BITCOIN The Fibonacci Bands and why it is still NOT LATE TO BUY!

Bitcoin completed the much needed pull back from the $10500 top to the $8500 0.5 Fibonacci retracement. On this study I am looking at possibilities of what it could do next based on the long term Channel it has been trading in since the December 2018 market bottom.

** Similarities with early 2019 **
Initially I want to point out that I am using the help of the MA100 (blue) on the 1D chart and all projections are related to the May 11th Halving (3rd historically), which is Bitcoin's key landmark of the year. As you can see the 1D MA100 is providing Support at the moment where the price made a successful rebound at $8500.

This sequence is quite similar to the last time the 1D MA100 supported the price after a downtrend: late February - late March 2019. During that time the price consolidated for around 1.5 months before entering its parabolic pahse towards the $13800 June peak. Before reaching that peak, the price first filled the July 2018 Gap (scroll to the left if that is not visible on your screen). That took a little more that 300 days.

I have made numerous studies on why I believe the two sequences (the one that made the December 2018 bottom and the one that made the December 2019 bottom) are very similar. In that sense I am expecting the $13800 Gap to be filled around the same time the respective 2019 Gap did, which is around 70 days from now. Surprisingly enough this puts the day around the Halving date!


** The Fibonacci Bands **
Now how do all the above parameters relate to the bullish Channel that started on the December 2018 Bottom? Simple. The break through comes if you apply the Fibonacci retracements levels on that Channel. We quickly see that both the early 2019 and 2020 consolidation and rise phase were below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. I call this the "Recovery Band". As long as the price stays inside this level, long term investors will continue to accumulate BTCUSD. The zone within 0.618 - 0.382 Fibonacci is the "Fair Value Band" where Bitcoin is on its Cycle average while from 0.382 - 1.000 is the "Overbought Band" where long term investors seek to take profit.

Based on the current projection, even if we hit $13000 around the Halving date, the price will still be roughly within the Recovery Band, meaning that it will still be underpriced on the long term! This just shows the long term dynamic of Bitcoin and why the values we've seen in 2020, we will most likely not see again. And that is why I've set an end-of-year target close to $20000 (almost the All Time High).

On top of the above I want to add that the 1D LMACD is making a bullish crossover, but didn't want to include that on the chart as it would make the key information displayed already less visible.

But what fo you think? Is $13000 realistic around the Halving dates? And if so will Bitcoin still be undervalued based on the this study's Fibonacci Bands? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!

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* BONUS MATERIAL *

Recent popular study showing $13000 using the Fibonacci Boxes:

Another pre Halving approach:

October 2019 studies showing how the similarities of 2018 and 2019 helped at predicting the $6500 bottom: