Bitcoin has a 60 day cycle that can help us find lows and a 30 day cycle that can be a high or a low. It will find a low between 55 and 65 days approximately 80% of the time, but it can have a short cycle. This happened often during several oversold conditions in December through February.
Based on the 30 day cycle we had an early daily low at day 23. I was hoping to see one more low this past week and it would have been healthy for the market and a tremendous buy, but since that didn’t happen we now can confirm that we just had an early low in a 30 day cycle. Also, the 60 day cycle landed in its ideal zone, so this adds validity to the day 23 cycle.
The 60 day cycle low is still 48 days away. We could go up $10,000 and pull back and form that low at $9000. It may have also just topped out at $7700. If $7700 is the cycle high this could get nasty. I believe bitcoin could be in big trouble for a few other reasons:
My last idea I was looking for a strong low to ride a bounce. So I was generally long the last 12 days. My longs were closed when we broke the daily flag and I’m now short at $7550. I even closed out a few longer term longs I opened at $6500 due to risk of lower prices. I was expecting to eventually go lower but was hoping we would bounce to $8200-$8600 to start building a short, but didn't happen.
In the long term bear parabola research I posted in March, I suggested a low in late summer. This is no guarantee it was just a view based on historical probability.
Understanding Bitcoin Parabola and History
Since bitcoin is so different, a shorter bear cycle would not surprise me and it's not too late, but I still feel that probability is greater that we go lower and find a low later this summer.
You can see in my history I was bearish at $11500, bullish at $6500 and bearish at $9900. I still gave bitcoin a shot by going long at $7900 at the .618 and was stopped out. I felt risk reward of a wave 3 was worth it. I then bought around $7200 due to oversold conditions. This past week, I gave it a chance to go but it simple didn’t show any conviction, which why I flipped to short yesterday.
Since we are near lows, I cannot build a big short position like I did at $11500 and $9900. To some degree this is protection. I’d rather see bullish signs and build a big long at lows. I’m long term bullish, would rather trade a bullish market. But we need to some bullish conviction to get on that train.
Based on the 30 day cycle we had an early daily low at day 23. I was hoping to see one more low this past week and it would have been healthy for the market and a tremendous buy, but since that didn’t happen we now can confirm that we just had an early low in a 30 day cycle. Also, the 60 day cycle landed in its ideal zone, so this adds validity to the day 23 cycle.
The 60 day cycle low is still 48 days away. We could go up $10,000 and pull back and form that low at $9000. It may have also just topped out at $7700. If $7700 is the cycle high this could get nasty. I believe bitcoin could be in big trouble for a few other reasons:
- The last month is a confirmed down trend. We are in a downtrend until that changes and nothing on day 23 has screamed this is a strong bottom.
- After severe oversold conditions the best it could do is grind $700 and never got close to a volume break of $7700. Then rolls over with high volume. This alone is basic TA and screams bearish.
- This will be the 2nd time visiting the $7000 area and if it goes lower the 3rd time visiting the $6500 range. The more often a market visits tops and bottoms the weaker it gets. A lot of original buyers at that last $6500 will be nervous and not as likely to defend their position.
- Volume just getting lower and lower. No volume when market hits support areas either.
- Many alts have very bearish patterns, poised to make even lower lows than April. Alts have been turning down before bitcoin.
- Weekends have been bullish since January and here we are getting strong selling, tells me a lot of retail is selling.
My last idea I was looking for a strong low to ride a bounce. So I was generally long the last 12 days. My longs were closed when we broke the daily flag and I’m now short at $7550. I even closed out a few longer term longs I opened at $6500 due to risk of lower prices. I was expecting to eventually go lower but was hoping we would bounce to $8200-$8600 to start building a short, but didn't happen.
In the long term bear parabola research I posted in March, I suggested a low in late summer. This is no guarantee it was just a view based on historical probability.
Understanding Bitcoin Parabola and History
Since bitcoin is so different, a shorter bear cycle would not surprise me and it's not too late, but I still feel that probability is greater that we go lower and find a low later this summer.
You can see in my history I was bearish at $11500, bullish at $6500 and bearish at $9900. I still gave bitcoin a shot by going long at $7900 at the .618 and was stopped out. I felt risk reward of a wave 3 was worth it. I then bought around $7200 due to oversold conditions. This past week, I gave it a chance to go but it simple didn’t show any conviction, which why I flipped to short yesterday.
Since we are near lows, I cannot build a big short position like I did at $11500 and $9900. To some degree this is protection. I’d rather see bullish signs and build a big long at lows. I’m long term bullish, would rather trade a bullish market. But we need to some bullish conviction to get on that train.
Comment:
I played the bounce and not seeing any strong reversal just an oversold flag. So I took profits and now back to reshorting. I'm looking for a potential test of the breakdown at the blue line.
This area should serve as support. I don't think it will break through quickly. More likely to chop around between $6500 and $7000 and get some buying. A break of the red line and we are very likely to pick up major selling as I think it will trigger people to capitulate who went all in on that last bounce up.
I played the bounce and not seeing any strong reversal just an oversold flag. So I took profits and now back to reshorting. I'm looking for a potential test of the breakdown at the blue line.
This area should serve as support. I don't think it will break through quickly. More likely to chop around between $6500 and $7000 and get some buying. A break of the red line and we are very likely to pick up major selling as I think it will trigger people to capitulate who went all in on that last bounce up.
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I meants $6500-$6800 should be support. The blue line is the first resistance. Retesting the orange triangle wouldn't be uncommon but it looks too weak for that.
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I forgot to mention that breaking down here could actually be a good thing. A lot of times when you get a breakdown at lows, you get strong capitulation. This causes everyone to bail.
But then the market runs out of sellers and that fuels another bull market. This happened with oil about 17 years ago. And this actually turned into the big oil boom that took crude to $100. Could we be ready for the last flush that fuels bitcoin to $100k? Maybe?
I forgot to mention that breaking down here could actually be a good thing. A lot of times when you get a breakdown at lows, you get strong capitulation. This causes everyone to bail.
But then the market runs out of sellers and that fuels another bull market. This happened with oil about 17 years ago. And this actually turned into the big oil boom that took crude to $100. Could we be ready for the last flush that fuels bitcoin to $100k? Maybe?
Comment:
After such a sharp move, its no surprise we have consolidation. But I'm not seeing anything that suggests a bottom, so I expect to go lower in coming weeks.
I took profits when it hit my support zone looking for a new entry to reshort and just my first short refilled $6920. I have a lot of sell orders stacked between $6950 and $7200. Looking for a backtest of the blue break down line or the orange trendline, but I've got a good position in case we start trending down from here.
If bitcoin can get over the trend line with an hourly close, then the probability of going lower gets much worse, so I will close out. Otherwise, just be patient and wait for lower prices.
After such a sharp move, its no surprise we have consolidation. But I'm not seeing anything that suggests a bottom, so I expect to go lower in coming weeks.
I took profits when it hit my support zone looking for a new entry to reshort and just my first short refilled $6920. I have a lot of sell orders stacked between $6950 and $7200. Looking for a backtest of the blue break down line or the orange trendline, but I've got a good position in case we start trending down from here.
If bitcoin can get over the trend line with an hourly close, then the probability of going lower gets much worse, so I will close out. Otherwise, just be patient and wait for lower prices.
Comment:
I was expecting a higher bounce and never got the got re-short opportunity but still have a small short open. However, I'm really looking to go long now. BTC is still severely oversold. It can go lower, I just don't believe we will go much below $6k without a relief rally. And BTCshorts are getting high enough that they can be squeezed, so being short is dangerous. I have a tight stop to secure profit and ready to reverse when I see some better signs of a short term bottom.
In the past, BTC has a habit of forming an RSI divergence and a wedge that breaks out to an upside move (in the short term). The current price structure looks incomplete and we are on a TD5 daily, so I think there is more work to do before its ready to go up. I'm looking this move to finish in the next 1-3 days. Because we've had so much strong downside in a short time, I don't think a TD9 will market the bottom, especially if we get a big red flush candle in the next few days.
You can try longs at the bottom of the wedge with a tight stop. Especially if its in the $5800-$6000 range where we had some support in the past.
Below $5800 I would not attempt a long without confirmation. I don't mind buying support but there isn't much below $5800 so if it got below that point I would wait for a volume reversal. Hopefully a V bottom.
I was expecting a higher bounce and never got the got re-short opportunity but still have a small short open. However, I'm really looking to go long now. BTC is still severely oversold. It can go lower, I just don't believe we will go much below $6k without a relief rally. And BTCshorts are getting high enough that they can be squeezed, so being short is dangerous. I have a tight stop to secure profit and ready to reverse when I see some better signs of a short term bottom.
In the past, BTC has a habit of forming an RSI divergence and a wedge that breaks out to an upside move (in the short term). The current price structure looks incomplete and we are on a TD5 daily, so I think there is more work to do before its ready to go up. I'm looking this move to finish in the next 1-3 days. Because we've had so much strong downside in a short time, I don't think a TD9 will market the bottom, especially if we get a big red flush candle in the next few days.
You can try longs at the bottom of the wedge with a tight stop. Especially if its in the $5800-$6000 range where we had some support in the past.
Below $5800 I would not attempt a long without confirmation. I don't mind buying support but there isn't much below $5800 so if it got below that point I would wait for a volume reversal. Hopefully a V bottom.
Comment:
We got to the $6k much faster and luckily got filled but I've taken profits. We had a big volume spike at the lows but its clear that this was really just short covering with shorts spiking the last few days. Not a lot of volume in the follow through.
This is a bearish market with plenty of time to keep going down, so my main goal is to try to be short. But when panic sets it, we can buy extreme conditions like yesterday and then reshort.
So I covered my long and now have a small short position as I don't know when we'll go down again, but I'm really hoping to see bitcoin get to $6750 on this bounce to build a better position. We've went down enough short term that a bounce here wouldn't be a surprise. The $7000 area would be an even better short.
We are on day 17 and last cycle was short so higher probability that the low comes in 2 weeks or even a slightly longer cycle. The TD has a few more days to find a perfect 9 so again.
We got to the $6k much faster and luckily got filled but I've taken profits. We had a big volume spike at the lows but its clear that this was really just short covering with shorts spiking the last few days. Not a lot of volume in the follow through.
This is a bearish market with plenty of time to keep going down, so my main goal is to try to be short. But when panic sets it, we can buy extreme conditions like yesterday and then reshort.
So I covered my long and now have a small short position as I don't know when we'll go down again, but I'm really hoping to see bitcoin get to $6750 on this bounce to build a better position. We've went down enough short term that a bounce here wouldn't be a surprise. The $7000 area would be an even better short.
We are on day 17 and last cycle was short so higher probability that the low comes in 2 weeks or even a slightly longer cycle. The TD has a few more days to find a perfect 9 so again.
Comment:
Mean to say so again, we could go down for 3 days before finding the short term bottom. We just broke down the consolidation a few minutes ago so now under $6450
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It's day 19 of a 30 day cycle. It's also day 8 of a TD sequential.
I was hoping to get a better short position. We got a very quick candle after the "Ethereum isn't a security" news from the SEC, but the market just fell off. I honestly thought that this kind of news could ignite a rally but its showing a lot of weakness and seems the market really doesn't care about that news.
There's two things going on here.
1. Wea re clearly in a bearish trend with 12 days left to find a bottom
2. We are close to a TD9 that could give us a short term buy for a bounce.
With this kind of of overall weakness going long is dangerous. So if we a get a TD9 low any long. I'd look for a high volume flush candle. Maybe at $5800 area then maybe take a long on a day trade and I get out quick.Super risky going long. Every long so far is getting destroyed.
In another 2 weeks I'll be a bit more aggressive about buying a bounce as we'll be in a cycle area that gives us a better chance of finding a low for another 7-14 day bounce before we go lower.
People don't want to talk about lower prices but this entire set up looks nasty and I still think we'll go through another 30 day cycle that goes lower.
It's day 19 of a 30 day cycle. It's also day 8 of a TD sequential.
I was hoping to get a better short position. We got a very quick candle after the "Ethereum isn't a security" news from the SEC, but the market just fell off. I honestly thought that this kind of news could ignite a rally but its showing a lot of weakness and seems the market really doesn't care about that news.
There's two things going on here.
1. Wea re clearly in a bearish trend with 12 days left to find a bottom
2. We are close to a TD9 that could give us a short term buy for a bounce.
With this kind of of overall weakness going long is dangerous. So if we a get a TD9 low any long. I'd look for a high volume flush candle. Maybe at $5800 area then maybe take a long on a day trade and I get out quick.Super risky going long. Every long so far is getting destroyed.
In another 2 weeks I'll be a bit more aggressive about buying a bounce as we'll be in a cycle area that gives us a better chance of finding a low for another 7-14 day bounce before we go lower.
People don't want to talk about lower prices but this entire set up looks nasty and I still think we'll go through another 30 day cycle that goes lower.
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To clarify, any long is a quick bounce and I'm really just looking for higher prices to add to short position. Until we get above $7200, then I might consider the bull.
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Potential for this formation to break down. This would set up a nice TD8 low today or TD9 tomorrow which would be better. Maybe get us $5800. I will go long but ultimately look for a short. This could still hold of course.
Potential for this formation to break down. This would set up a nice TD8 low today or TD9 tomorrow which would be better. Maybe get us $5800. I will go long but ultimately look for a short. This could still hold of course.
Comment:
We have a break down. Need an hourly close above that line to reverse it and being oversold with shorts, we certainly need to look for that. I'll add to my short here but also will lower my stop. Again, we are so low I can't go heavy and have to be ready for a quick reversal.
Otherwise, if we get a new low, I'll be looking for reversal for the short term just for a quick trade.
We have a break down. Need an hourly close above that line to reverse it and being oversold with shorts, we certainly need to look for that. I'll add to my short here but also will lower my stop. Again, we are so low I can't go heavy and have to be ready for a quick reversal.
Otherwise, if we get a new low, I'll be looking for reversal for the short term just for a quick trade.
Comment:
This is exactly why I stayed small and tightened my stop. I got out of my short at a very small loss. That doesn't mean I'm going long. I'll just have to watch this and see whether it breaks down again or makes a bullish formation. Hopefully we get to $6750 where I can get a chance to re-short.
This is exactly why I stayed small and tightened my stop. I got out of my short at a very small loss. That doesn't mean I'm going long. I'll just have to watch this and see whether it breaks down again or makes a bullish formation. Hopefully we get to $6750 where I can get a chance to re-short.
Comment:
After sitting in that triangle all weekend we broke out to the upside.
Generally, I'm looking to get short here, but there is no hurry. This move had good momentum so I don't want to be too hasty. I want to see momentum tail off and see if we get some selling wicks that form a top.
Since we are holding gains all day, I expect to consolidate then move up to at least $6850. It could easily go back up to $7050. All the blue lines are general areas I'm looking for.
IF this goes over $7100, I will not short it until I see more evidence that it wants to go down. If we have a close over that orange trendline, then I might actually get bullish and start looking fo $8500.
So for now, we'll wait and see how the market digests this move.
After sitting in that triangle all weekend we broke out to the upside.
Generally, I'm looking to get short here, but there is no hurry. This move had good momentum so I don't want to be too hasty. I want to see momentum tail off and see if we get some selling wicks that form a top.
Since we are holding gains all day, I expect to consolidate then move up to at least $6850. It could easily go back up to $7050. All the blue lines are general areas I'm looking for.
IF this goes over $7100, I will not short it until I see more evidence that it wants to go down. If we have a close over that orange trendline, then I might actually get bullish and start looking fo $8500.
So for now, we'll wait and see how the market digests this move.
Comment:
Well... I hate to admit it but I expected us to get to 6850 so I had a sell order there. Didn't get filled.
And I was busy so couldn't get a market order in untl $6770. If I was watching, i would have at least got a 6820. We still could consolidate and even hit $7050 but not sure yet.
For the time being I'll just have to stick with my current position and then possibly add if we break lower. Or we move to $7k which would be an even better place to set up a short. Just not sure if bitcoin can make it there.
Overall my opinion is that it is highly unlikely but not impossible to get over $7100. If we do then I have to start looking bullish. I'll get stopped out and re-evaluate. Otherwise, I believe this may be the last chance that we can get into a short before this market turns south of $6k and we could form an accumulation zone until August or September, possibly longer.
Well... I hate to admit it but I expected us to get to 6850 so I had a sell order there. Didn't get filled.
And I was busy so couldn't get a market order in untl $6770. If I was watching, i would have at least got a 6820. We still could consolidate and even hit $7050 but not sure yet.
For the time being I'll just have to stick with my current position and then possibly add if we break lower. Or we move to $7k which would be an even better place to set up a short. Just not sure if bitcoin can make it there.
Overall my opinion is that it is highly unlikely but not impossible to get over $7100. If we do then I have to start looking bullish. I'll get stopped out and re-evaluate. Otherwise, I believe this may be the last chance that we can get into a short before this market turns south of $6k and we could form an accumulation zone until August or September, possibly longer.
Comment:
The move down has commenced. If bulls want to save it they need to find support in those 2 boxes then try to take it up to $7k. I will continue to stay short, possibly add to shorts if we break those support levels.
If we get under $6400 then that just erases that bullish move and I don't think it will recover from that, but you never know. I think if we lose $6300, people will get scared and you could see some fairly heavy selling.
I'm looking for a cycle low in the next week or so.
The move down has commenced. If bulls want to save it they need to find support in those 2 boxes then try to take it up to $7k. I will continue to stay short, possibly add to shorts if we break those support levels.
If we get under $6400 then that just erases that bullish move and I don't think it will recover from that, but you never know. I think if we lose $6300, people will get scared and you could see some fairly heavy selling.
I'm looking for a cycle low in the next week or so.
Comment:
I close my short on this up move. I normally don't look at 1 minute charts but this can absolutely paint a bigger picture.
The green bars on the 1 min volume were steady and much bigger than the average. We were getting consistent buying. Once that I happened I closed 50% of my short and moved down my stops. At this point, I'll just wait to see what happens.
I close my short on this up move. I normally don't look at 1 minute charts but this can absolutely paint a bigger picture.
The green bars on the 1 min volume were steady and much bigger than the average. We were getting consistent buying. Once that I happened I closed 50% of my short and moved down my stops. At this point, I'll just wait to see what happens.
Comment:
I've re-entered my short. We clearly have big sellers just over $6800. So I'm playing that as current resistance. IF get above $6850 again, I will close because at some point we'll run out of sellers. I will also close this short if we get an hourly close above that top trend line.
So if this turns bullish, I would expect us to get to $7k and I would look for a short in that area.
I've re-entered my short. We clearly have big sellers just over $6800. So I'm playing that as current resistance. IF get above $6850 again, I will close because at some point we'll run out of sellers. I will also close this short if we get an hourly close above that top trend line.
So if this turns bullish, I would expect us to get to $7k and I would look for a short in that area.
Comment:
Here is what we have so far.
BTC can't hold much above $6750 for long. Can't close above $6800. Despite two news events. ETH not being a security and tether assurances. Both of those just proved to be quick bullish moves that got sold into.
BTC is still in this wedge. The bottom was tested over night. If it drops through, there really isn't much support until $6500. That area could hold and we could from a parallel channel and try again.
If BTC can find its way back over $6800 that would be fairly bullish as its clear bears have been trying hard to drive it down. So if they can't turn this wedge break, then chances are better that the bulls can take it to $7k.
So still short here. I look to cover some over $6800 and full cover at $6850.
Here is what we have so far.
BTC can't hold much above $6750 for long. Can't close above $6800. Despite two news events. ETH not being a security and tether assurances. Both of those just proved to be quick bullish moves that got sold into.
BTC is still in this wedge. The bottom was tested over night. If it drops through, there really isn't much support until $6500. That area could hold and we could from a parallel channel and try again.
If BTC can find its way back over $6800 that would be fairly bullish as its clear bears have been trying hard to drive it down. So if they can't turn this wedge break, then chances are better that the bulls can take it to $7k.
So still short here. I look to cover some over $6800 and full cover at $6850.
Getting very oversold. I see people looking for a bounce but major support is breaking on some exchanges, so I'm looking for a good flush to $6500-$6800 area there and I think it will bounce short term. I will take partial profits on my short in that area just to book the gain, but plan to keep most of my short open and reshort any bounce