Bitcoin Crashes, Futures Tread Water Ahead of Powell Testimony
US Futures are treading water after yesterday's aggressive buying spree saw us recapture lost 50DMA supports across the majors. The S&P is down -0.04% to 4,212, the Dow is down -0.6% to 33,741, the Russell is down -0.31% to 2,274, and the Nasdaq is down -0.3% to 14,124 as of 9:00AM. Bitcoin is crashing and is down around -5% on the day, and down over -15% on the week. We briefly lost a 30k handle moments ago, but we're back above critical support and the permabulls are holding on for dear life. I'll see you guys at 20k very soon when more headlines circle the media about the regulatory risks, and China's evolving position on the asset.
Vix is holding on to a 17 handle after yesterday's immense beating saw us fall over 13% on the day. With more economic reality to deal with this week, I have a feeling traders are going to flock into risk protection by Friday, sending the Vix soaring. Mean while, the dollar (DXY) continues to rise, and we're about to recapture the wedge, which could be very bullish for the dollar in the short term. The US10Y yield broke back above 1.50% this morning, and we're sitting just below the 100DMA, potentially about to get another rejection at this level.
Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, will testify before Congress today on the state of the economy, and following last week's hawkish policy shift (and outlook), he will likely be grilled on the necessity for continued MBS purchases, a realistic taper timeline, and potentially when the Fed will stop aggressively widening the wealth gap by simply printing GDP growth.
We'll see existing home sales data around 10:00AM, which should be a doozy as mortgage rates continue to rise putting pressure on demand. However, with supply extremely limited, price has interim support. Analysts expect 5.71MM vs the prior print of 5.85MM.
Our live analysis begins at 9:30AM! Cheers, Michael.
* I am/we are currently long HUV, UVXY
Vix is holding on to a 17 handle after yesterday's immense beating saw us fall over 13% on the day. With more economic reality to deal with this week, I have a feeling traders are going to flock into risk protection by Friday, sending the Vix soaring. Mean while, the dollar (DXY) continues to rise, and we're about to recapture the wedge, which could be very bullish for the dollar in the short term. The US10Y yield broke back above 1.50% this morning, and we're sitting just below the 100DMA, potentially about to get another rejection at this level.
Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, will testify before Congress today on the state of the economy, and following last week's hawkish policy shift (and outlook), he will likely be grilled on the necessity for continued MBS purchases, a realistic taper timeline, and potentially when the Fed will stop aggressively widening the wealth gap by simply printing GDP growth.
We'll see existing home sales data around 10:00AM, which should be a doozy as mortgage rates continue to rise putting pressure on demand. However, with supply extremely limited, price has interim support. Analysts expect 5.71MM vs the prior print of 5.85MM.
Our live analysis begins at 9:30AM! Cheers, Michael.
* I am/we are currently long HUV, UVXY
Comment:
Bitcoin is extending losses here in the first 15 minutes of trade. On the daily time frame you can see we've just had a "death cross," where the 50DMA has converged with the 200DMA. This is usually a sign of a trend reversal, and so I expect Bitcoin to continue on it's path toward 20k, where the 100MA (w) is sitting, in short order:
