BTC: Which logarithmic resistance will be the important one?
There are two falling logarithmic resistances at play now, which could be important in the coming weeks for determining the reversal point.
The one which is obtained by connecting the ATH top with the point where the last decline started at 6500.
The other one being a not so steep one, connecting the previous smaller tops after ATH with 6500.
I tend to think more and more that the steeper one will be the one where BTC will make the reversal.
Reasons:
1. It will reach the steeper one sooner. Weekly stoch RSI has set up nicely to overbought, as I thought it would.
It will be at almost 100 overbought after the next 2 weekly candles => Perfect setup for drop
2. LTC did a nice fake-breakout from the log resistance as in 2014, pretending to be super bullish and strong. These fake-breakouts are really
dangerous and occur sometimes in crypto, especially in alts
3. The weekly bbands will be narrow enough for a drop already starting in march.
4. The drop starting in march with low in april would coincide better with the increased cycle duration of around 20%. I think we're a bit slower in this whole bull/bear cycle, the more
btc grows, the slower it gets. A low in april would be 3 months later than in 2014/15, which would fit this theory.
5. he higher resistance is still quite high, at around 5000. BTC showed great weakness the last months, therefore I cannot believe that we'll see another 1000 USD pump. This would also
put LTC too high, LTC would be at 70-90 USD, which would be too high before the drop imho.
So this is my view, as always: I could be wrong. I just present what I'm thinking.
We'll see soon when BTC nears the first logarithmic resistance, how it behaves, and then we can act accordingly.
The one which is obtained by connecting the ATH top with the point where the last decline started at 6500.
The other one being a not so steep one, connecting the previous smaller tops after ATH with 6500.
I tend to think more and more that the steeper one will be the one where BTC will make the reversal.
Reasons:
1. It will reach the steeper one sooner. Weekly stoch RSI has set up nicely to overbought, as I thought it would.
It will be at almost 100 overbought after the next 2 weekly candles => Perfect setup for drop
2. LTC did a nice fake-breakout from the log resistance as in 2014, pretending to be super bullish and strong. These fake-breakouts are really
dangerous and occur sometimes in crypto, especially in alts
3. The weekly bbands will be narrow enough for a drop already starting in march.
4. The drop starting in march with low in april would coincide better with the increased cycle duration of around 20%. I think we're a bit slower in this whole bull/bear cycle, the more
btc grows, the slower it gets. A low in april would be 3 months later than in 2014/15, which would fit this theory.
5. he higher resistance is still quite high, at around 5000. BTC showed great weakness the last months, therefore I cannot believe that we'll see another 1000 USD pump. This would also
put LTC too high, LTC would be at 70-90 USD, which would be too high before the drop imho.
So this is my view, as always: I could be wrong. I just present what I'm thinking.
We'll see soon when BTC nears the first logarithmic resistance, how it behaves, and then we can act accordingly.
Comment:
This dump is interesting. I would have expected it later. But this shows once more the current weakness of btc. As if it just can't wait to make new lows, despite having had a good run the last days.
Comment:
BTCUSD is now approaching the first logarithmic resistance line:
We'll see how it reacts there. A strong dump at this level will mean that probably the 4200 area will mark the top of this small rally.
If it goes through, the next resistance line at 4800 will become important. Here, the daily MA200 is also, and the upper weekly BBand. THerefore, extremely strong resistance. A dump from 4800 would put the final low higher, around 2400USD. A dump from 4200 would consequently put the low lower, around 1800 USD. We shall see soon.
We'll see how it reacts there. A strong dump at this level will mean that probably the 4200 area will mark the top of this small rally.
If it goes through, the next resistance line at 4800 will become important. Here, the daily MA200 is also, and the upper weekly BBand. THerefore, extremely strong resistance. A dump from 4800 would put the final low higher, around 2400USD. A dump from 4200 would consequently put the low lower, around 1800 USD. We shall see soon.
Comment:
So, we'll very soon find out if the lower resistance line is strong, or if BTC will go through. BTC is now overbought on 1w, 3d, and tomorrow also on 1d. Let's see.
Comment:
Almost touching first resistance line and 1d, 3d and 1w all massively overbought. Let's see if it can bust through, or if touching it will lead to massive dumps.
Comment:
Dumps beginning. Klick the play button and enjoy :)
Almost perfectly following the lower line. The lower log resistance thus appears to be too strong to overcome.
This could be the beginning of the large dump that finally takes us to the low of this bearmarket. Target remains unchanged: MA400 (1800USD)-MA300(2400USD)
Almost perfectly following the lower line. The lower log resistance thus appears to be too strong to overcome.
This could be the beginning of the large dump that finally takes us to the low of this bearmarket. Target remains unchanged: MA400 (1800USD)-MA300(2400USD)