RogueDave

BTCUSD - Elliott Wave Analysis - BTC Alt.Counts

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Ugh, what a mess... While my preference is that BTC is still in macro-degree Wave IV following the 2980 high I label Wave III, I must at this point give serious consideration to an Alternate Count,(labeled here in Red) that against reasonable Time Duration, and against the Alternation Guideline, that BTC completed Wave IV at the 1840 low. The move up to 2938 was a larger degree Wave 1, and is supported by smaller degree wave counts. Since the move up to 2938, BTC has been correcting that advance, and may have completed a near 50% retracement at the 2400 level. Since then, the move up has completed multiple sub-wave counts, down to minutia scales, terminating at a "iii" as I write this post.

My current preferred count, is that BTC remains in Wave IV, a Flat pattern, which is in lesser degree wave 1 of 5 of C of IV. At a macro level, Flats occur and take a wave count 3-3-5. (3 waves to reach A, 3 waves to reach B, and 5 waves to terminate at C, all of which can be broken down and are composed of sub-waves in a fractal manner.) The Wave IV preference is guided by the Alternation Guideline and the Time Duration appropriate to this degree of correction represented by Wave IV.

Under the theory of a continuing Wave IV, my current preferred count in in Blue. The emerging pattern for Wave 1 of 5 of C of IV, is an declining or falling, expanding triangle, with 4 of 5 legs completed. Alternate to this remains the impulse or motive push downward to retest the former lows at 1840.
Comment: Some closer views of details. There are aspects of many of the detailed counts I do not like, in either the primary counts, or the alternative counts.

The run from 1840 to 2938

Comment: Some closer views of details. There are aspects of many of the detailed counts I do not like, in either the primary counts, or the alternative counts.

The larger correction post-2938 high.

Comment: Some closer views of details. There are aspects of many of the detailed counts I do not like, in either the primary counts, or the alternative counts.

From 2400 back up to 2825.

Comment: Thinking about the future of completing Wave IV under Blue vs Impulse and looking at the size of the Expanding Declining Reverse Triangle, adds this clarity about Wave IV:

Under Blue, it depends where E occurs. If BTC bounces off E, and E is as low as 1800-1925 then Wave IV is likely is over. It is a retest of the Wave A of C of IV lows. BTC is then on its way to Wave V, most likely.

If E is not reached, say BTC drops to 2140 in a 5 wave motive impulse, does not touch E (expanding triangle line), and does an ABC corrective wave, then resumes dropping, then BTC is back on the impulse path to IV, and waves 3 & 4 of C of IV are done, and BTC is looking for 5 of C of IV. Which may also be a retest of A of C of IV, in the neighborhood of 1850-1900.

Comment: Only if BTC breaks out to new highs above 2980 (3000) can traders and investors be certain the correction is over, regardless of the path.

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