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** The 10500 Resistance **
This is one of BTC's crucial moments. Everyone is aware that this week the price came close to test the 10500 9-month Resistance but has (so far) failed. This is roughly the 5th test of this level in 9 months. Needless to say it is critical to break it, otherwise the longer term dynamics of the 2.5 year old Triangle will come into effect.
** The long-term Triangle **
Bitcoin has been trading within this Triangle since the All Time Highs and formed the Low on the December 2018 bottom. Since then it has been printing Lower Highs and Higher Lows with an outer and inner trend-line on key candle contacts. Notice how the 1W MA200 (orange line) is in perfect sync with the Inner Higher Lows trend-line. At the moment, this week's rejection took place exactly on the Inner Lower Highs trend-line.
It is the first time the 10500 Resistance is tested on a Lower Highs trend-line, so effectively Bitcoin has two pressure points to overcome. If it fails, then the rejection may lead the price downwards to the Inner Higher Lows trend-line (even the Outer if the stock markets have another March-like collapse) and the 1W MA200, effectively entering a new MINI BEAR PHASE.
** Bitcoin's symmetrical MINI PHASES **
We now reach the essence of this study as the title suggests. Since the December 2018 Bottom, the Triangle can be divided into phases, and . The first Bull Phase was from the December 2018 Bottom to the June 2019 High. The Bear Phase (1st) that followed the June 2019 High extended until the price made a sustainable bottom at 6500. Both Phases lasted 27 weeks. Then the two Bull and Bear phases that followed where also symmetrical in duration (5 weeks) ending on the early March 3900 Bottom. The final two Phases are where we are at now: the Bull Phase (3rd) started after the March bottom and may be potentially over with this week's High, if BTCUSD fails to break the 10500 Resistance.
This is why crossing this 10500 level is so important. If we fail again, then we may see another (3rd) symmetrical Bear Phase lasting 12 weeks (as long as the 3rd Bull Phase). Of course like I said it doesn't have to be as brutal as the previous one (unless the stock markets collapse again) there are numerous Support levels in between.
** The role of the 1W MA20 **
The MA20 on the 1W chart has a part to play on this Mini Phase classification. Every time the price makes contact with it, we are roughly in the middle of the Bear Phase and when broken it delivers a strong sell-off. Similarly during the Bull Phase. We can say that it is acting as a . So if you see confirmation of when to sell with stronger probabilities, keep an eye on the 1W MA20 cross.
Do you agree with the indications shown in this study? Will Bitcoin enter a new Mini Bear Phase if we fail to cross the 10500 Resistance again? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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** BONUS MATERIAL: the previous Phase Classification studies that I promised in the beginning and have turned out to be particularly accurate for Bitcoin long-term planning.
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