Advanced Volatility Theory BTC Outlook

Ok. Went ahead and loaded up the bollinger bands of all the most relevant periods on the four hour using the heat map.

The bottom indicator is 32 different periods of bollinger bands, scaling logarithmically.

Blue and green values represent a very tight bollinger band.

Yellow and red represent a bollinger band with wayyyyy too much width. The more width on a bollinger band, the more volume will be required to cause its expansion again.

So, load up the following bands on your chart for the current outlook on BTC. The periods will change as new candles close, but these should be good for 24 hours or so.

>80 period, 1.25 stdev. (shown in orange)
Movement outside of this band is very unlikely at this time, as the "volatility overhead" of longer compressing bollinger bands clamp down around price. The 80 period is the longest period that doesn't have excessive mass, meaning any period above it is unlikely to reexpand, which means price is unlikely to go outside of the 1.25 stdev of the 80 period.

>350 period, 1.25 stdev (shown in teal)
If price reenters this band, btc is screwed and goes down to the 350 MA with high probability which is currently at 4,150. Longer periods of mean reversion can cause shorter periods to reexpand, which implies down is more probable than up (since reexpanding the 80 band to the downside would require less volume than it expanding up, as the draw of the longer period mean reversion would override it and allow the expansion of longer periods.

>1730 period, 1.25 stdev. (shown in purple)
This was the previous mean reversion target and is a pivot for sustainable trend. if we are above the 1730 mean, we will test the weekly 50 next. I do not believe we will break above the 1730 mean however.

Ultimately, a retest of the weekly 200 is likely.

If you don't understand some of the vocabulary, read this.