down. Everything is till good with Bitcoin. BTC and the fundamentals are still fine :)
So back to the chart. D4 has illustrated here, really clearly how these patterns usually play out. Here are the 3 scenarios.
1. The bull, if they are strong, can keep pressuring the bears and afford to go sideways for a time, and then make a bull flag.
2. We will get rejected by the resistance down trendline and due to the descending triangle we will not be able to make 3 higher highs and we will go down via the head and shoulder pattern.
3. We will manage to go sideways and in the end we will be squeezed into the descending triangle and fall down from there.
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The big question is whether the retracement on 61,8 % (8,300 USD) was enough to send us back in an uptrend? The RSI is looking good. The MACD is also ok.
But we still have a lot of FUD out there, which might let a lot of bulls to hesitate and be more cautious.
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But as you can see now, the chart closed with a bearish inverted hammer, which means the bears managed to take the price down from 9,500 USD to 9,350 USD. This is normally a reversal pattern.
The bulls needs more volume if they want to succeed, and that's not what we are seeing. In fact the bullish volume is declining in height. D4 already told you, that we probably would witness some hesitating due to the FUD. Also the MACD shows that the bulls slowly are losing momentum.
But the battle is still not over yet. But let me just throw it out right away. Even though D4 is still super bullish on BTC in the long run, D4 would be surprised if we manage to break out right now. I think it's too early after the Mt. Gox and Binance situation. Many people are waiting patiently, and see what's going to happen the next couple of days.
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In the weekends we generally see less volume compared to the weekdays. But we have surprisingly little volume at the moment.
This really underlines my point that the FUD is here. Neither the bears nor the bulls are taking a stand.
A bull flag is still valid, and the bulls still have an opportunity to rise another flag pole, but they need more volume.
If the bulls give up and lose momentum, we will fall back in the descending triangle, and it will most likely just be a matter of time before we have to test 61,8 % again.
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No filter. We are back at 9,000 USD now. Quote from earlier:
But let me just throw it out right away. Even though D4 is still super bullish on BTC in the long run, D4 would be surprised if we manage to break out right now. I think it's too early after the Mt. Gox and Binance situation.
We are now back in the descending triangle, and we will most likely go even lower again.