If the Wave B of IV high at 2938 holds, here are 3 possible scenarios for how Wave C plays out. Surprise, surprise, or not, these scenarios were expressed in a prior forecast I wrote, back near the beginning of Wave IV.
Because the Wave II decline from the late 2013 high of 1160 to the early 2015 low of 152 between was deep and steep, retracing about 87% of the initial climb, and because of principle's Alternation guideline, I have been calling for a Flat for Wave IV. If you are unsure of what a Flat is, it is an initial decline, shallow (23.6%) to modest (38.2%), of the height of the wave of the same degree, in this case Wave III by my count. The initial decline to A of IV, met that perfectly. Wave A of IV is followed by a rebound to near the old high of Wave III which completes Wave B of IV. And that's where we are.
Wave C should remain shallow to modest, preferably not exceeding Wave A. Wave C sometimes extends, but normal flats are more common. For more on Corrective Waves, read this: http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets/basics3.htm For more on the "personalities" of waves, including A, B, and C segments, read this: https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:guidelines_for_applying_elliott_wave_theory
Sell Mortimer Sell!!!
Flats tend to complete in the vicinity of where Wave A completed. Look for a return to the 1800 to 1900 level.
If Wave A is any guideline for timing, look to the end of August or early September before Wave C completes.
For long only traders, you''re waiting for higher probability trades, to the upside. That means waiting for the zig-zag corrections during a wave (2) or a wave (4) . These will follow the smaller degree completions of 5 wave moves downward of the smaller degree.
The timing of the trade-able future moves at this point are a swag, though the current upside correction to complete (4) in the chart below cannot progress much higher than the 2608.96 of a of (4), since wave (1) completed its downward move at 2611.39. Further, since wave (3) cannot be the shortest motive wave, wave (5) must be shorter than wave (3), since wave (1) was longer.
What's a Truncated or Failed 5th Wave? It's when the expected move falls short, sometimes not even exceeding Wave 3. Well it did that, but not much more. Here are a couple links for reference:
In any case, the A-B-C retracement has has reached the 61.8% level, while it may continue, there's not a lot of room.
If BTC does continue upward, in my opinion, it will not zoom into the next bull market, instead the correction will morph from a traditional downward impulse or motive wave, to the Flat Top Barrier Triangle. See the chart above. This "bottom" at 2400 fits that scenario perfectly.
On to today's wave count and moves...
Again, I haven't seen any posts suggesting this. Can you provide a link to an Idea Post with this claim?
I make my case for wave 3 (or III) completing in June, and the beginning of wave 4 (IV) in the updates on this. Scroll down to the update of July 18 to see where I make my case for wave 4.
Thank you for your detailed response. Love your work.
The 5th wave idea comes partially from the Goldman Sachs paper, which claimed that the last leg of wave 4 would end at 1850.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-12/due-popular-demand-goldman-starts-covering-bitcoin. In it, they identify the completion of a 5 wave move to complete Wave III. In that count, we agree. What follows Wave III? Wave IV.
In this article dated July 3, GS analyst, "Jafari wrote bitcoin was "still in a corrective 4th wave" that "shouldn't go much further than 1,857." There is also an updated chart. http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-goldman-sachs-2017-7
I think some who are not familiar with Elliott Wave are interpreting the low I have designated as A, which is within the target zone identified by GS, as the full and complete correction of Wave IV. They are overly eager in my opinion. Yeah, cases can be made that an A-B-C has completed, my primary difficulties with those counts, are the Alternation guideline, as explained in my prior post with the case for wave 4 (or IV), insufficient complexity and insufficient time for a correction of this degree. The bull market of Wave III lasted 2.5 years. 2.5 years is going to be corrected in a little over a month? I don't think so. It is possible, but in my book, unlikely.