Nice green candle ... nicest I've seen in a while ... but is that it, bears done, bulls taking over the bar?
I wouldn't be too quick to assume that.
Judging by the current wave shape from 61XX ... we need this wave up to be MUCH stronger to look like an impulse wave up. That rally, although interesting, has not broken the major resistance sitting at 6900. No doubt, shorts were squeezed ... and that helped push the price up ... and there are likely further shorts that will liquidate/close if we go higher ... but does that mean game over for the movement down?
What I'm seeing is very similar conditions compared to when we hit 6736 after we bottomed out at 61XX. Longs to shorts ratio just about back to where they were back then, RSI had about the same action, and although volume on the initial spike up was larger than back on June 14, we have now fallen back to dismal levels.
So what could be happening ... let's look at the possibilities:
(a)see purple wave ... my main idea is that we are forming a leading diagonal (ABCDE wave), and we will bounce down to the bottom of the channel shown ... and after one more attempt to break the bottom of the triangle (shown in the dark red trend line) ... we start a new impulse down to the bottom anticipated by many around the 4k to 5k mark.
(b) see black wave up ... maybe this is an impulse up, but I want to see this wave up go much higher before I'll settle on that one. The wave might not be over, but there's been almost a 200 point pullback since, and BTC needs to get it's act together soon to keep the momentum going. Otherwise, we'll simply get what we got back when the SEC news was released ... a rally that fizzled and died.
(c) see black wave down ... maybe that's it for the bulls, and we don't bounce at the bottom of the channel ... could we be starting the downtrend to the local bottom now? It is a possibility, no doubt. That would mean we've completed a fairly lame ABC correction to 68XX, and trapped a few bulls, before BTC gets taken down.
I am not falling in love with this rally. Technically, a short at the top might have been the best thing to do. The channel I've drawn will be my guide ... breaking out of that will provide further evidence as to where this is going.
Remember, only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not use this info for financial decisions. For educational purposes only!
I wouldn't be too quick to assume that.
Judging by the current wave shape from 61XX ... we need this wave up to be MUCH stronger to look like an impulse wave up. That rally, although interesting, has not broken the major resistance sitting at 6900. No doubt, shorts were squeezed ... and that helped push the price up ... and there are likely further shorts that will liquidate/close if we go higher ... but does that mean game over for the movement down?
What I'm seeing is very similar conditions compared to when we hit 6736 after we bottomed out at 61XX. Longs to shorts ratio just about back to where they were back then, RSI had about the same action, and although volume on the initial spike up was larger than back on June 14, we have now fallen back to dismal levels.
So what could be happening ... let's look at the possibilities:
(a)see purple wave ... my main idea is that we are forming a leading diagonal (ABCDE wave), and we will bounce down to the bottom of the channel shown ... and after one more attempt to break the bottom of the triangle (shown in the dark red trend line) ... we start a new impulse down to the bottom anticipated by many around the 4k to 5k mark.
(b) see black wave up ... maybe this is an impulse up, but I want to see this wave up go much higher before I'll settle on that one. The wave might not be over, but there's been almost a 200 point pullback since, and BTC needs to get it's act together soon to keep the momentum going. Otherwise, we'll simply get what we got back when the SEC news was released ... a rally that fizzled and died.
(c) see black wave down ... maybe that's it for the bulls, and we don't bounce at the bottom of the channel ... could we be starting the downtrend to the local bottom now? It is a possibility, no doubt. That would mean we've completed a fairly lame ABC correction to 68XX, and trapped a few bulls, before BTC gets taken down.
I am not falling in love with this rally. Technically, a short at the top might have been the best thing to do. The channel I've drawn will be my guide ... breaking out of that will provide further evidence as to where this is going.
Remember, only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not use this info for financial decisions. For educational purposes only!