After giving it a good run, bitcoin took a few shots to break resistance at $6800. It had one dip then tried again. Every effort was sold with strong volume. Today we had a sell down to the $6700 area then spent over 12 hours in a tight $50 range hovering the bottom of a rising wedge.
The bulls took one last shot to drive it up and it was sold into at $6760. The daily closed with an inside bar and a few hours later we got a break down.
It would be very difficult for bitcoin to rally from here. So I expect that to break. The strong support is between $6350- $6400. If that holds, then bitcoin can make a move up and take another shot at $7k.
If $6400 breaks, I don't think there will be enough buyers in the $6k area to hold up price. The 2nd time seeing this area in the past few weeks is less likely to have the volume of buyers needed. We also have to remember that we spent a lot of time in this price range in April. How many more buyers are going to see this area as a value? I
The Good News
We are on day 25 of the 30 day cycle. The last cycle was short, so I expect to get to 30-33 days on this cycle. You usually don’t have 2 short cycles in a row.
So I’m looking for a lower low in the $5k area in 5-7 days. And that will be a good buying point if we get that outcome. This should actually generate a solid bounce. I don’t know if it will be THE low but we’ll be looking for signs of big buy volume. I’m generally looking for a major pivot low sometime between late July and September. (not a certainty but my best guess for timing).
The 2nd most likely option is that we hit the support in the low $6k area holds again and we essentially form a double bottom daily cycle. Again, if we can get a reversal candle in the cycle low range, then I’m still a buyer there.
The last possibility is that we somehow find support and end up breaking up over $7k and make an inverted cycle high. Bitcoin generally makes on its 60 day cycle, so the 30 day cycle is actually a half cycle that can be a high or low pivot. I believe the probability is fairly low but its bitcoin so a good piece of news could shift sentiment fast.
Right now I’m short from $6775 and moved my stops to break even and actually would liquidate some of my position with an hourly close back over $6725.
The bulls took one last shot to drive it up and it was sold into at $6760. The daily closed with an inside bar and a few hours later we got a break down.
It would be very difficult for bitcoin to rally from here. So I expect that to break. The strong support is between $6350- $6400. If that holds, then bitcoin can make a move up and take another shot at $7k.
If $6400 breaks, I don't think there will be enough buyers in the $6k area to hold up price. The 2nd time seeing this area in the past few weeks is less likely to have the volume of buyers needed. We also have to remember that we spent a lot of time in this price range in April. How many more buyers are going to see this area as a value? I
The Good News
We are on day 25 of the 30 day cycle. The last cycle was short, so I expect to get to 30-33 days on this cycle. You usually don’t have 2 short cycles in a row.
So I’m looking for a lower low in the $5k area in 5-7 days. And that will be a good buying point if we get that outcome. This should actually generate a solid bounce. I don’t know if it will be THE low but we’ll be looking for signs of big buy volume. I’m generally looking for a major pivot low sometime between late July and September. (not a certainty but my best guess for timing).
The 2nd most likely option is that we hit the support in the low $6k area holds again and we essentially form a double bottom daily cycle. Again, if we can get a reversal candle in the cycle low range, then I’m still a buyer there.
The last possibility is that we somehow find support and end up breaking up over $7k and make an inverted cycle high. Bitcoin generally makes on its 60 day cycle, so the 30 day cycle is actually a half cycle that can be a high or low pivot. I believe the probability is fairly low but its bitcoin so a good piece of news could shift sentiment fast.
Right now I’m short from $6775 and moved my stops to break even and actually would liquidate some of my position with an hourly close back over $6725.
Comment:
New lows for 2018 dipping below $5900 and now have an hourly close below $6k.
Getting close to a point where we can start looking for this low but I don't quite think we are there. So far, I'm not seeing any signs that bulls want to come in and start accumulating. The bounce from 2 days ago was weak. A few attempts at rallies were sold hard and since this afternoons selloff it hardly paused before going down.
With no signs of buyers at $6750, $6500, $6300 and $6150 today, I just don't think $5900 is going to be the place where buyers step in. Momentum is strong and $5k would test the breakout last fall and more likely to be a spot where we could see traders saying "thats low enough for now"
It's day 27 so it can form a low pivot any day. But my gut feeling is that this is going to end on monday or tuesday when the pro's are back to work. But we'll have to just see what the charts tell us.
New lows for 2018 dipping below $5900 and now have an hourly close below $6k.
Getting close to a point where we can start looking for this low but I don't quite think we are there. So far, I'm not seeing any signs that bulls want to come in and start accumulating. The bounce from 2 days ago was weak. A few attempts at rallies were sold hard and since this afternoons selloff it hardly paused before going down.
With no signs of buyers at $6750, $6500, $6300 and $6150 today, I just don't think $5900 is going to be the place where buyers step in. Momentum is strong and $5k would test the breakout last fall and more likely to be a spot where we could see traders saying "thats low enough for now"
It's day 27 so it can form a low pivot any day. But my gut feeling is that this is going to end on monday or tuesday when the pro's are back to work. But we'll have to just see what the charts tell us.
We have a full break down and didn't even pause other than an hour at the channel line. What I thought would be strong support at $6400 had too much downward momentum so we didn't get value buyers until $6300.
With this kind of selling, a bounce is due but I expect it turn down and ultimately don't believe we will stay above $6k for long. Maybe we get some double bottom buyers. But we todays candle is technically the daily sell signal so we could go 8 more days down if we get a full TD9. In other words, I'm not covering anything right now.