Good morning, traders. The price swings as of late have been great for shorter-term traders, but are causing havoc on investors or those holding for longer periods because they don't know what they're doing. So they allow the noise (swings) to cause them stress and then emotionally sell out of one losing position and into another even though they supposedly bought for a longer term hold. As a result, most retail traders right now are trading scared, moving from one trade to the next and losing money in the process. They continue to jump into positions almost immediately after they exit another in order to "make up" their losses. If this sounds like you, please stop. Step back and take some time away from the market to get your emotions under control. You will lose a lot more money jumping around like that, chasing price, than you will by stepping back and relaxing. The reality is that all that's happened is that price has continued moving sideways in a TR. That's it. Accept your current losses rather than trying to revenge trade your way back into profit.
My 4H chart from June 5th (www.tradingview.com/...-4H-charts-6-5-2019/) remains the most relevant at this time. While the shortest term EW count has become invalidated, the larger count remains valid for now. More importantly, the TR chart on the right side shows price exiting through the descending channel's resistance. This now projects a channel target of $8960. The expectation, after the recent $400 rise, is to see consolidation above this local resistance before the next push up. As it's been, the red horizontal line marks the weekly/monthly pivot which price has been consolidating around as it prints the larger TR. I remain cautious at this time. Until price exits the TR, we don't know for sure which way it is going. All this chop within the TR is why novice traders end up losing their money. The trends are easy, it's when you attempt to trade smaller TF sideways movement that you lose your capital.
The weekly didn't close well. We had a long-legged doji two weeks ago followed by a large bearish candle last week. Most traders consider this an indication that price is headed down, and many times it is. I have the 3D Binance BTCUSD chart attached for you to consider. The weekly 21 EMA is around $6100/$6150, so a trip lower would have me watching that level for the reversal if the two purple lines don't support price. The weekly/monthly R1 pivot remains at ~$12900, so a trip higher would have me watching that level as a target. The large descending wedge target is at ~$14500, which is the next target higher I am keeping an eye on. It still seems to me that the order block created the first week of November 2017 (highlighted in grey) is the dominant level. This is where price was supported throughout most of 2018 until the terminal shakeout in November and is the level that price is currently sitting above.
If this is wave 4 printing right now, then the black TR in the Binance chart to the left states that we should see price testing the TR's resistance next at around $9000, if not a bit higher. If it does, then we usually expect price to return toward the TR's EQ at around ~$8200 or, if there is still too much supply, we will potentially see price targeting the bottom of the TR, or just below it (watch for a wick to the 3D 21 EMA to create a Spring). As mentioned last week, if this is wave 4 printing, then we should also be watching for a pennant to print in this area on the larger TF instead of price just heading up and out. Since wave 2 was 1.5 months in duration, wave 4 should be expected to play out over a month or so. We still have a couple of more weeks before price heads higher in that scenario.
Short term, we should see price targeting the top of the ascending channel around $8400/$8450. However, be wary of the $8150/8250 level. If price is unable to move past that right now, then it will likely have to retrace toward $7950/$8000 before trying once more.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
My 4H chart from June 5th (www.tradingview.com/...-4H-charts-6-5-2019/) remains the most relevant at this time. While the shortest term EW count has become invalidated, the larger count remains valid for now. More importantly, the TR chart on the right side shows price exiting through the descending channel's resistance. This now projects a channel target of $8960. The expectation, after the recent $400 rise, is to see consolidation above this local resistance before the next push up. As it's been, the red horizontal line marks the weekly/monthly pivot which price has been consolidating around as it prints the larger TR. I remain cautious at this time. Until price exits the TR, we don't know for sure which way it is going. All this chop within the TR is why novice traders end up losing their money. The trends are easy, it's when you attempt to trade smaller TF sideways movement that you lose your capital.
The weekly didn't close well. We had a long-legged doji two weeks ago followed by a large bearish candle last week. Most traders consider this an indication that price is headed down, and many times it is. I have the 3D Binance BTCUSD chart attached for you to consider. The weekly 21 EMA is around $6100/$6150, so a trip lower would have me watching that level for the reversal if the two purple lines don't support price. The weekly/monthly R1 pivot remains at ~$12900, so a trip higher would have me watching that level as a target. The large descending wedge target is at ~$14500, which is the next target higher I am keeping an eye on. It still seems to me that the order block created the first week of November 2017 (highlighted in grey) is the dominant level. This is where price was supported throughout most of 2018 until the terminal shakeout in November and is the level that price is currently sitting above.
If this is wave 4 printing right now, then the black TR in the Binance chart to the left states that we should see price testing the TR's resistance next at around $9000, if not a bit higher. If it does, then we usually expect price to return toward the TR's EQ at around ~$8200 or, if there is still too much supply, we will potentially see price targeting the bottom of the TR, or just below it (watch for a wick to the 3D 21 EMA to create a Spring). As mentioned last week, if this is wave 4 printing, then we should also be watching for a pennant to print in this area on the larger TF instead of price just heading up and out. Since wave 2 was 1.5 months in duration, wave 4 should be expected to play out over a month or so. We still have a couple of more weeks before price heads higher in that scenario.
Short term, we should see price targeting the top of the ascending channel around $8400/$8450. However, be wary of the $8150/8250 level. If price is unable to move past that right now, then it will likely have to retrace toward $7950/$8000 before trying once more.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
You can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
